GFS sez 'It is your turn, Texas'

[KatDaddy]

HPC map is interesting

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

[stormcloud]

After October 1 it's a little more difficult for storms to approach Texas from the southeast. If Texas gets hit in October, many times the storm has moved out of the BOC.

[Kelarie]

From Austin NWS....it mentions something in the Gulf...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
305 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...INTENSE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT MAY BRING OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW NIGHT..OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE INTENSE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF STATES TUESDAY AS A WAVE FEATURE OVER THE GULF MOVES TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ATMOPSHERIC MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

[cajungal]

Hopefully the rest of the hurricane season will go down the drain like this. No more.

[susan]

Eventually Texas will get a slap..Hopefully not this year..

[tailgater]

I didn't see the headline, but on the Recovery board they were saying that NO would reopen to the people that were not flooded and they are expecting 150,000 (?) people to reenter the city next week.

I would be holding off for 95 L and the Gulf activity to see where that was going. I'd hate to see more evacuations. I hope the media is active and alert and doesn't downplay the possibilities for these people.

Another evacuation in New Orleans would be tragic.

wow thats fast they are already done with the enviromental impact grid

Yes, I'm confused, even after the water drains the soil will still be toxic. Maybe we should have a topic on this in the other forum, but it concerns me they want to get people back so fast that they are avoiding the whole 'toxic soup' issue.

I think they are speaking of the Jefferson Parish residents and some Orleans parish residents Not effected by the flooding also St Tammany residents.
I like Mattie think they are trying to get these people back in a little quick.

[jasons2k]

Some interesting links:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_oct.htm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_oct.htm

TX drops off the map in October

[jimbo]

Some interesting links:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_oct.htm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_oct.htm

TX drops off the map in October

I think forecaster Franklin of the NHC said something to the effect:

'The 2005 season has no regard for climatology.'

While maybe not exactly correct, I feel it's worthy of notice. There are other threads with this statement quoted, sorry I don't have the time to track them down.

Cheers as loon would opine.

[Rainband]

Mexico

[Swimdude]

From the Hou-Galv discussion: "A LIL SOMETHING-SOMETHING"

I've heard it all now.

Hey, if I was a professional met, i'd be writing all sorts of crazy stuff in those updates as well. I actually thought that was a joke at first... Hehe.

[hicksta]

Some interesting links:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_oct.htm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_oct.htm

TX drops off the map in October

Hurricane Jerry i think. Oct 29?

[jasons2k]

Some interesting links:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_oct.htm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... ob_oct.htm

TX drops off the map in October

I think forecaster Franklin of the NHC said something to the effect:

'The 2005 season has no regard for climatology.'

While maybe not exactly correct, I feel it's worthy of notice. There are other threads with this statement quoted, sorry I don't have the time to track them down.

Cheers as loon would opine.

How ironic, this was posted last night:

"One thing I will not forget until the end of the season was the comment from Franklin at the NHC on 7/12/05:

"SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.""

By none other than me in this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... t=#1054588

[Portastorm]

Here's a snippet from the late-evening forecast discussion out of Austin:

LOOKING AHEAD, 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

[GOLDEN_GIRLS]

I think the Hurricane is going to hit Mexico

[KatDaddy]

Right in time for the wet phase of MJO. Models are determine with this scenario. Also the trough lifting out will allow the disturbed weather NNE of Puerto Rico to head W. We could actually a tropical system for TX yet this season.

[susan]

The hurricane will head towards Mexico? Nothing has even formed yet....

[skysummit]

The hurricane will head towards Mexico? Nothing has even formed yet....

It's a troll.

[no advance]

The system NE of PR looks like a real thing. I just cant see it not recurving east of Fl. Any comments?

[skysummit]

The system NE of PR looks like a real thing. I just cant see it not recurving east of Fl. Any comments?

Isn't that the system that was mentioned to move across south Florida, into the gulf, and toward Texas?

[corpusbreeze]

Seems all the models today bring a low into the GOM. That system NE of Purto Rico looks to have broke free like JB said it would and is starting the move west. Thats got to be the system the models see moving into the gulf, if not I wonder if the models are seeing the system east of the islands?