Area NE of PR....Area to Watch!

[Vortex]

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A LOW
PRESSURE WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE...AND MOVE IT TROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO AT THIS TIME PLAN
ON KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME MORE IN LINE WITH
EACH OTHER ON THE DEVELOPMENT OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW.

ONCE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD GET BACK TO A LATE TIME SUMMER PATTERN
WITH THE TYPICAL NIGHT TIME AND MORNING ACTIVITY EAST COAST AND
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS. IF A LOW DOES DEVELOP ON THE WAVE...THEN THE WINDS MIGHT
HAVE TO BE INCREASE IN LATER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS WEEKEND IN THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC AND IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF SIDE. AGAIN...IF THE
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE WAVE THEN THE SEAS MIGHT HAVE TO BE
INCREASE IN LATER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

[Scorpion]

Could be another Katrina here(not like in the GOM though). Who knows could even intensify to a Cat 1.

[Vortex]

brings a tropical storm across S.FL/Keys

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_084.jpg

[Scorpion]

Interesting to say the least. It seems this year that double landfalls are common. IE Arlene/Dennis, Bret/Gert/Jose, Cindy/Katrina, and now maybe Katrina/Phillipe?

[CHRISTY]

wow can this be a hurricane before florida? i really think people should start paying more attention to this!can you post more models showing this as a storm hitting southflorida. can this really happen??

[Nimbus]

Looks like an upper level feature just to the west may be enhancing the convection. Maybe they will mention it in the next update.

[Scorpion]

wow can this be a hurricane before florida? i really think people should start paying more attention to this!can you post more models showing this as a storm hitting southflorida. can this really happen??

Well anything is possible. It can be a wave, it can be a hurricane. Just depends on how things pan out.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im keeping an eye out on it. I remembe that most of us here almost completely ignored the feature that became Katrina and then it hith FL and then look what happened afterwards. Ill just sleep with one eye open and another closed.

<RICKY>

[Shoshana]

Interesting to say the least. It seems this year that double landfalls are common. IE Arlene/Dennis, Bret/Gert/Jose, Cindy/Katrina, and now maybe Katrina/Phillipe?

Bret/Emily/Gert/Jose all hit Mexico this year ... and not all that far apart.

And it would be Cindy/Katrina/Phillipe .... but I sure hope not!

[x-y-no]

Im keeping an eye out on it. I remembe that most of us here almost completely ignored the feature that became Katrina and then it hith FL and then look what happened afterwards. Ill just sleep with one eye open and another closed.

<RICKY>

Huh? The Ex-TD10 and assorted barely related blobs of convection thread was nearly a record-setter in length.

Anyway, as regards this thing, it needs a much less sheared environment to develop. Right now, the weak wave axis is a good 2 degrees ahead of the convection. If the trough ahead splits and the resulting ULL dives SW as I think may happen, then conditions should improve in a day or two, so it's possible this develops in the Bahamas. Equally possible, IMHO, is that it crosses SFL as a weak low.

[susan]

Lets not forget that this storm has not even been declared yet, storms follow their own path, and mother nature does not keep score...

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME...BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Rainband]

Just what we need.

[bvigal]

If it does develop, look out. I've never seen such black skies down here, and lots of lightning, too. The cells seem to have lessened in intensity the last 20 minutes - according to radar. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/jua_NCR_lp.shtml

[CHRISTY]

i think it has a good chance of development!convection has been persistent all afternooon but well see what happens!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Look at this convection with it

[CHRISTY]

what are models saying about this wave right now?

[jkt21787]

what are models saying about this wave right now?

Only the global models are running since this isn't even organized enough (yet) to be an invest. The globals are trying to show something headed toward FL, but its too early to tell for sure whether that is a credible solution. The models can be horrible when tracking a very young, still largely undeveloped system.

[CHRISTY]

wow that thing just keeps growing by the hour!

[CHRISTY]

once you have an image from another web site how do you put it on here??? need help!