Potential for 95L...Significant system or dud?

[Frank2]

After taking a glimpse at some of the models for early next week, in my opinion it seems that 95L might become a "semi-fish" system - not recurving totally, but at least initially heading northwest into the Atlantic and far enough north of Puerto Rico to at least have it not considered a threat to Florida - we'll see.

Considering that Ophelia has left a substantial trough behind in it's wake (and it's still stationary at this time, and weakening), it's possible that this deep trough will linger just long enough to allow for a recurving of 95L (we're still in westerlies here in South Florida, which demonstrates just how deep this trough is for this time of year).

Frank

[jax]

After taking a glimpse at some of the models for early next week, in my opinion it seems that 95L might become a "semi-fish" system - not recurving totally, but at least initially heading northwest into the Atlantic and far enough north of Puerto Rico to at least have it not considered a threat to Florida - we'll see.

Considering that Ophelia has left a substantial trough behind in it's wake (and it's still stationary at this time, and weakening), it's possible that this deep trough will linger just long enough (we're still in westerlies here in South Florida, which demonstrates just how deep this trough is for this time of year).

Frank

that's just great.... that's what all the model were doing with Katrina...

[gtalum]

Conditions are different than they were for Katrina.

[jasons2k]

After taking a glimpse at some of the models for early next week, in my opinion it seems that 95L might become a "semi-fish" system - not recurving totally, but at least initially heading northwest into the Atlantic and far enough north of Puerto Rico to at least have it not considered a threat to Florida - we'll see.

Considering that Ophelia has left a substantial trough behind in it's wake (and it's still stationary at this time, and weakening), it's possible that this deep trough will linger just long enough (we're still in westerlies here in South Florida, which demonstrates just how deep this trough is for this time of year).

Frank

that's just great.... that's what all the model were doing with Katrina...

Still want one Jax??

[Frank2]

Yes, different - and a month later, and this close to the encroaching Fall weather pattern, that can make a big difference.

Frank

[DESTRUCTION5]

After taking a glimpse at some of the models for early next week, in my opinion it seems that 95L might become a "semi-fish" system - not recurving totally, but at least initially heading northwest into the Atlantic and far enough north of Puerto Rico to at least have it not considered a threat to Florida - we'll see.

Considering that Ophelia has left a substantial trough behind in it's wake (and it's still stationary at this time, and weakening), it's possible that this deep trough will linger just long enough to allow for a recurving of 95L (we're still in westerlies here in South Florida, which demonstrates just how deep this trough is for this time of year).

Frank

Frank Lets not do this again....You already put the biggest jinx in American history on us..

[jax]

it's not that i want one... but... if one comes... bring it.
I will do all i can to protect my family and friends...
We are Mississippi... we can handle it... with very little
complaing. I have spent the last 2 weeks helping and
being helped. I have seen the best in my friends and
strangers. Our spirits are high here. We lost alot... and
we are recovering. If it comes... so be it. we can
handle it. JMHO

[DESTRUCTION5]

After taking a glimpse at some of the models for early next week, in my opinion it seems that 95L might become a "semi-fish" system - not recurving totally, but at least initially heading northwest into the Atlantic and far enough north of Puerto Rico to at least have it not considered a threat to Florida - we'll see.

Considering that Ophelia has left a substantial trough behind in it's wake (and it's still stationary at this time, and weakening), it's possible that this deep trough will linger just long enough (we're still in westerlies here in South Florida, which demonstrates just how deep this trough is for this time of year).

Frank

that's just great.... that's what all the model were doing with Katrina...

Still want one Jax??

LMAO...Jax...How did the house fair?

[Frank2]

Re: DESTRUCTION5's post

First, that's a silly comment, and second, I'm a Christian, fella - don't mention "jinx" to me...

Frank

[jasons2k]

it's not that i want one... but... if one comes... bring it.
I will do all i can to protect my family and friends...
We are Mississippi... we can handle it... with very little
complaing. I have spent the last 2 weeks helping and
being helped. I have seen the best in my friends and
strangers. Our spirits are high here. We lost alot... and
we are recovering. If it comes... so be it. we can
handle it. JMHO

I've been very impressed with the way MS has handled this. Glad u are OK.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Re: DESTRUCTION5's post

First, that's a silly comment, and second, I'm a Christian, fella - don't mention "jinx" to me...

Frank

Yea Im a Christian too...And it may have been a silly comment but it has nothing to do with calling FL safe when a system is sittin at the lattitude of 10...Thats just Wrong...

[jax]

lost my roof... no flooding. My biz partner last her house and our
employee lost hers. My father had 8 feet of water and the walls blown
out. My business is just getting back online.

I snuck into Pascagoula the morning after the storm loaded down with
cold drinks, ice, water, food, medical supplies... and strong arms. I
helped old people pull carpet and sheatrock... probably gave out
50+ free hugs to people that really needed them. I did that for the first
week... non stop. I can't tell you how many good good people i have met
that i would not have if not for this storm...

[Brent]

Re: DESTRUCTION5's post

First, that's a silly comment, and second, I'm a Christian, fella - don't mention "jinx" to me...

Frank

Yea Im a Christian too...And it may have been a silly comment but it has nothing to do with calling FL safe when a system is sittin at the lattitude of 10...Thats just Wrong...

Exactly... I'll be shocked if this recurves at such a low latitude. If it were at 15 N, then I would say it was much more likely, but this is simply too far south.

[MBismyPlayground]

lost my roof... no flooding. My biz partner last her house and our
employee lost hers. My father had 8 feet of water and the walls blown
out. My business is just getting back online.

I snuck into Pascagoula the morning after the storm loaded down with
cold drinks, ice, water, food, medical supplies... and strong arms. I
helped old people pull carpet and sheatrock... probably gave out
50+ free hugs to people that really needed them. I did that for the first
week... non stop. I can't tell you how many good good people i have met
that i would not have if not for this storm...

Jax, isn't it wonderful that something so awful and horrendous can bring out such unselfish and wonderful acts of kindness among people?? Day by day we all tend to go about our life, never really paying much attention to things and people around us. Everything fades into the background if it doesn't apply to us or our lives. And then POOF...something happens........we see things and people that we passed by 25 times a day and realize just how much we have been missing; And realize how much we have to be grateful for.

I am so glad you made it thru this and are still trying to make others a bit happier, day by day.

[LarryWx]

Considering that Ophelia has left a substantial trough behind in it's wake (and it's still stationary at this time, and weakening), it's possible that this deep trough will linger just long enough to allow for a recurving of 95L (we're still in westerlies here in South Florida, which demonstrates just how deep this trough is for this time of year).

Frank

My take is that if it goes NNW east of the Lesser Antilles as per dynamic model consensus, it would have a pretty good chance to end up being a fish (as that is pretty consistent with post 9/15 climo) although a fish would still not be a lock by any means. However, I'm not even buying into those models being correct yet as it has remained so far south. If it doesn't develop into a TD east of 55W and it subsequently enters the Caribbean as a TD moving WNW, I feel the risk to the U.S. would be pretty significant in terms of probability and potential strength.

[clfenwi]

Reply to clfenwi:
I should have been more specific. It's 9/15, the chances of a storm in the location of 95L forming and tracking through the Caribbean into the Gulf and affecting areas W of FL are lower than they were a few weeks ago and I'm basing that only on the calendar and history. A N or W Gulf track would take @10 days from the 95L spot. Of course it could happen, but If it were going to effect the CONUS the chances are higher for FL or EC.

Despite the clarification, I am not much closer to agreeing with you than previously.

Looking at September and later storms that passed within 200 nm of where the system is now, only two managed an east coast hit (Florida, in both cases): Dora of '64 and Hurricane #4 of 1947. Both formed in August

Gulf coast landfalls include the aforementioned Ivan and Lili (which didn't form until September 21) , as well as Frederic (formed in August).

The balance of the storms either fizzled or hooked to sea.

For kicks, I looked at the history of August storms as well. Three hit the east coast (David '79, Doria '71, and Betsy '61) while Allen managed to hit the gulf coast.

From what I've looked at (as described here) it is reasonable to argue that the chances of a turn to sea are greater as time passes on, but I don't see anything to suggest that the odds of a gulf coast landfall (vice east coast landfall) are any different. To the contrary, I would put an east coast landfall at the bottom of the probabilities (given the three choices of gc landfall/ec landfall/turn to sea.

[LarryWx]

From what I've looked at (as described here) it is reasonable to argue that the chances of a turn to sea are greater as time passes on, but I don't see anything to suggest that the odds of a gulf coast landfall (vice east coast landfall) are any different. To the contrary, I would put an east coast landfall at the bottom of the probabilities (given the three choices of gc landfall/ec landfall/turn to sea.

I do feel it is safe to say that a TD+ moving WNW into the eastern Caribbean in mid-late SEP or very early OCT has a much better chance to hit the Gulf coast vs. the East coast. Of course, it could still fizzle, move too far south, or, in rare instances. recurve.

[Nimbus]

95L is better developed than 92L was so I give it a two out of three chance of getting to be a TD. The other area of convection being whipped up near the ULL over Puerto Rico looks temporarily impressive but is there any surface feature?

[f5]

Thats where Ivan formed last year

[susan]

Yeah but each storm and year and climates are different...