Ophelia & 95L and the wind

[Jim Hughes]

Ophelia had hung on pretty well during the previous 24 hours considering a good deal of her western side, especially the NW , was over land for most of the time until recently. I have heard time and time again how storms have weakened because they were interacting with the land prior to them making landfall.

Ophelia was also not over the Gulf Stream either. I had read some previous comments about the waters being around 26-27c.

Convection around the eye has died off recently and she does not look all that impressive. Her pressure has risen and she has weakened by 5 mph and she now has a wind speed of 80 mph.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The same can be said for 95L recently also....not as impressive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I have been following some of the posts about 95L since yesterday and I also heard TWC's Dr. Lyons talk about a possible LLC in a earlier tropical update few hours ago. It looked to me like he had high hopes for 95L , and likely so...but he seemed to be singing a different tune though at the 10:50am update.

What has happened?

Take a look at the ACE2 hourly solar wind speed averages now.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... pam_1h.txt

Or SOHO's charts (Top one)

http://UMTOF.umd.edu/pm

Or take a look at how the cosmic rays levels are being effected at Oulu's neutron monitor. I spoke about it in my last discussion. (GCR's)

http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi

The solar winds had been waxing and waning between the 530-580 km/sec range during the previous 24 hours up until about 15/0830z. Then we saw it start to pick up considerably after the arrival of a CME. They have since risen to about 850 km/sec level.

It looks like the models are having a problem again and the atmosphere seems to have changed again....or less reliable ...model standpoint. So Ophelia might be wondering up and down the coast again.

We also had another X-Class flare earlier this morning.


http://www.sel.noaa.gov/today.html

Ophelia may only have hit/brushed North Carolina but allot of people are suprised that she did not make landfall. It definitely looked like she had to yesterday afternoon.... Now I DID NOT forecast her to make landfall but I have continually pointed out about the solar wind speed level of 500 km/sec and fish storms.

The lowest hourly average since mid day on the 9th has been 530 km/sec. This occurred at 15/05z....This was also around the time that 95L was looking even better. So there have been no TD formations since 9/6 and we just happen to see the solar wind level drop close to 500 km/sec range for the first time in 6 days and then we have a CME arrive...the solar wind rapidly rises to around 850 km/sec ....and things do not look as good now...some 8-10 hours later.

I know some pople will disregard this as a coincidence again and I am already aware of that but I am very confident that the skpetics will come around one day. Why? Because they are going to move down the ladder in the forecasting department if they do not.

I have seen some sharp forecasters at storm2k and I feel pretty confident that some of them might eventually consider what I am talking about. And if they incorporate space weather with the conventional meteorlogical wisdom ....they will end up passing the other forecasters like they are standing still.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

I have fixed floater URL's...I hate posting them.


Jim

[gtalum]

Interetsing post.

Is it your theory that higher-velocity solar winds might inhibit storm development?

Or do I have it backwards?

[Jim Hughes]

Interetsing post.

Is it your theory that higher-velocity solar winds might inhibit storm development?

Or do I have it backwards?

Yes I believe higher solar winds inhibit storm development but there are other important variables to also consider....Like right now the extremeness of the particle levels... because of all the increased space weather... may help a system develop into a TD when it usually would not...if the solar winds were above the the 500 km/sec level. So this important level might need to be bumped up slightly during times like this.

I also think it is very important to consider if the solar wind speed is diminshing or rising and I stressed this point out in my last discussion about Ophelia two days. The solar wind speed dropped considerably...by about 40% prior to her strengthening phase.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

)

I know some pople will disregard this as a coincidence again and I am already aware of that but I am very confident that the skpetics will come around one day. Why? Because they are going to move down the ladder in the forecasting department if they do not.

I have seen some sharp forecasters at storm2k and I feel pretty confident that some of them might eventually consider what I am talking about. And if they incorporate space weather with the conventional meteorlogical wisdom ....they will end up passing the other forecasters like they are standing still.


Jim

I wanted to clarify something. I do not want the above statement to be misinterpeted. I do not consider myself to be any better than any other forecaster at storm2k. I sincerely wish that I had the meteorological training/knowledge that many other individuals have.

My forte has always been long term forecasting/climatology...amateur wise..

My closing statement was in reference to anyone willing to incorporate the methodology of both. I know I lack the proper meteorological training and nobody will ever hear me say differently.


Jim

[Ivanhater]

)

I know some pople will disregard this as a coincidence again and I am already aware of that but I am very confident that the skpetics will come around one day. Why? Because they are going to move down the ladder in the forecasting department if they do not.

I have seen some sharp forecasters at storm2k and I feel pretty confident that some of them might eventually consider what I am talking about. And if they incorporate space weather with the conventional meteorlogical wisdom ....they will end up passing the other forecasters like they are standing still.


Jim

I wanted to clarify something. I do not want the above statement to be misinterpeted. I do not consider myself to be any better than any other forecaster at storm2k. I sincerely wish that I had the meteorological training/knowledge that many other individuals have.

My forte has always been long term forecasting/climatology...amateur wise..

My closing statement was in reference to anyone willing to incorporate the methodology of both. I know I lack the proper meteorological training and nobody will ever hear me say differently.


Jim

i knew what you were saying jim, i always like to hear what you have to say, its very interesting

[gtalum]

That's interesting Jim. Thanks for the explanation.

In that case, let's hope the solar winds stay in high gear for a while.

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey jim can you speaka de english? What is the average joe explination?

[Jim Hughes]

Hey jim can you speaka de english? What is the average joe explination?

I am sorry but I am not sure what you mean. Explanation for what?

The main purpose of my post was to point out that what I have talked about many times over..... has occurred. ...once again.


Jim

[Windy]

Hey jim can you speaka de english? What is the average joe explination?

He's basically trying to forecast tropical weather using solar wind data alone. Kinda like trying to forecast the stockmarket by reading tea leaves.

[nequad]

Ophelia had hung on pretty well during the previous 24 hours considering a good deal of her western side, especially the NW , was over land for most of the time until recently. I have heard time and time again how storms have weakened because they were interacting with the land prior to them making landfall.

Ophelia was also not over the Gulf Stream either. I had read some previous comments about the waters being around 26-27c.

ummm....I beg to differ. Ophelia did track across the Gulf stream southeast of Wilmington. It was no coincidence that convection was able to redevelop as the center was over the warmer waters.

The center tracked right over buoy 41013 yesterday. This buoy may not be right in the gulf stream, but it is close. Water temp at that buoy yesterday was 81F. All day yesterday the right semi-circle of Ophelia was
drawing power from the warmer waters of the gulf stream.

Last night when the center was near Cape Lookout a large portion of the circulation was still over the gulf stream and Ophelia created some of the deepest convection of her life span after midnight last night. What caused her to weaken rapidly was dry air at the mid and upper levels from the mid-lattitude system that passed her by to the north last night.

[Jim Hughes]

Ophelia had hung on pretty well during the previous 24 hours considering a good deal of her western side, especially the NW , was over land for most of the time until recently. I have heard time and time again how storms have weakened because they were interacting with the land prior to them making landfall.

Ophelia was also not over the Gulf Stream either. I had read some previous comments about the waters being around 26-27c.

ummm....I beg to differ. Ophelia did track across the Gulf stream southeast of Wilmington. It was no coincidence that convection was able to redevelop as the center was over the warmer waters.

The center tracked right over buoy 41013 yesterday. This buoy may not be right in the gulf stream, but it is close. Water temp at that buoy yesterday was 81F. All day yesterday the right semi-circle of Ophelia was
drawing power from the warmer waters of the gulf stream.

Last night when the center was near Cape Lookout a large portion of the circulation was still over the gulf stream and Ophelia created some of the deepest convection of her life span after midnight last night. What caused her to weaken rapidly was dry air at the mid and upper levels from the mid-lattitude system that passed her by to the north last night.

Like I said I was going by what someone else had said. Being partially over the gulfsteam...81 degrees is not like being over it. Ophelia also strengthened before hand. What about it not weakening while being continually over land. Systems in the warm gulf do this . And why has she weakend now.

Look I never change the rules of what I have spoken about. I say thhe atmosphere responds ...and at times ... it already knows.... because of the relationship with the IMF.


Jim

[gpickett00]

Hey jim can you speaka de english? What is the average joe explination?

He's basically trying to forecast tropical weather using solar wind data alone. Kinda like trying to forecast the stockmarket by reading tea leaves.

Why are you downplaying what he does. He likes what hes doing and he spends a lot of time doing it. You probably dont understand it anyway

[Jim Hughes]

Hey jim can you speaka de english? What is the average joe explination?

He's basically trying to forecast tropical weather using solar wind data alone. Kinda like trying to forecast the stockmarket by reading tea leaves.

Your imaturity always shows Windy. I do not just use the solar wind alone and I have NEVER SAID that. I am sorry that you do not understand space weather. Nor have you ever tried to read up on it..I know your busy...Same exuse. You can argue for days about who's at fault with the Katrina rescue operation but you can not read a 8-10 page research article? Please who's fooling who? We both know why just admit it.

What recent forecast of mine was innaccurate? Did you make one ? How many people said that Ophelia would strengthen by 10 mph before landfall? Not that it could or might that is completely different.

My prior three Ophelia outlooks were also right on target. Some were made well before NHC/ other people. I called for a weakening trend while others did not. You claim that my theories are baseless ..like reading tea leaves...I think your accusations are baseless. No facts to back them up just your opinion.


Jim

[kevin]

Windy, I feel your pain.

Publish a study Jim. Publish a study.

Jim by the unconquerable sun Mithras, if you publish a study in a scientific journal, I will read the whole blasted thing.

[Jim Hughes]

Windy, I feel your pain.

Publish a study Jim. Publish a study.

Jim by the unconquerable sun Mithras, if you publish a study in a scientific journal, I will read the whole blasted thing.

I was wondering when you were going to pop up Kevin

People talk about me and Methan Mike...You and Windy sure show up allot together.

I will pass on all discussions regarding studies....,theories... etc. I am not going to be baited into having this thread go a way that I never intended. Sorry....You and Wndy can have the floor from here on out. It's your stage time fellows. Let's see your act.


Jim

[Deb321]

Jim I find your information interesting. Maybe you are on to something that will take years for most people to understand. Many ideas have been put out there before and it took years for people to grasp them and understand there was so evidence of truth in that idea. I can see you put alot of research and time into what you do.

[Jim Hughes]

Jim I find your information interesting. Maybe you are on to something that will take years for most people to understand. Many ideas have been put out there before and it took years for people to grasp them and understand there was so evidence of truth in that idea. I can see you put alot of research and time into what you do.

Thanks. I know it's a topic that not many people have ever read about before so this makes it harder to understand at first but I believe over the long run they can learn. I did and it's not like I have a PHD .....Well maybe I do ...A ponnies... horses... degree...I use to bet horses quite frequently.


Jim

[kevin]

Windy, I feel your pain.

Publish a study Jim. Publish a study.

Jim by the unconquerable sun Mithras, if you publish a study in a scientific journal, I will read the whole blasted thing.

I was wondering when you were going to pop up Kevin

People talk about me and Methan Mike...You and Windy sure show up allot together.

I will pass on all discussions regarding studies....,theories... etc. I am not going to be baited into having this thread go a way that I never intended. Sorry....You and Wndy can have the floor from here on out. It's your stage time fellows. Let's see your act.


Jim

Don't care much for acting. This is your show Jim. And it will have the rabble attending until you get published in a scientific journal. If everyone else whose theories we learn had to publish and get reviewed, so will you. And I look forward to reading your paper when you produce an acceptable discussion.

[NastyCat4]

Had beans for dinner. Wonder what impact the wind will have upon Ophelia?