Area NE of PR....Area to Watch!

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jlauderdal
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#61 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:04 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
jschlitz wrote:First time I've actually looked at cloud shots today and all I can say is :eek: :eek: :eek:


Agreed... it now has very good cloud convection. If it wasn't for the (fortunate) westerly shear, this wave would probably be developing and intensifying now.

Here is a quote from Steve Weagle in today's "Local" edition in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel...

"THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS ABOUT TO BREAK DOWN, AS OPHELIA MOVES UP THE COAST. WE WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND, THEN A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES IN MONDAY AND THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY. BOTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY TRACK CLOSER."

An interesting thing to note is that the Sun-Sentinel seems to have a bias towards when systems threaten Florida to say that Florida needs to keep an eye on them but then state that they might only bring lots of rain and miss southern Florida, or say again that Florida must watch them but then say that a ridge weakness might steer it more north to threaten the Carolinas. Anyone else notice that?


I wouldn't recommend looking at the the newspaper for the latest weather info.
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#62 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:10 am

jlauderdale wrote:I wouldn't recommend looking at the the newspaper for the latest weather info.


Agreed... they often don't have the best information. Still, you can't "shield" yourself from other peoples' opinions... besides, it can still be interesting to see what others have to say, even if you may disagree.
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#63 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:16 am

882
ABNT20 KNHC 161514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING
JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#64 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:23 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
jlauderdale wrote:I wouldn't recommend looking at the the newspaper for the latest weather info.


Agreed... they often don't have the best information. Still, you can't "shield" yourself from other peoples' opinions... besides, it can still be interesting to see what others have to say, even if you may disagree.

the info is not timely in the paper, thats the problem. editorial page is good for opinions.
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#65 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:31 am

I think this will develop before the tropical wave. This could become Phillipe and the wave Rita.
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#66 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:32 am

HURAKAN wrote:I think this will develop before the tropical wave. This could become Phillipe and the wave Rita.


It's a real good possibilitie.
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#67 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:33 am

HURAKAN wrote:I think this will develop before the tropical wave. This could become Phillipe and the wave Rita.


Maybe... however, it still waits to be seen what will happen with this system (the Pueto Rico system) after one to two days. The discussion only mentions what will happen over one to two days, but not quite beyond.
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#68 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:41 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I think this will develop before the tropical wave. This could become Phillipe and the wave Rita.


Maybe... however, it still waits to be seen what will happen with this system (the Pueto Rico system) after one to two days. The discussion only mentions what will happen over one to two days, but not quite beyond.


The tropical wave is not even close to tropical depression stage. If you see closely in the visible images, there seems to be a low but it's elongated NE - SW and the convection is irregular to say the least. Yesterday I was expecting for the night to pass and see if it got better as it sometimes occurs, but it didn't. I don't think it will become a TD before entering the Caribbean, and since Emily, the Caribbean hasn't been hospitable to tropical cyclones. On the other hand, the system north of the Leeward Islands seems to be concentrating and a low pressure could form over the next 24 hours. I won't be surprised to see in tomorrow's 11 AM advisory something saying, "TD formation is expected later today or tomorrow...."
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#69 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:48 am

HURAKAN wrote:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I think this will develop before the tropical wave. This could become Phillipe and the wave Rita.


Maybe... however, it still waits to be seen what will happen with this system (the Pueto Rico system) after one to two days. The discussion only mentions what will happen over one to two days, but not quite beyond.


The tropical wave is not even close to tropical depression stage. If you see closely in the visible images, there seems to be a low but it's elongated NE - SW and the convection is irregular to say the least. Yesterday I was expecting for the night to pass and see if it got better as it sometimes occurs, but it didn't. I don't think it will become a TD before entering the Caribbean, and since Emily, the Caribbean hasn't been hospitable to tropical cyclones. On the other hand, the system north of the Leeward Islands seems to be concentrating and a low pressure could form over the next 24 hours. I won't be surprised to see in tomorrow's 11 AM advisory something saying, "TD formation is expected later today or tomorrow...."



Why can't the carib. be hospitable to trpical cyclones?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

looks pretty warm out there?
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#70 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:48 am

I wasn't trying to insult you btw
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#71 Postby gtalum » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:50 am

Derek noted in another thread that the Caribbean is full of shear.
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#72 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:51 am

I'm just tried to make a point by pointing out that since Emily left the Caribbean Sea, there hasn't been any other cyclones passing over its waters, and no tropical wave has been able to develop there. Now, IT'S REALLY HOT IN THERE!!!
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#73 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:51 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


the carribean is not that bad...
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#74 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:52 am

gtalum wrote:Derek noted in another thread that the Caribbean is full of shear.


EXACTLY, AND THANKS YOU! Water temperature is just one factor for tropical cyclone formation.
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#75 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:57 am

looks better than it did yesterday....


Image
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#76 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:00 am

Image

Image
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#77 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:01 am

the shear is starting relaxing over the area we are watching near PR.
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#78 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:16 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:the shear is starting relaxing over the area we are watching near PR.


Agree... however, shear is still increasing in Florida and the Bahamas ahead of it. Still, the area of increasing shear ahead of it has contracted.
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#79 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:19 am

i guess we could just say this area bears watching huh?
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#80 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:23 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:i guess we could just say this area bears watching huh?


Yep, very correctly said.
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