Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

Jan do you have the 12z NOGAPS?

[Brent]

I very seriously doubt this turns north... especially if it only slowly strengthens which looks likely. It may turn north once it gets into the Caribbean but by then it's too late.

[x-y-no]

Jan do you have the 12z NOGAPS?

The navy site has the 12Z data up ... hadn't looked at it yet ...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

EDIT: Doesn't develop it much ... takes it through the windward islands, but then turns sharply north before Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Umm the 12z NOGAPS is like GFS but has the system over the lesser antilles and then goes north from there.Thank you Jan.

[CHRISTY]

how can post pic and model limks on here?

[MiamiensisWx]

It depends on how strong the ridge is and how the trough will affect the ridge. It also depends on the extent and strength of the trough and how far north INVEST.95L will be or possibly might be.

Don't several models eventually indicate a ridge weakness? Also, what models indicate a more persistent, stronger ridge?

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 12.2N 46.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 16.09.2005 12.2N 46.5W WEAK

12UTC 16.09.2005 13.1N 48.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.09.2005 14.7N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.09.2005 16.2N 51.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.09.2005 16.6N 52.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.09.2005 17.7N 53.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.09.2005 17.9N 54.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.09.2005 18.7N 55.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.09.2005 19.6N 56.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 20.09.2005 20.5N 58.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


12z UKMET sees also a weakness and has the system moving NE of the islands.

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks, cycloneye!

Also, what do the models say on the wave east of the Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico, cycloneye? How strong do they expect it to get? Will there be any inhibiting factors the models mention?

[apocalypt-flyer]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 12.2N 46.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 16.09.2005 12.2N 46.5W WEAK

12UTC 16.09.2005 13.1N 48.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.09.2005 14.7N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.09.2005 16.2N 51.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.09.2005 16.6N 52.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.09.2005 17.7N 53.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.09.2005 17.9N 54.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.09.2005 18.7N 55.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.09.2005 19.6N 56.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 20.09.2005 20.5N 58.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


12z UKMET sees also a weakness and has the system moving NE of the islands.

That would indicate a Frances - like track ..

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050914 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050914 1800 050915 0600 050915 1800 050916 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.2N 44.1W 9.3N 46.2W 9.3N 48.4W 9.1N 50.7W
BAMM 9.2N 44.1W 9.5N 46.4W 10.1N 48.3W 10.6N 49.9W
A98E 9.2N 44.1W 9.2N 46.9W 9.3N 49.8W 9.2N 52.6W
LBAR 9.2N 44.1W 9.5N 46.6W 10.1N 49.3W 10.7N 52.2W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050916 1800 050917 1800 050918 1800 050919 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.9N 53.0W 9.1N 56.7W 9.3N 59.6W 10.5N 62.9W
BAMM 11.2N 51.1W 12.8N 51.8W 14.8N 51.4W 18.0N 51.5W
A98E 8.8N 55.0W 9.3N 59.0W 9.5N 62.7W 10.5N 66.4W
LBAR 11.2N 55.3W 12.3N 60.2W 14.1N 63.0W 15.1N 63.8W
SHIP 59KTS 71KTS 79KTS 87KTS
DSHP 59KTS 71KTS 79KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.2N LONCUR = 44.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 9.1N LONM12 = 41.3W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.1N LONM24 = 38.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Models.

[CHRISTY]

can 95L be a threat to florida next week?

[vaffie]

VERY SPECULATIVE:

It looks to me like it will enter the Ccaribbean. It could strengthen a lot too. SHIPS brings it to a hurricane one to two days before it even gets to the Antilles. The last two or three visible images show a very good circulation under good convection. It almost looks like a strengthening tropical storm already. I think it will eventually hit Central America or become a Gulf storm. If it does, the whole Gulf coast is under threat, as we're moving to the latter part of the season and cold fronts will already be moving into the gulf frequently by then, so it could easily recurve and hit the central or eastern gulf. It's just early enough that it still could pose a great threat to the western gulf, so keep your fingers crossed too. This could be a monster of a storm by the time it's traversed all that open warm water. The other wave northeast of Puerto Rico might affect the area a couple days earlier--it too has potential, though perhaps not as much, to become strong, at least until later in the period--you can see increasing convection in the area right now--it is a good three days behind 95L in development speed--perhaps it might cause some kind of weakness forcing 95L more north in the long run. Anyway, those are my thoughts.
-vaffie

[jasons2k]

VERY SPECULATIVE:

It looks to me like it will enter the Ccaribbean. It could strengthen a lot too. SHIPS brings it to a hurricane one to two days before it even gets to the Antilles. The last two or three visible images show a very good circulation under good convection. It almost looks like a strengthening tropical storm already. I think it will eventually hit Central America or become a Gulf storm. If it does, the whole Gulf coast is under threat, as we're moving to the latter part of the season and cold fronts will already be moving into the gulf frequently by then, so it could easily recurve and hit the central or eastern gulf. It's just early enough that it still could pose a great threat to the western gulf, so keep your fingers crossed too. This could be a monster of a storm by the time it's traversed all that open warm water. The other wave northeast of Puerto Rico might affect the area a couple days earlier--it too has potential, though perhaps not as much, to become strong, at least until later in the period--you can see increasing convection in the area right now--it is a good three days behind 95L in development speed--perhaps it might cause some kind of weakness forcing 95L more north in the long run. Anyway, those are my thoughts.
-vaffie

I agree with your line of thought, it will be very interesting to see what synoptic features will be in play when/if it reaches the GOM.

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Just when you thought it was safe to get back into the water....


Anyway, without a well defined center fix we cannot read that much into the specifics of the models' tracks. I would not rule out a track close to us on either side at this point.

Luis, did you notice that the latest Nogaps at 144 seems to suggest that at least one more will try to spin from where this one is brewing?

[cycloneye]

Yes PuertoRicoLibre here is the graphic of NOGAPS that shows another system behind 95L.

[Scorpion]

Hopefully it doesnt fizzle like TD 10 .

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks like it may be starting to try to spin, based on the infra-red floater. Notice that?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

Has much better, more concentrated convection now.

[cajungal]

The latest model runs don't look a GOM threat anymore. Looks more likely that it will recurve.

[skysummit]

The latest model runs don't look a GOM threat anymore. Looks more likely that it will recurve.

I hope this comes to be fact later down he road. Cajungal, could you imagine what would happen if it were a threat to the northern gulf coast?

[Scorpion]

Its very low latitude so I doubt it.