Area NE of PR....Area to Watch!

[CHRISTY]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/goeseasthurrir.html[/url]

[MiamiensisWx]

Right now, there is 20KT shear in Florida and the Bahamas ahead of it. The latest shear tendency chart shows the shear is increasing as well. This is probably why - along with all the other uncertainty - most models don't do much with it until it gets in the Gulf of Mexico. Florida may be saved of a strong storm once again.

[THead]

Great, we'll get 20 inches of rain from this blob as a wave over s. fla., then get hammered by 95L as a monster, with the ground saturated........there goes my imagination again.......


PS. This is of course not an official forecast etc etc, please see the NHC for all official news and predictions etc etc...

[MiamiensisWx]

Shear may save us, though. However, I just can't take another afternoon thunderstorm! Also, it would insult those who want a monster at landfall.

We are not in drought... no more rain of any type or thunderstorms!

Right now, I don't expect a strong system to form from the Puerto Rico wave due to shear or a threat from INVEST.95L because of a weakness in the ridge. Many models indicate this weakness and for INVEST.95L to move northwest through the weakness, sparing Florida but impacting - potentially - the Carolinas or Georgia (more likely the Carolinas).

On the Puerto Rico system - most models move it over the Keys ir southern Florida; however, most expect a weak system with lots of rain until the Gulf of Mexico, where greater development may occur.

[Scorpion]

Shear maps are innacurrate. We're talking about a week in advance here. No model can predict shear that far in advance with any accuracy.

[fci]

Couple of comments:

- I think we can handle more rain before the dry season comes. Hasn't rained here in several days; actually since the birth of Ophelia off the coast, Labor Day weekend.

- This is not a week away. 1000 miles at 10 MPH is about 4 days or so.
(Probably should not quibble over this but as long as I am being contrary...

[CHRISTY]

national hurricane says conditions may become favorable in a few days for this wave?LET ME ASK THIS QUESTION ABOUT 95L WHY IS THERE SO MUCH INTEREST IN THIS WAVE IS IT BECAUSE OF ITS FUTURE TRACK BECAUSE EVERYTHING IVE READ SAYS THIS TO GO BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN OTHER WORDS (FISH) BUT WHO KNOWS? AT THIS TIME IS THE WAVE NEAR PUERTO NEEDS TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE IT CONTINUES TO FLARE UP TONIGHT..

[THead]

Couple of comments:

- I think we can handle more rain before the dry season comes. Hasn't rained here in several days; actually since the birth of Ophelia off the coast, Labor Day weekend.

- This is not a week away. 1000 miles at 10 MPH is about 4 days or so.
(Probably should not quibble over this but as long as I am being contrary...

It is amazing how much rain s. fla can handle. It kind of just runs right off the edges.

[x-y-no]

All the globals take the wave currently N of PR pretty much due W or even a little south of W all the way to Mexico. CMC develops it fastest (before reaching FL), but none of them go nuts with developing it.

It's still seriously sheared by the upper trough in front of it, but it looks like the trough split is beginning to happen. If the cut off ULL dives SSW as I think it will, the environment should improve, maybe in 2 days or so.

[rainstorm]

everyone should remain vigilant

[krysof]

so how many things are out there, and which one is most likely to develop?

[johngaltfla]

Local weather here in Tampa just highlighted the blob. They said it does bear watching as does 95L.

Ugh.

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME...BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[deltadog03]

to me, this looks better than 95L

[jasons2k]

JB says to watch this one, he thinks it will come into the GOM, the models may be too far north with it, so Texas keep an eye on it. Not a LA/MS/AL threat.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest infra-red imagery. Has good convection, although it is sheared off somewhat.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Here is the latest visible imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

[jasons2k]

Here is the latest infra-red imagery. Has good convection, although it is sheared off somewhat.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Here is the latest visible imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

First time I've actually looked at cloud shots today and all I can say is

[MiamiensisWx]

First time I've actually looked at cloud shots today and all I can say is

Agreed... it now has very good cloud convection. If it wasn't for the (fortunate) westerly shear, this wave would probably be developing and intensifying now.

Here is a quote from Steve Weagle in today's "Local" edition in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel...

"THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS ABOUT TO BREAK DOWN, AS OPHELIA MOVES UP THE COAST. WE WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND, THEN A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES IN MONDAY AND THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY. BOTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY TRACK CLOSER."

An interesting thing to note is that the Sun-Sentinel seems to have a bias towards when systems threaten Florida to say that Florida needs to keep an eye on them but then state that they might only bring lots of rain and miss southern Florida, or say again that Florida must watch them but then say that a ridge weakness might steer it more north to threaten the Carolinas. Anyone else notice that?

[jpigott]

visible images suggest some type of circulation, not sure whether at low or mid levels

[LaBreeze]

How far along the Texas coast are you talking about jschlitz? Louisiana would not have to worry at all - even Southwestern Louisiana?