Ophelia... Boston... What do you think?
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Ophelia... Boston... What do you think?
As time goes on, there appears more chance that Boston (Massachusetts) will see more than rain from Ophelia. What are your predictions?
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thunderchief
- Category 1
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thunderchief
- Category 1
- Posts: 306
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:03 pm
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linkerweather
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 261
- Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:59 am
- Location: tampa bay area
Duffy wrote:Drat! i wanted experience the "Big Storm" oh well
there will be others in the future...this year, next, whatever,,,,,our time will come in Maineand when it does...i will be here.....watching and waiting...to witness the fury of Mother Nature
Your welcome to take any storm that comes this way.
Feel free....
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Duffy - hush your mouth...
...and wash your typing fingers with soap! If you want the big one, please go live on a deserted (i.e., only you) island, where no one else will be hurt, and then invite a little tropical "company" to visit!
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wxwatcher91
- Category 5
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- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
- Location: Keene, NH
- Contact:
well everyone is off here IMO
no rain??? sorry but no matter how far away Ophelia is SNE is bound to get loads of rain. a front is currently stalled out across New England and this system will drag in lots of moisture from Ophelia... the NWS is looking at 3-5 inches as a possibility.
here's the latest hurricane local statement for southern New England:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/fcsts/BOSHLSBOX.html
current weather map
also, probability of a strike on Boston MA?
NHC thinks differently than some of you:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2026.shtml
anyway... it may sweep out to sea fast or strike LI and head inland... we wont have a good idea of what will happen at least for the next 12 to 24 hours
no rain??? sorry but no matter how far away Ophelia is SNE is bound to get loads of rain. a front is currently stalled out across New England and this system will drag in lots of moisture from Ophelia... the NWS is looking at 3-5 inches as a possibility.
here's the latest hurricane local statement for southern New England:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/fcsts/BOSHLSBOX.html
current weather map
also, probability of a strike on Boston MA?
NHC thinks differently than some of you:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2026.shtml
anyway... it may sweep out to sea fast or strike LI and head inland... we wont have a good idea of what will happen at least for the next 12 to 24 hours
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WTUS81 KBOX 160937 CCA
HLSBOX
MAZ019-020>024-RIZ005-007-ANZ231>236-254-255-161600-
HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT .. COR DATE..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
533 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005
...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BE OUTLOOKED SUCH THAT IT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND BRISTOL.
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
AT 5 AM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND INCLUDES THE ENTIRE COASTAL REGION FROM POINT JUDITH
RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
OPHELIA IS STILL EXPECTED PASS AROUND 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH
MAY SPREAD INTO THE WATCH AREA TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY.
IF OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS AND PATH CONTINUE ON COURSE AS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED...A PORTION OF THIS WATCH...WOULD LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING DURING TODAYS MIDDAY ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS TO
WEAKEN NORTHWEST OF ITS PATH. SINCE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE LIKELY SIZE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELDS ON THE NEW
ENGLAND SIDE OF THIS STORM...THE WATCH CONTINUES.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS NOW MOVING NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. SHE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED.
..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR
NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A
POWERFUL NOREASTER.
BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY
NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF
THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES.
COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT
LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING.
EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING FRIDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER.
...WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS REACH
DEPENDS UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF OPHELIA. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS
BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
BUZZARDS BAY AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST RHODE ISLAND THERE IS SOMEWHAT
LESSER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF
THE TROPICAL STORM. EARLY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A 1 TO 3 FOOT STORM
SURGE MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE
STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE.
...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION
THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR
BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 11 AM EDT TODAY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND
INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
/BOSSPSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT.
$$
DRAG
HLSBOX
MAZ019-020>024-RIZ005-007-ANZ231>236-254-255-161600-
HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT .. COR DATE..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
533 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005
...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BE OUTLOOKED SUCH THAT IT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND BRISTOL.
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
AT 5 AM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND INCLUDES THE ENTIRE COASTAL REGION FROM POINT JUDITH
RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
OPHELIA IS STILL EXPECTED PASS AROUND 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH
MAY SPREAD INTO THE WATCH AREA TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY.
IF OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS AND PATH CONTINUE ON COURSE AS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED...A PORTION OF THIS WATCH...WOULD LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING DURING TODAYS MIDDAY ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS TO
WEAKEN NORTHWEST OF ITS PATH. SINCE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE LIKELY SIZE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELDS ON THE NEW
ENGLAND SIDE OF THIS STORM...THE WATCH CONTINUES.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS NOW MOVING NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. SHE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED.
..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR
NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A
POWERFUL NOREASTER.
BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY
NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF
THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES.
COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT
LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING.
EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING FRIDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER.
...WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS REACH
DEPENDS UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF OPHELIA. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS
BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
BUZZARDS BAY AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST RHODE ISLAND THERE IS SOMEWHAT
LESSER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF
THE TROPICAL STORM. EARLY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A 1 TO 3 FOOT STORM
SURGE MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE
STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE.
...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION
THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR
BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 11 AM EDT TODAY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND
INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
/BOSSPSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT.
$$
DRAG
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I know the ETA is not a favorite model for tropical disturbances, but inside of 48 hours it's pretty good. 12z run is much further west and this is confirmed by sat pics. this may be real soaker NJ and north.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030m.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030m.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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