Missing Don's pattern analysis...when will NE cool down?

[Planetsnow]

Anyone know when summer will finally end in the NE? Don, what are your thoughts about the upcoming winter in the NE, even though it's early? Many I hear are saying a cold and snowy winter out west. Where does that leave the NE?

[donsutherland1]

Planetsnow,

I'll resume the weekly pattern analysis closer to winter. I'm currently in the early stages of developing my Winter 2005-06 outlook and will post that around mid-October.

With regard to the current pattern, I believe it could be another 12-18 days before one sees a shift whereby a strong trough could be moving into the East. Already, the ensemble forecast for the NAO is suggesting that the NAO could go negative sometime late in end of the month. Should that blocking evolve, that could be the first hint of a possible shift to a cooler pattern.

For now, look for at least the next 7-10 days to see temperatures average near or above normal in the East. Then we'll see whether a pattern change grows more likely.