Which Model Has Been Best This Season

#1 Postby **THead** » Thu Sep 15, 2005 10:47 pm

I'd be interested to hear what everyone thinks, the models that have been the best performers so far this season. It seems to me that the UKMET and GFDL have been pretty good, at least on the storms I've been watching closely.

wxmann_91 · #2 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Sep 15, 2005 11:05 pm

It's always the FSU Superensemble, but for the models available for the public, I'd say the GFDL and the ECMWF. The LBAR hasn't been TOO bad either.

EDIT (a day later): Never mind about the LBAR. The LBAR sucks. (based on the latest performance of 96L)

DESTRUCTION5 · #3 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:36 am

NHC..Hands down

Skywatch_NC · #4 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:40 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:NHC..Hands down

I agree

apocalypt-flyer · #5 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:55 am

UKMET? You got to be kidding. NHC and GFDL ...

#6 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 8:26 am

From what we've seen, the GFDL has been the most consistent and accurate although it seems to have had a slight left (west) bias most of the season. Interesting that the NHC been able to accurately adjust back to the right (east) for this bias consitently.

NastyCat4 · #7 Postby **NastyCat4** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:51 am

None of the models have been particularly accurate--from a purely statistical point, they've all been unsatisfactory. The biggest bias on the part of virtually all of them has been overestimating/ estimating the strength of ridges, and whether they will hold. Remember the Katrina "right hook?" Also, remember the "ridge forcing Ophelia to landfall in Florida, with a due West movement?" Clearly ridge bias---the programming needs to be adjusted to deal with this variable in a more satisfactory manner.

MiamiensisWx · #8 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:53 am

Models appear to have been overestimating or underestimating the ridge... more times they have mistakenly forecasted a stronger ridge than a weaker ridge.

#9 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:09 am

Early in the season, the NHC actually pointed out which model was performing best so far this season in a discussion (think it was either with Emily or Dennis) but a lot has happened since then...

NastyCat4 · #10 Postby **NastyCat4** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:21 am

Early in the season, the NHC lauded the NOGAPS for its accuracy, but that was with the Gulf storms. It is harder to predict a storm that is "out there," as opposed to the "cul-de-sac" senario that is the Gulf of Mexico, if a storm is far South, and headed over the Bay of Campeche.

Derek Ortt · #11 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:36 pm

RSMAS MM5 run off of the Canadian

its not even close. Its a little fast, but it was the only model to correctly indicate that Maria, Nate, and Ophelia would all become hurricanes

#12 Postby **THead** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:58 pm

Thanks for all the replies. Doesn't someone monitor all the models and rate them as the season progresses, and after the season, to see which ones actually performed the best statistically? If so, is there a report or anything with the results?

caneflyer · #13 Postby **caneflyer** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:59 pm

THead wrote:Thanks for all the replies. Doesn't someone monitor all the models and rate them as the season progresses, and after the season, to see which ones actually performed the best statistically? If so, is there a report or anything with the results?

After the season NHC prepares an annual verification report:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml?

Which Model Has Been Best This Season

Which Model Has Been Best This Season

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