Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[MiamiensisWx]

The latest model runs don't look a GOM threat anymore. Looks more likely that it will recurve.

Agreed. They have now done somewhat more of a northward adjustment.

[deltadog03]

remember, models will shift all over the place....including globals...its very low lat...and the longer it remains weak, it will be steered by the low level winds....we will see

[Huckster]

And the re-curve war begins...

"Models turn it out to sea, no threat."

vs.

"It's still far south, and it's not well defined...the models are on crack!"

[cjrciadt]

And the re-curve war begins...

"Models turn it out to sea, no threat."

vs.

"It's still far south, and it's not well defined...the models are on crack!"

[krysof]

with a storm far out in the atlantic, the recurve scenario will always be here, I say it will be a fish, but because the bad luck i'm having it won't be a fish

[vaffie]

And the re-curve war begins...

"Models turn it out to sea, no threat."

vs.

"It's still far south, and it's not well defined...the models are on crack!"

Don't you love it!? It's so entertaining. It makes you want to jump in, doesn't it?

[cajungal]

This may be Phil the Fish. Hopefully

[skysummit]

:fishing: This may be Phil the Fish. Hopefully

If so, could we call it "Dr. Phil" ?

[Anonymous]

Keep in mind, the name is French, pronounced "FA-LEEP"

[O Town]

And the re-curve war begins...

"Models turn it out to sea, no threat."

vs.

"It's still far south, and it's not well defined...the models are on crack!"

[truballer#1]

hot waters down where invest is

[MiamiensisWx]

It is gradually getting better organized and defined...

[cjrciadt]

[LAwxrgal]

What are the BAM models seeing that the others aren't? Why would the storm curve that sharply to the north?

[MiamiensisWx]

What are the BAM models seeing that the others aren't? Why would the storm curve that sharply to the north?

A trough that is coming through is expected by several (but not all) models to weaken the ridge, potentially allowing a more northward movement or a progressively more northward movement (e.g., first west, then west-northwest, then northwest, then finally a more northerly path). About half of the models indicate this scenario might occur. If it does that, the system might strengthen more.

[LAwxrgal]

What are the BAM models seeing that the others aren't? Why would the storm curve that sharply to the north?

A trough that is coming through is expected by several (but not all) models to weaken the ridge, potentially allowing a more northward movement or a progressively more northward movement (e.g., first west, then west-northwest, then northwest, then finally a more northerly path). About half of the models indicate this scenario might occur. If it does that, the system might strengthen more.

Wouldn't a stronger system move more poleward anyway regardless to the presence or absence of a trough?

[MiamiensisWx]

Wouldn't a stronger system move more poleward anyway regardless to the presence or absence of a trough?

Well... that is true in a sense. Stronger systems tend to attempt to move on a more northerly track (e.g., west-northwest, northwest, etc.); however, a stronger ridge can keep even strong systems on a west or west-northwest track.

For now, I think INVEST.95L may pass east of Florida and the Bahamas; however, conditions may change. There does seem to be trend in the models toward a weaker ridge and more shear later on, though, which may steer the system away from the U.S. (such as Florida) or, if it continues on a more westerly track, shear it off and weaken it potentially. Another scenario that it might be steered away from Florida but impact the Carolinas.

[hicksta]

What are the BAM models seeing that the others aren't? Why would the storm curve that sharply to the north?

A trough that is coming through is expected by several (but not all) models to weaken the ridge, potentially allowing a more northward movement or a progressively more northward movement (e.g., first west, then west-northwest, then northwest, then finally a more northerly path). About half of the models indicate this scenario might occur. If it does that, the system might strengthen more.

Wouldn't a stronger system move more poleward anyway regardless to the presence or absence of a trough?

System that are strengthing ussually do pull a little mroe N

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 142057
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA.

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS LARGE
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Fodie77]

This is definitely a "wait and see" storm.