Ophelia & 95L and the wind

[Skywatch_NC]

I thought S2K didn't allow for flaming...IMO I see several flame posts regarding Jim's topic...take it easy peeps...sheesh.

Eric

[Windy]

I thought S2K didn't allow for flaming...IMO I see several flame posts regarding Jim's topic...take it easy peeps...sheesh.

Eric

Who's flaming? I see several people disagreeing with Jim and several people agreeing with Jim. The closest thing I can find to a flame in this thread is Jim calling me immature.

[weatherSnoop]

comparing his field of study, though not a mainstream interest, comparable to reading tea leaves was inflamatory. (I bet there are those so knowledgeble in that area that it is a science to them). I know very little about the solar impacts on the weather, but willing to learn. Do you ever say "man,the way people are acting, it must be a full moon?" Just wondering

[Deb321]

comparing his field of study, though not a mainstream interest, comparable to reading tea leaves was inflamatory. (I bet there are those so knowledgeble in that area that it is a science to them). I know very little about the solar impacts on the weather, but willing to learn. Do you ever say "man,the way people are acting, it must be a full moon?" Just wondering

Well said. There are alot of things out there that some people may think is strange and choose not to believe and that is their right. I'm sure when the theory of tropical waves passing on this side or that side of the HERBERT BOX was suggested most thought this guy was a nut case and some probably still do. Truth is we can study weather patterns and the history of these hurricanes and we still will never be able to know everything. Mother Nature is the only one who really knows.

[Windy]

comparing his field of study, though not a mainstream interest, comparable to reading tea leaves was inflamatory. (I bet there are those so knowledgeble in that area that it is a science to them). I know very little about the solar impacts on the weather, but willing to learn. Do you ever say "man,the way people are acting, it must be a full moon?" Just wondering

The field of study of space weather is not like reading tea leaves. Space weather (solar activity and magnetosphere study) is actually very real branch of science. Attempting to use space weather to predict synoptic scale weather is like reading tea leaves. Or, to make a better analogy, like attempting to predict volcanic activity by constantly monitoring NOAA soundings. Or diagnose cancer by watching seismograms. If you wish to demonstrate how that's not the case, by all means, point me to the relevant papers in the relevant journals. Jim's ideas are not actually a "field of study" yet, they're just his ideas.

Telling someone they're wrong does not equal a flame. If we're to have serious discussions here, we can't shy away from questioning unscientific forecasting methodologies out of fear of hurting the forecaster's feelings.

[weatherSnoop]

Perhaps it is just another piece of the puzzle. Those at the TPC (bless them and their knowledge) have many tools at hand, but there is always that unexplained action/reaction. Do any of the tropical models factor in any solar activity? If not, maybe one should try...the worst that could come of it is yet another outlier for any given storm.

[Windy]

comparing his field of study, though not a mainstream interest, comparable to reading tea leaves was inflamatory. (I bet there are those so knowledgeble in that area that it is a science to them). I know very little about the solar impacts on the weather, but willing to learn. Do you ever say "man,the way people are acting, it must be a full moon?" Just wondering

Well said. There are alot of things out there that some people may think is strange and choose not to believe and that is their right. I'm sure when the theory of tropical waves passing on this side or that side of the HERBERT BOX was suggested most thought this guy was a nut case and some probably still do. Truth is we can study weather patterns and the history of these hurricanes and we still will never be able to know everything. Mother Nature is the only one who really knows.

Well that's funny, because the folks at the NHC haven't given up on empiricism yet. I mean, if they just threw their arms up in the air and said "nobody knows, lets use any old unscientific method that comes to mind", something tells me their forecast tracks wouldn't verify very often. As it stands, their forecasts verify quite well. The reason for that is nearly a century of meteorological and climatalogical research, experiment, and theory. Since meteorology and climatology are a science, you have the scientific method to thank for our current forecasting capabilities. Jim has, in the past, freely admitted that he's not a scientist and that he's not using the scientific method to arrive at his forecasting methods, and that he's done no statistical analysis to ascertain his own forcast verification. And it always seems to turn into a big brouhaha any time anyone points this out to him. And not just on this forum, either, if you do a little Googling.

[Windy]

Perhaps it is just another piece of the puzzle. Those at the TPC (bless them and their knowledge) have many tools at hand, but there is always that unexplained action/reaction. Do any of the tropical models factor in any solar activity? If not, maybe one should try...the worst that could come of it is yet another outlier for any given storm.

Not only do none of the tropical models factor in solar activity, no meteorlogical model or serious governmental/corporate weather forecast product in the world factors in solar activity. Why? Because there is no demonstrable link between space weather and synoptic scale earth weather.

The only people who factor in solar activity into their earth-based forecasts are the people who publish the Farmer's Almanac. They also use astrology and numerology, if that tells you anything.

[weatherSnoop]

I am one to believe that the earth is A planet in a vast solar system. One containing dynamics we may never understand! To think that all answers are to be found within our atmosphere (not allowing for other influences) might limit "our" ability to really understand many things about the planet.

Could these ideas mean nothing/very little? Yes! Should anyone discount the impact because one individual has not published proof? I think not. Every minute of every day people react and believe without a data being presented. I do it at work constantly. Do I question things? Yes, all the time. Does it mean that the reaction or belief was wrong because the proof was slow in coming? Not in my mind.

[Windy]

I am one to believe that the earth is A planet in a vast solar system. One containing dynamics we may never understand! To think that all answers are to be found within our atmosphere (not allowing for other influences) might limit "our" ability to really understand many things about the planet.

Could these ideas mean nothing/very little? Yes! Should anyone discount the impact because one individual has not published proof? I think not. Every minute of every day people react and believe without a data being presented. I do it at work constantly. Do I question things? Yes, all the time. Does it mean that the reaction or belief was wrong because the proof was slow in coming? Not in my mind.

Ah, but that's the rub of science. You assume something is not true until it is shown (or at least strongly hinted) to be true. Otherwise science does not work.

Say that I predict that a tornado is going to destroy your town in twelve years. I tell you that I know this because of a special forecasting method I've devised that involves rolling dice and throwing darts at a map. Are you going to treat my forecast seriously and consider selling your house and moving? Or are you going to first ask me to prove that my dice/dart method is statistically better than random chance? That's what I'm talking about. Even if one doesn't understand the mechanics behind the relationship between two phenomena that one claims to see (i.e., one can't show causation), that person should at least be able to point to a statistical analysis that shows the correlation between the two phenomena -- especially before you incorporate that correlation into a forecast matrix. So far, despite lots and lots of requests, Jim hasn't provided anything like that for his link between space weather and synoptic scale tropical forecasting. He says that he himself hasn't done such a statistical study, which leads a rational person to wonder why he thinks the correlation exists in first place.

[Jim Hughes]

comparing his field of study, though not a mainstream interest, comparable to reading tea leaves was inflamatory. (I bet there are those so knowledgeble in that area that it is a science to them). I know very little about the solar impacts on the weather, but willing to learn. Do you ever say "man,the way people are acting, it must be a full moon?" Just wondering

The key word you mention is willing to learn. Look I guess we have to waste some time...not by your intentions and go down this road again because some people seem to be mad that anyone even glances at my theories or even bothers to read my forecasts...even for fun.

I do not have a degree and I am a layman and I will not..at least until I go back to school...which is dubtful at my age and plus family reason....

Okay that parts limits my ability to do the proper statistical research study...I wrote a long research paper with some statistics...but not the proper of course... back in 1995 ...based on the planets effect upon the sunspot cycle and I sent it out to a couple of publications.

It came back UNOPENED. When I called about this I was told off the record. IF you do not work for a university...research institute...stamp of approval... etc...they are not going to waste their time in reading it.

So from a research point...putting together the data...I gained immensely but that did not help me much when it came to how I perceived things work. Allot of time was wasted putting all that material together. I could have learned from the research alone so I did not need to do the rest.

So I decided to go the other route through local news outlets ...OCM's etc.. It has paid off and I have respect from most in long term forecasting. Do I have it in this field...space weather/ tropical activity ? I know they listen and follow....and I do get feedback every once in a while.

It's a start in the right direction. I am confident that someone else will take this to another level. If he or she can show what I have been talking about for years than that is fine. Would it be better if I just quit talking about this because I have my limits? How would people understand where to look to do a statisitical study?

I knew what I was getting into when I started posting at storm2k. So if people want to drop by my threads to blow off some steam , they can. It is a free world....although everyone knows that the hosts' of this forum makes the rules.

BTW this forum hosts have been very courteous to me and that is what is important to me. Plenty of members have also been kind with their encouraging comments.



Jim

[Mattie]

Well, for those of us not in the know, but are learning from all angles and viewpoints, I don't think that it hurts as a layman or a novice, or an interested party, to hear what everyone has to say.

Everyone is able to express their opinions and I like reading, comparing and watching your predictions as well as those from a scientific meterological point of view, to see which ones are accurate. It has been obvious that some of the more scientifically skilled individuals don't always have the best and final answer, so if you don't like reading such information and you don't have room in your knowledge base to consider it, then don't read it.

Katrina was a great example, at first they kept saying Florida east coast, Florida panhandle. The mets kept watching the system, based on the movements, and changed their predictions accordingly based on how things changed moment to moment.

No one has a crystal ball or if we did, we would already have notices on the two areas we are watching at the present and be sending out evacuation notices to where ever the crystal ball said the system was going to go.

Anyway - FWIW, you deserve to speak and people should be able to debate your theories just as we debate the predictions of the professional mets on occasion. But courteousness should be considered first.

Just because you can't see, taste, hear, feel or smell it, doesn't mean it doesn't happen.

[gtalum]

Jim,

What do you think is the mechanism that connects solar winds to storm formation? Or is that not yet known or even theorized?

[SouthFloridawx]

well as a layman myself I would think that it has something to do electrical charge in the atmosphere and how it converts that energy here on earth. I think that that energy in space is spread out and as it reaches the earth it doesn't just die off. It somehow reacts in our atmosphere. That's my 2 cents

[NastyCat4]

I don't think anyone's flaming--it is just that there are so many variables in meteorology, introducing another set of unrelated (or possibly unrelated) issues complicates the task at hand. It is obvious that the Sun has impact upon the Earth--that's obvious. However, to interpolate that to direct prediction of weather patterns, or for that matter, something as unpredictable as hurricanes is viewed as pseudo-science by many.

[Jim Hughes]

Jim,

What do you think is the mechanism that connects solar winds to storm formation? Or is that not yet known or even theorized?

It is most likely electrial/charge like southfloridawx2005 mentioned but it's more complicated then that. The solar wind has an effect upon the GCR levels. These are some of the strongest energetic particles out there....left over from the big bang.

Tinsley and others have theorized something called electroscavenging. Baranyi talks about magnetic field vectors and how only certain areas of the earth get effected by space weather ...corpuscular radiation...I have been saying the same things for years about our local weather being effected.

Everyone always said the whole earth had to be effected at once...or other parts of the US.. I disagreed and Baranyi supports my theory about this.

I have given the url's to several research papers dealing with solar wind...particles... magnetic field vector...the latter is very important and everyone seems to have forgotten this part.

There are several URL's listed in my July posts in the Global Weather Forum...Most are in the big discussion/views.

If you have trouble finding them let me know I will get them up for you.



Jim

[gtalum]

Thanks Jim. I should be able to find them on my own.

I find this whole idea intriguing.