Tropical Storm Ophelia

[f5]

NWS at ILM had a faux pas this morning. Check it out. Maybe Ophelia was a blizzard. Nah, the temperature didn't qualify.

i can't believe it Ophelia is a nor'easter

[Nimbus]

So far, is it trending more west then they thought it would or is it right on course? A local ems official who is a friend told me that the storm took a jog north around 10:30 am and that that would bring the stronger winds closer to our area, NE North Carolina.

I would be freezing some water jugs and moving the car out from under the tres if I were you. When the power goes off it can take a few days for the crews to get it fixed.

[txwatcher91]

How come the NHC hasn't shifted their track wastward any? It appears that it is going further west than they anticipated. Should I be worried here in Greenville, NC?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... owlabels=1

[JtSmarts]

I think Ophelia looks very similar to this July 96' Hurricane.

[orion]

hey everyone... thought some of you might like seeing this site if you haven't already seen it.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/radar/part1/index.html

You can either download the powerpoint or download individual slide images... here is a quote from the site about what it is...

"This slide series was created locally to help jog the memory of our station meteorologists in the understanding of radar principles, doppler velocity interpretation, the pre-storm environment and fundamental techniques of tracking and identifying storms."

~orion

[seahawkjd]

so what is the answer to the question? Is it still on track or west of it?

[Three Blind Mice]

Governor of NC just said it will be upgraded to CAt 2 status tonight !!!!!!!!!!!

News conference.

[Terry]

Ummm, I thought I heard him say it could or might be upgraded to a Cat2.

[GaryOBX]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS LOST POWER...

WFO NEWPORT HAS LOST COMMERCIAL POWER AND THE BACKUP GENERATOR HAS
FAILED. WFO WAKEFIELD WILL BE ASSUMING SERVICE BACKUP DUTIES.

NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATIONS KECG-84 FROM NEW BERN...KIG-77 FROM CAPE
HATTERAS...WWH-26 FROM MAMIE...AND KXI-95 FROM WARSAW WILL BE OFF
THE AIR UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

[Jim Hughes]

Heads up Emerald Isle and Morehead City! "O" had more of a punch than we expected from a Cat 1 on the west side. Lots of branches down. Your area is Bullseye for landfall unless a turn to the NE happens soon. Take Care.............

That's another thing. Ophelia has not made landall so all of the weather stations , except bouys of course, are on the western side. Or north and not by the eye wall.


Jim

[Frantastic]

How come the NHC hasn't shifted their track wastward any? It appears that it is going further west than they anticipated. Should I be worried here in Greenville, NC?

txwatcher91,

I can't tell because it is moving so slow and the center of circulation is so big. Looks like Greenville is getting some heavy downpours now. Just started getting steady rain and gusts here.

[jasons2k]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS LOST POWER...

WFO NEWPORT HAS LOST COMMERCIAL POWER AND THE BACKUP GENERATOR HAS
FAILED. WFO WAKEFIELD WILL BE ASSUMING SERVICE BACKUP DUTIES.

NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATIONS KECG-84 FROM NEW BERN...KIG-77 FROM CAPE
HATTERAS...WWH-26 FROM MAMIE...AND KXI-95 FROM WARSAW WILL BE OFF
THE AIR UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

OH GREAT!! Some people rely on NOAA Weather Radio when their own power fails.

[txwatcher91]

Is it me or is the eye shrinking? If it is, doesn't the wind usually go up and the pressure down?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... owlabels=1

[krysof]

when the hurricane is relatively below major hurricane range, when a large eye gets smaller, it usually means strengthening from what I hear. A strong Category 2 or greater expand their eye over time to strenghten further

[jasons2k]

Is it me or is the eye shrinking? If it is, doesn't the wind usually go up and the pressure down?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... owlabels=1

As a general rule, yes.

[Three Blind Mice]

JB might be right on target with his 970 mb!!! That's going to set somebody off here I;m sure.

ILM -starting to see large trees on very scatttered basis down. Ground saturated with strong gusts taking it's toll. Lots of limbs, leaves etc on roadways. Drains often clogged creating driving hazards of pooling water on roads.

[Brent]

so what is the answer to the question? Is it still on track or west of it?

It looks to be right on track to me...

[dgparent]

4 p.m. Update: Wrightsville Beach is seeing wind gusts up to 79 mph while 12 inches of rain has fallen in Brunswick County, where flooding is now a major threat. Meanwhile, Ophelia slowly drifts up the coast and could intensify to a Category 2 hurricane Wednesday night.

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z WED SEP 14 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH
OF LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 77.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 200SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 77.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 77.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.8N 76.4W...NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NC
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.3N 75.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 74.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 37.5N 72.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 41.3N 65.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 46.0N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 49.0N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 77.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...OPHELIA MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL WITH STRONG WINDS RAKING THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH
OF LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES
EAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE
LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS TONIGHT... AND OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.1 N... 77.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART