GFS sez 'It is your turn, Texas'

[Portastorm]

Wednesday's 0z and 6z runs of the GFS show a developing tropical system moving westward across the Gulf with an eventual landfall in south Texas next weekend.

Check out the runs if you'd like:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

I will be curious to know if other medium-range models support this scenario. I haven't seen the Euro or CMC runs. Anyone?

Michael

[Anonymous]

That could be 95L

[no advance]

Floyd I think this is what Joe B is talking about this morning. It is those clouds NE of PRico. Looks like Kat Daddycould be under the gun.

[Derek Ortt]

95L never even mkaes it to 60W in the GFS

[Anonymous]

95L never even mkaes it to 60W in the GFS

Well, of course. The GFS always wants to recurve early.

[corpusbreeze]

It better hurry up because our season here in Texas is comming to an end in about two weeks. The first front of the season will be trying to make down and through the area. After the fronts start thats the end of the the Texas hurricane season. Besides who says its our turn, maybe we dont want to play.

[KatDaddy]

Yes I must chime in. Several AFDs are mentioning something moving across the GOM.

Here is what I posted on another thread:
AFDs not sure if its Invest 95 or the area of thunderstorms NNE of San Juan associated with a trough lifting out.

AFD Excerpts:

Houston-Galveston AFD

EXTEND-
ED GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING SOME POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PAT-
TERN OF STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN U.S.. TANTALIZING WHISP-
ERS OF A COLD FRONT FOR NEXT THURS ABOUND...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LIL
SOMETHING-SOMETHING APPROACHING FROM THE GULF. 41

Key West AFD:

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST LONG
RANGE UKMET FORECAST THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS...AND SOME BUT NOT ALL MODELS MOVE IT WESTWARD IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WITH
THE UKMET HAVING IT STILL EAST OF BAHAMAS COME MONDAY...AND THE GFS
MOVING IT OVER THE KEYS DURING MONDAY. THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL IS
NOT AVAILABLE BUT THE PRIOR RUN WAS FASTEST WITH ITS PASSAGE OF A
TROUGH OVER THE KEYS DURING SUNDAY. BACK-TRACKING FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT TIME PUTS THAT EVENTUAL TROUGH IN
THE ATLANTIC WHERE NO CURRENT TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED. THE STRONG
WAVE NOW OUT THERE IS CURRENTLY FARTHER EAST. SO WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT MAY BE IN STORE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, LOCATION, AND WHETHER ITS EVOLUTION WILL STEM
FROM ANY EXISTING TROPICAL WAVES WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. NO CHANGE
WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME TO ONGOING FORECASTS...BUT OF COURSE WIND
AND RAIN FORECASTS WILL NEED UPGRADING IF SUCH A TROUGH/WAVE
APPEARS. SORRY.
&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND PATTERN OUGHT TO STAY WITH US OVER KEYS WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. WIND DIRECTION MAY TEND
TO BE W TO NW FOR SOME STRETCHES OF TIME...BUT ATLANTIC SIDE WATERS
AND WATERS AROUND THE LOWER KEYS TO DRY TORTUGAS MAY BE QUITE
VARIABLE. STILL...LOOK FOR SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT. A TURN OF WINDS TO NE
TO E BUT STILL 10 KT OR LESS MAY BE IN STORE FRI-SAT AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETS UP A LITTLE TO OUR NORTH. WE NEED TO WATCH
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A
TROPICAL WAVE OR TROUGH FORMING EAST OF...OR OVER...THE BAHAMAS.
IT'S TOO SOON TO BE SPECIFIC.

Miami AFD:

...AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A TROUGH LINE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DRAG A WEAK OPEN WAVE TROUGH WEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE UKMET RECURVES THIS FEATURE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. IN ANY EVENT...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND AND FAVOR INTERIOR AND WEST FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IF THE OPEN WAVE TROUGH DOES MIGRATE TO THE SOUTH BY
NEXT MONDAY...EXPECT RAINY PATTERN STARTING THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT EXTENDED PACKAGE SHOWS STANDARD SCATTERED
CONVECTION. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS THE STORY
ON THIS TROUGH EVOLVES.

Texas hurricane season is still going strong and we may vunerable until mid October this year.

Oh yeah we really do not want to play this game.

[OtherHD]

95L never even mkaes it to 60W in the GFS

Well, of course. The GFS always wants to recurve early.

It's not just the GFS. The Euro develops 95L and this Gulf storm as two different entities

[GalvestonDuck]

From the Hou-Galv discussion: "A LIL SOMETHING-SOMETHING"

I've heard it all now.

[jasons2k]

When I saw the "lil" first thought was Lili.

[LaBreeze]

A local met stated last night that we could see some "tropical moisture" moving into the GOM by the middle of next week and we "may have to keep an eye on it."

[vbhoutex]

It better hurry up because our season here in Texas is comming to an end in about two weeks. The first front of the season will be trying to make down and through the area. After the fronts start thats the end of the the Texas hurricane season. Besides who says its our turn, maybe we dont want to play.

Well we definitely don't want to play unless it is just a moderate rain event.

However, I distinctly remember Hurricane Jerry coming into the SE TX coast just East of Galveston in the last week of October in 1989. Normal? maybe not, but season over????? Fat lady likes to sing when and where she wants!!!

[LaBreeze]

I have a feeling that the fat lady is still in bed sleeping - hasn't arisen yet to get ready to sing.

[Mattie]

I didn't see the headline, but on the Recovery board they were saying that NO would reopen to the people that were not flooded and they are expecting 150,000 (?) people to reenter the city next week.

I would be holding off for 95 L and the Gulf activity to see where that was going. I'd hate to see more evacuations. I hope the media is active and alert and doesn't downplay the possibilities for these people.

Another evacuation in New Orleans would be tragic.

[LAwxrgal]

Yes I must chime in. Several AFDs are mentioning something moving across the GOM.

Here is what I posted on another thread:
AFDs not sure if its Invest 95 or the area of thunderstorms NNE of San Juan associated with a trough lifting out.

AFD Excerpts:

Houston-Galveston AFD

EXTEND-
ED GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING SOME POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PAT-
TERN OF STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN U.S.. TANTALIZING WHISP-
ERS OF A COLD FRONT FOR NEXT THURS ABOUND...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LIL
SOMETHING-SOMETHING APPROACHING FROM THE GULF. 41

Key West AFD:

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST LONG
RANGE UKMET FORECAST THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS...AND SOME BUT NOT ALL MODELS MOVE IT WESTWARD IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WITH
THE UKMET HAVING IT STILL EAST OF BAHAMAS COME MONDAY...AND THE GFS
MOVING IT OVER THE KEYS DURING MONDAY. THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL IS
NOT AVAILABLE BUT THE PRIOR RUN WAS FASTEST WITH ITS PASSAGE OF A
TROUGH OVER THE KEYS DURING SUNDAY. BACK-TRACKING FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT TIME PUTS THAT EVENTUAL TROUGH IN
THE ATLANTIC WHERE NO CURRENT TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED. THE STRONG
WAVE NOW OUT THERE IS CURRENTLY FARTHER EAST. SO WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT MAY BE IN STORE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, LOCATION, AND WHETHER ITS EVOLUTION WILL STEM
FROM ANY EXISTING TROPICAL WAVES WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. NO CHANGE
WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME TO ONGOING FORECASTS...BUT OF COURSE WIND
AND RAIN FORECASTS WILL NEED UPGRADING IF SUCH A TROUGH/WAVE
APPEARS. SORRY.
&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND PATTERN OUGHT TO STAY WITH US OVER KEYS WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. WIND DIRECTION MAY TEND
TO BE W TO NW FOR SOME STRETCHES OF TIME...BUT ATLANTIC SIDE WATERS
AND WATERS AROUND THE LOWER KEYS TO DRY TORTUGAS MAY BE QUITE
VARIABLE. STILL...LOOK FOR SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT. A TURN OF WINDS TO NE
TO E BUT STILL 10 KT OR LESS MAY BE IN STORE FRI-SAT AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETS UP A LITTLE TO OUR NORTH. WE NEED TO WATCH
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A
TROPICAL WAVE OR TROUGH FORMING EAST OF...OR OVER...THE BAHAMAS.
IT'S TOO SOON TO BE SPECIFIC.

Miami AFD:

...AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A TROUGH LINE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DRAG A WEAK OPEN WAVE TROUGH WEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE UKMET RECURVES THIS FEATURE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. IN ANY EVENT...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND AND FAVOR INTERIOR AND WEST FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IF THE OPEN WAVE TROUGH DOES MIGRATE TO THE SOUTH BY
NEXT MONDAY...EXPECT RAINY PATTERN STARTING THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT EXTENDED PACKAGE SHOWS STANDARD SCATTERED
CONVECTION. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS THE STORY
ON THIS TROUGH EVOLVES.

Texas hurricane season is still going strong and we may vunerable until mid October this year.

Oh yeah we really do not want to play this game.

The GOM should be closed indefinitely until at least the year after next.

But I'll keep an eye on this one.

[KatDaddy]

Joe B says GOM system next week

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.a ... ree_column

[f5]

It will weaken it once the super duper dry starts to kick in from west texas which is a desert by the way also the first blue norther will kick that hurricane's butt.

[f5]

I didn't see the headline, but on the Recovery board they were saying that NO would reopen to the people that were not flooded and they are expecting 150,000 (?) people to reenter the city next week.

I would be holding off for 95 L and the Gulf activity to see where that was going. I'd hate to see more evacuations. I hope the media is active and alert and doesn't downplay the possibilities for these people.

Another evacuation in New Orleans would be tragic.

wow thats fast they are already done with the enviromental impact grid

[jasons2k]

I didn't see the headline, but on the Recovery board they were saying that NO would reopen to the people that were not flooded and they are expecting 150,000 (?) people to reenter the city next week.

I would be holding off for 95 L and the Gulf activity to see where that was going. I'd hate to see more evacuations. I hope the media is active and alert and doesn't downplay the possibilities for these people.

Another evacuation in New Orleans would be tragic.

wow thats fast they are already done with the enviromental impact grid

Yes, I'm confused, even after the water drains the soil will still be toxic. Maybe we should have a topic on this in the other forum, but it concerns me they want to get people back so fast that they are avoiding the whole 'toxic soup' issue.

[southerngale]

From the Hou-Galv discussion: "A LIL SOMETHING-SOMETHING"

I've heard it all now.

For as long as I can remember, when there's a disturbance in the GOM or the Caribbean or anywhere if it's early in the season, my mom, my sister and I (whoever sees it first) will call the others and say "there's a lil something there that wasn't there before" in a certain tone. We know exactly what that means. With my addiction to Storm2k the last few years (and on other boards before that), I tend to know things first these things first now.