Potential for 95L...Significant system or dud?

[Jim Hughes]

Thats where Ivan formed last year

I just wanted to give everyone a heads up and tell you that you are looking at the same areas that you did about 27 days ago...I had made a forecast for development right before I left for vacation last month .....I said a TD would form before 21/21z...

Most people thought that the remanats of old TD 10 was the one that would come through for me. It did not. A system came across Yucatan and it formed in the Bay of Campeche near the Mexican coastline...Jose. ... On 8/22/15z.

Repeatable weather/patterns ....steering currents.... can and do happen and I think they they are related to IMF...coronal hole this time.....So the model's are calling for a Katrina like formation/path also....hmmm......8/25 + 27 = 9/21....although I think a 28 day pattern would be much more reliable here. ...Mind you I am not forecasting here just adding my thoughts...I already made my forecast last month for the upcoming days.


Jim

[jasons2k]

I don't mean to offend anyone....

But when I read "28 day pattern" all I could think of was one thing.

[Ola]

This Jim Hughes really sounds like Methane Mike.

[Jim Hughes]

This Jim Hughes really sounds like Methane Mike.

No Methan Mike and I are two different people. Remember I did not say that anything would form there I was just pointing it out. Am I wrong about what you were looking at 27 days ago?

Where was the main activity in early August...first week or so ...fish storms except for Gert..short storm...

What happened this month in early September? Atlantic / Fish storms...

What do you think the NE blizzard did? It repeated the 12/26 Norfolk VA. coastal storm. Coronal hole related and enhanced by the major space weather right before it.

Blizzard of 96' same thing. More interior first time around.

Sorry folks you need to know what to look for. I have been doing this type of long term forecasting for over ten years now and that is what has gotten me known down in the Washington DC area .

Forecasting a storm 48-72 hours out is no big deal and it sure as hell is not going to get you in the newspapers. Think what you want. I am just trying to help.


Jim

[skysummit]

Has anyone noticed the HUGE blob right behind 95L? That is one nice blow up of T-Storms!

[mahicks]

Has anyone noticed the HUGE blob right behind 95L? That is one nice blow up of T-Storms!

HOLY SNIKES BATMAN!!!

Thats one big mutha!

[skysummit]

Here also....look at that moisture in the lower right hand corner.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[THead]

Here also....look at that moisture in the lower right hand corner.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Never seen that look before. Cool.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is interesting to note that conditions around Florida and the Bahamas are expected to become pretty unfavorable over the next several days and persist for quite a while. If INVEST.95L moves toward Florida, it might easily weaken or be sheared, preventing further organization and, possibly, a strong storm or hurricane hiting Florida, fortunately. Things like this as well as ridge weaknesses are the stuff that has, on occasion but not always, kept southeast Florida "safe" temporarily. Fortunately, it looks like a saving grace may do that again - keep us safe. However, things can change, so guards should not be loosened and this system and the Puerto Rico system as well as the system behind INVEST.95L must be watched. Hopefully, though, we will be saved a strong strike.

Right now, there is increaaing 20KT - even some 30KT - shear in Florida and the Bahamas. Also, if conditions do become more favorable, INVEST.95L may be steered north by a ridge weakness. This will decrease a Florida threat, but increase a Carolina threat. Right now, it looks like the Carolinas might be most impacted, and that Florida will be saved by either shear or the weakness, but things can change.

[TheBurn]

Re: Area behind 95L

I know it's at very low latitudes but it does look rather interesting...

[f5]

It is interesting to note that conditions around Florida and the Bahamas are expected to become pretty unfavorable over the next several days and persist for quite a while. If INVEST.95L moves toward Florida, it might easily weaken or be sheared, preventing further organization and, possibly, a strong storm or hurricane hiting Florida, fortunately. Things like this as well as ridge weaknesses are the stuff that has, on occasion but not always, kept southeast Florida "safe" temporarily. Fortunately, it looks like a saving grace may do that again - keep us safe. However, things can change, so guards should not be loosened and this system and the Puerto Rico system as well as the system behind INVEST.95L must be watched. Hopefully, though, we will be saved a strong strike.

Right now, there is increaaing 20KT - even some 30KT - shear in Florida and the Bahamas. Also, if conditions do become more favorable, INVEST.95L may be steered north by a ridge weakness. This will decrease a Florida threat, but increase a Carolina threat. Right now, it looks like the Carolinas might be most impacted, and that Florida will be saved by either shear or the weakness, but things can change.

looks like the long smooth ride for the carolinas is over it looks like its going to get VERY bumpy.So far Texas has been out of the woods also our season is about to end since the fronts are already starting to kick in.

[jlauderdal]

It is interesting to note that conditions around Florida and the Bahamas are expected to become pretty unfavorable over the next several days and persist for quite a while. If INVEST.95L moves toward Florida, it might easily weaken or be sheared, preventing further organization and, possibly, a strong storm or hurricane hiting Florida, fortunately. Things like this as well as ridge weaknesses are the stuff that has, on occasion but not always, kept southeast Florida "safe" temporarily. Fortunately, it looks like a saving grace may do that again - keep us safe. However, things can change, so guards should not be loosened and this system and the Puerto Rico system as well as the system behind INVEST.95L must be watched. Hopefully, though, we will be saved a strong strike.

Right now, there is increaaing 20KT - even some 30KT - shear in Florida and the Bahamas. Also, if conditions do become more favorable, INVEST.95L may be steered north by a ridge weakness. This will decrease a Florida threat, but increase a Carolina threat. Right now, it looks like the Carolinas might be most impacted, and that Florida will be saved by either shear or the weakness, but things can change.

so you say its becoming unfavorable and nhc says :

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME...BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Well,most models will see the this system a little bit west ofthe Antilles, For this time conditions are favourable. However in the Central Carribean sea we've got quite a bit of shear right now ..

[hiflyer]

Whatever you do dont run the cmc for 16 0z off the FSU site..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

It's a lone wolf compared to the other models fyi.

[Duffy]

i am confused.....that thing off the Carolina Coast that the Models are showing is that Ophelia or the next storm?

[O Town]

It's Ophelia, you need to scroll to the right and hit foward and it will put the map in motion. Then you will see the next system 95L come in from the windward islands.

[Duffy]

okay thanks
i seen another System up there in the Northeastern part of the Screen, didn't know if it was Ophelia or not, thanks again

[Marilyn]

It's Ophelia, you need to scroll to the right and hit foward and it will put the map in motion. Then you will see the next system 95L come in from the windward islands.

O Town which Model do we forward ??

[charliesc]

This brings back memories (not very good ones, I might add). Looks a lot like Hugo in '89 which hit Puerto Rico first.

[O Town]

It's Ophelia, you need to scroll to the right and hit foward and it will put the map in motion. Then you will see the next system 95L come in from the windward islands.

O Town which Model do we forward ??

I followed hiflyers link above, and ran the cmc in animation.