Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[caribepr]

I am sure that all the islands are watching this one closely.
I know St. Maarten is super alert after that flash flood we had from a passing system.
The following was in the newspaper this morning from our offical Government Information Service.
It's good they are telling people to watch and be aware.


News Release

Written by Roddy Heyliger, Communications Consultant for the Government Information Service (GIS), Interim Dept. Head Marsha Beauperthuy, Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, St. Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;

I think every island needs a Roddy! I like that guy.

Yep...we're all definintely watching it.

[Dean4Storms]

Does look like a NE Carib. storm to me as well. The western portion of the wave does show signs of a LL turning back toward the convection. If this trend continues a closed low should form. Also, it does appear to have slowed a bit which should allow for more favorable UL conditions to set up vertically. I think we could see a Depression form by Sat. morning. I also think that once a TC forms it begins a more WNW to NW turn around the ridge threatening the NE Carib.

[cycloneye]

882
ABNT20 KNHC 161514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[donsutherland1]

Luis,

Right now, it's still speculative as to what course 95L will eventually take. But early on, residents of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (both the Dominican Republic and Haiti) should watch for at least the threat of a tropical cyclone. Cuba/the Bahamas might also have to deal with this system at some point. Beyond that, it's too soon for me to speculate on possible threats to the mainland U.S. Some such systems have recurved after passing over or near Puerto Rico e.g., Hurricane Marilyn (1995):



Once there's a TD, then I'll take a closer look at the U.S. mainland matter.

[HurricaneQueen]

I am sure that all the islands are watching this one closely.
I know St. Maarten is super alert after that flash flood we had from a passing system.
The following was in the newspaper this morning from our offical Government Information Service.
It's good they are telling people to watch and be aware.


News Release

Written by Roddy Heyliger, Communications Consultant for the Government Information Service (GIS), Interim Dept. Head Marsha Beauperthuy, Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, St. Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;

I think every island needs a Roddy! I like that guy.

Yep...we're all definintely watching it.

Will be thinking about both of you and hoping the storm stays away from the NE Carib.

L

[cycloneye]

don today Marylin which that graphic represents passed just NE of Puerto Rico as a cat 2 105 mph.

[caribepr]

don today Marylin which that graphic represents passed just NE of Puerto Rico as a cat 2 105 mph.

That's cheery news Luis! Just tell me when I should drag out the chains so the cart is safe

Just closed up and came home rather than sit in the drippy-type rain we're having. I'd rather play in the gardens anyway.

[ronjon]

The dynamic models are reaching consensus on a W-NW track toward the windward islands toward the south coast of Hispanola. The globals are insisting on more of a N-NW movement before the islands. Due to its low latitude and weak state, I'm trending toward the dynamic models for its direction - I don't normally do so - but in this case they look on the right track along with climatology.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_95.gif

[BensonTCwatcher]

AS of this morning, 95L was begining to "band up" more distinctly. Thsi view shows the lower levels pretty well

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks like the dynamic models have a good initialization on 11.3N/52.2W which lines up with the visibles and otehr wavelenghts of sat images.

The gobals don't seem to have the fix right??

[cycloneye]

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... OUS42.KNHC

Interesting that the squadron will have plenty of flying to this system.

[SouthFloridawx]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 16 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-111

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
FLIGHT ONE
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 3316A OPHELIA
C. 17/1300Z
D. 41.5N 68.5W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. DEVELOPING SYSTEM (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA CYCLONE
C. 17/1500Z
D. 12.5N 58.5W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 18/0600Z
B. AFXXX 22XXA CYCLONE
C. 18/0300Z
D. 13.5N 60.51W
E. 17/0500Z TO 17/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON THE
SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN.

[cycloneye]

I am noticing an increase of the convection around 11-12n and 52w.Maybe a new low may be forming in that area.Let's watch how it evolves.

[Swimdude]

No doubt in my mind this will be our next TD.

[Brent]

Yep... I agree.

[skysummit]

I guess it's a race now to see who will become Phillippe first. Looking at this image, you know we're going to have at least one on our hands soon...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/atlantic/tropics/ir/20050916.1715.goes12.ir.x.atl_tropics.x.jpg

[cycloneye]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

Interesting to watch this bouy located east of the islands to see how the pressures do and how are the wind speeds.Right now pressures are falling slowly.

[superfly]

From the visible loop, there definitely seems to be a low trying to close off under the deep convection.

[Derek Ortt]

does not currently seem to be any organization this afternoon and conditions ahead do not look to be favorable as there is strong shear over the Islands

once the NW system gets going, that may only serve to increase the shear over 95L

[Anonymous]

does not currently seem to be any organization this afternoon and conditions ahead do not look to be favorable as there is strong shear over the Islands

once the NW system gets going, that may only serve to increase the shear over 95L

I beg to differ. Just as I clicked to make this post, I saw yours...my post was going to reference how it appears to be getting better organized....with almost two little spins, one moving more west...the other more west-northwest. With the floater on it, the lessoning westerly shear no longer noticed on satellite...and the hot sst's...I believe 95L could become a TD very soon.

Plus, things are trending favorable ahead::::