"The Big One for the Big Easy" by Mike Naso

[vbhoutex]

Vertical evacuation is a good option in some buildings, but not all. Obviously, glass ones are not a good option in a lot of cases. Even if there are halls, etc. to get into the windows being blown out opens up the inside to winds and rain also, besides the flying glass. Of course, if you can survive that it is better than drowning in a storm surge. Best bet is to evacuate early. I always say better safe than sorry.

[jeff]

Vertical evacuation should NOT be considered above cat 2 intensity. Given the wind profiles the top of high rise buildings will sustain considerable damage. Also if the bottom floors are under water there is the threat for wave action to undermine the floor slab and supports and result in severe structural failure similar to that seen with Ivan.

I think vertical evacuation came about as a last resort/emergency idea where it was known that not everyone would get out of the surge zones in time. Now everybody wants to use it first as it is easier and requires little sitting in traffic.

The end result of any significant vertical evacuation in any major coastal city such as NO, MIA, or HOU will be very bad.

[skysummit]

I agree with one of the previous posters on this...

If a CAT 4 or CAT 5 would hit SE La at just the right spot, New Orleans would be getting winds of well over 100mph before the eye even crosses the coast. Since there will not be much coast left, it really won't much of a difference. People who have never seen SE La., cannot picture what our land looks like. We all know that Miss, Ala, and Florida coasts look like and we tend to think...ok, it's like that but with marshes. That's totally untrue. There are many many lakes, some of which are not even shown on maps. These lakes and channels are 20-50 feet deep on a normal day. Put the rising water on top of that, and you have gulf front property on the Westbank.

Nevertheless, when ever this does happen, it will not be a pretty picture, and most likely will be the worst natural disaster that this country has ever seen.

[x-y-no]

Vertical evacuation should NOT be considered above cat 2 intensity. Given the wind profiles the top of high rise buildings will sustain considerable damage. Also if the bottom floors are under water there is the threat for wave action to undermine the floor slab and supports and result in severe structural failure similar to that seen with Ivan.

I think vertical evacuation came about as a last resort/emergency idea where it was known that not everyone would get out of the surge zones in time. Now everybody wants to use it first as it is easier and requires little sitting in traffic.

The end result of any significant vertical evacuation in any major coastal city such as NO, MIA, or HOU will be very bad.

I absolutely agree. Vertical evacuation is what you do if you've screwed up and stayed when you shouldn't have. It shouldn't be "the plan."

Jan

[cajungal]

I agree with one of the previous posters on this...

If a CAT 4 or CAT 5 would hit SE La at just the right spot, New Orleans would be getting winds of well over 100mph before the eye even crosses the coast. Since there will not be much coast left, it really won't much of a difference. People who have never seen SE La., cannot picture what our land looks like. We all know that Miss, Ala, and Florida coasts look like and we tend to think...ok, it's like that but with marshes. That's totally untrue. There are many many lakes, some of which are not even shown on maps. These lakes and channels are 20-50 feet deep on a normal day. Put the rising water on top of that, and you have gulf front property on the Westbank.
Where do you live, skysummit? It seems like you live pretty close to me. I live just north of Houma. (Schriever) And yeah, I am one that relate to what you are talking about, because I also live here.
Nevertheless, when ever this does happen, it will not be a pretty picture, and most likely will be the worst natural disaster that this country has ever seen.

[skysummit]

Where do you live, skysummit? It seems like you live pretty close to me. I live just north of Houma. (Schriever) And yeah, I am one that relate to what you are talking about, because I also live here.

I live right near Southland Mall in Houma. I'm constantly on the road down here. I work for a wireless provider and am in charge of the entire southshore with an enphasis from New Iberia to Houma to Lockport to Boutte and Donaldsonville.

You don't have to go too far from where we live to reach water!

[MGC]

Rainfall in not the worst problem facing NO in a major hurricane. Without a doubt it is the tidal surge. Sure 15 inches of rain would cause problems but the city has had rainfalls of that magnitude in the past. But once the water starts spilling over the top of the levees there is nothing that can done. After Betsy the levees were holding the water in St. Bernard Parish and several breaches had to be cut to allow the water to drain. As far as vertical evacuation is concerned, it should be used as the last option. If it is flooding you have no choice. When water rises to your rooftop you will seek a higher place.......MGC

[skysummit]

For Georges, they used the Superdome as an evacuation shelter. If N.O. experiences cat 4 or 5 winds, I'd think the Dome would be one of the first roofs to be ripped off. It's just support beams that extend from and to each perimeter. There is absolutely no support in the middle.

Maybe a good evac shelter would be the World Trade Center Building along the River. It has a club on the top floor, Club 360, that spins. At least we'd have something to do....since it's already spinning, would it really matter? j/j

[Radar]

Skysummit,

Remember to pack your motion sickness pills in your hurricane evacuation kit before going to Club 360

[TS Zack]

To sum it all up.

If your in New Orleans and a Hurricane is coming. EVACUATE!

Number one you will need to vertical evacuate because the water will be over your home. The first problem will probably be how to get out. Bring a chainsaw with you in your attick. Bring Floaties, because you may be doing that for awhile. Not to mention the millions of snakes, and other wildlife trying to save their lives. There is a good chance you will not survive because of the diseases and other harmful things after the water sits for so long. See this isn't just the Hurricane, its what to expect afterwards. Its not like any other city, its New Orleans! The water will be here for awhile, and emergency workers will not get to you for awhile.

New Orleans will not be there! New Orleans Will Be Inhabitable For Months.

[cajungal]

Where do you live, skysummit? It seems like you live pretty close to me. I live just north of Houma. (Schriever) And yeah, I am one that relate to what you are talking about, because I also live here.

I live right near Southland Mall in Houma. I'm constantly on the road down here. I work for a wireless provider and am in charge of the entire southshore with an enphasis from New Iberia to Houma to Lockport to Boutte and Donaldsonville.

You don't have to go too far from where we live to reach water!

Oh, okay. I work at the mall. Sears. In the shoe dept.

[TSmith274]

This is really interesting. Especially the question about wether or not a hurricane can be sustained by it's own storm surge. Obviously, a hurricane of this size would have open water all the way to the New Orleans levee system under this scenario. I wonder if it's ever been studied.
Anyway, I'm just wondering if any of you have had the chance to read the front-page article in the Times Picayune detailing a possible floodwall to extend alongside the twin-span to Slidell. If this were put into place, it would block the storm surge from entering Lake Ponchartrain, saving New Orleans from lake water pouring over the floodwalls. I'll try to find a link and post it, if possible.

[TSmith274]

Here it is...
"The most unusual of the four would add a third bridge to I-10 between New Orleans and Slidell and equip it with huge side panels that could be raised and lowered to keep a potentially deadly storm surge out of Lake Pontchartrain...."


And here's the full article...
http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/frontpage/index.ssf?/base/news-3/1117261665146240.xml

[george_r_1961]

The scenario described by Floydbuster, while a nightmare, isnt all that far fetched at all. Havng lived in New Orleans I can attest to the fact that flooding does occur in your ordinary air mass type thunderstorms that occur there. The pumps quickly have the streets clear though. But there is no way the pumping system could even handle the rain from an approaching storms outer squalls; by the time the rain shield reached the coast the city would already be under several feet of water as a result of not just rain but the storm surge and the battering waves overwashing the levees. Whatever the winds in a major hurricane didnt destroy the water would. then theres the aftermath. People with no food, no power, no drinking water. Dead animals and people laying everywhere, increasing the threat of disease. Military medical teams, mainly Army combat medics and Navy Corpsmen would have to be sent in because its unlikely civlians without military training would be able to operate under these conditions. Hospitals would be destroyed, and the sick and injured would need to be helicoptered out to hospitals unaffected by the storm. This could take days and hundreds if not thousands of people might die waiting for help or waiting to be rescued. Many people would have to airlifted further inland hundreds of miles due to hospitals being swamped. My estimated time for NO to recover from this: several years..not months. and it is doubtful the city would ever be the same again.

[skysummit]

Where do you live, skysummit? It seems like you live pretty close to me. I live just north of Houma. (Schriever) And yeah, I am one that relate to what you are talking about, because I also live here.

I live right near Southland Mall in Houma. I'm constantly on the road down here. I work for a wireless provider and am in charge of the entire southshore with an enphasis from New Iberia to Houma to Lockport to Boutte and Donaldsonville.

You don't have to go too far from where we live to reach water!

Oh, okay. I work at the mall. Sears. In the shoe dept.

Hey....cool! I'll have to stop by for a visit one day

[JTD]

The scenario described by Floydbuster, while a nightmare, isnt all that far fetched at all. Havng lived in New Orleans I can attest to the fact that flooding does occur in your ordinary air mass type thunderstorms that occur there. The pumps quickly have the streets clear though. But there is no way the pumping system could even handle the rain from an approaching storms outer squalls; by the time the rain shield reached the coast the city would already be under several feet of water as a result of not just rain but the storm surge and the battering waves overwashing the levees. Whatever the winds in a major hurricane didnt destroy the water would. then theres the aftermath. People with no food, no power, no drinking water. Dead animals and people laying everywhere, increasing the threat of disease. Military medical teams, mainly Army combat medics and Navy Corpsmen would have to be sent in because its unlikely civlians without military training would be able to operate under these conditions. Hospitals would be destroyed, and the sick and injured would need to be helicoptered out to hospitals unaffected by the storm. This could take days and hundreds if not thousands of people might die waiting for help or waiting to be rescued. Many people would have to airlifted further inland hundreds of miles due to hospitals being swamped. My estimated time for NO to recover from this: several years..not months. and it is doubtful the city would ever be the same again.

George, that was an amazingly prescient post. amazingly.

Floydbuster, very well written scenario. Who would have thought that the peak pressure would have been about 10 mb lower than the lowest in your scenario though?

This thread nailed everything that happened exactly (while except for track but that's impossible to predict months ahead of time with a storm that doesn't even exist)

[LAwxrgal]

Floydbuster: go back and change "Erin" to "Katrina" and then alter your best track a little -- and you got it. You did get the storm's gender right. LOL

[jasons2k]

VERY interesting reading thru this thread now. I'm almost speechless, now over 2 weeks later...

[LAwxrgal]

VERY interesting reading thru this thread now. I'm almost speechless, now over 2 weeks later...

Yeh, just about everything that was predicted to happen has It's kind of surreal actually. It's one thing to talk about this going on, but then to actually see it happen, unfold on a national and global scale... it's just surreal.

[jasons2k]

VERY interesting reading thru this thread now. I'm almost speechless, now over 2 weeks later...

Yeh, just about everything that was predicted to happen has It's kind of surreal actually. It's one thing to talk about this going on, but then to actually see it happen, unfold on a national and global scale... it's just surreal.

So true, and glad you are OK as well. I've been reading your story in the other forum. Thanks for posting and best of luck getting through the long road ahead.