So what happens if Ophelia intensifies?

[Jim Hughes]

I would like to hear from the experts/amateurs as to why or how Ophelia could strengthen...if she does... since the wind shear was suppose to be sort of high/unfavorable...and plenty of dry air still around.

The SST's are also to cool to support reintensification. What atmospheric dynamics are present that can make her intensify. And if so why has this not been in the forecast?


Jim

[scostorms]

Then the CHC issues its first ever hurricane watch for Canada .

[f5]

the conditions in new england for Ophelia will be the same conditions they experience every winter with nor'easters

[Jim Hughes]

Then the CHC issues its first ever hurricane watch for Canada .

I would be paying very close attention to this storm if I was in Cape Cod or Nova Scotia. I would have no problem forecasting upcoming intensifcation right now if I knew that the solar wind speed was going to be continually diminishing.

If it does get down close to 500 km/sec....look out.


Jim

[nequad]

Well...SSTS are not too low for strengthening. In fact part of the circulation is probably still over the gulf stream. The center may be over sub 80F water...but this is an established cyclone- so marginally warm water and less shear can result is some modest strengthening.

The waters south of New England are the warmest of the year right now.

[nequad]

Buoy 44004 is reporting 79 degree water temp. This buoy is pretty much in the path of Ophelia. 79 degree water temp is sufficient to maintain a tropical cyclone and any modest strengthening would not be unheard of.

[jasons2k]

Buoy 44004 is reporting 79 degree water temp. This buoy is pretty much in the path of Ophelia. 79 degree water temp is sufficient to maintain a tropical cyclone and any modest strengthening would not be unheard of.

Exactly, and combined with the fact the she has now accelerated away from the cooled/upwelled water she's been sitting over for the last 3+ days, there is an established meteorological reason for modest strengthening.

[Jim Hughes]

Buoy 44004 is reporting 79 degree water temp. This buoy is pretty much in the path of Ophelia. 79 degree water temp is sufficient to maintain a tropical cyclone and any modest strengthening would not be unheard of.

Pretty much in the path is not sufficient... sorry. No offense but I would prefer hard numbers in regards to her track...I know this may only be able to be done post track..it's fruitless if she does not strengthen...just trying to get the all the ducks in order.

This is why I wanted an open discussion... so no haggling can occur later. What is modest strengthening and if this is a possibility than why does the 11am discussion say liitle change is expected in strength. And they also mention her being in colder waters within 24 hours.

Thanks for all your imput.


Jim

[slowjoe]

What is your forecast?

No vagueness. The NHC does not get away with vagueness.

[Jim Hughes]

Buoy 44004 is reporting 79 degree water temp. This buoy is pretty much in the path of Ophelia. 79 degree water temp is sufficient to maintain a tropical cyclone and any modest strengthening would not be unheard of.

Exactly, and combined with the fact the she has now accelerated away from the cooled/upwelled water she's been sitting over for the last 3+ days, there is an established meteorological reason for modest strengthening.

Okay so we have her bumped up 5mph now at the 5pm discussion and her pressure has dropped to 993. So what's a modest gain FROM her 11am discussion.

Would you have expected her to reach hurricane strength again ? Hmm... that would be 15 mph. If so I would have loved to have heard this several hours ago. I think you would have been going out on a limb compared to the consensus in this forum.


Jim

[jasons2k]

What is your forecast?

No vagueness. The NHC does not get away with vagueness.

Exactly, and speaking of "hard numbers" that's what the NHC issues. I don't see them in your forecasts, Mr. Hughes. And just b/c something may or not verify does not mean established meteo. criteria is out the window.

Another forecaster, JB with AccuWx (love him or hate him) called for the storm to intensify as it moved away from the upwelled water and got another taste of the Gulf Stream. I don't think he consulted Sidney Omar when he made his forecast this morning.

[jkt21787]

I guess some people didn't read that warning on the other thread...

[nequad]

Well Jim...the buoy is a very small point in the ocean and the cyclone is very large. I don't know if the center will pass directly over this buoy...but I believe the buoy to be very close to the official track.

Furthermore...the buoy is just a representation of the water temps in that area. It is clear that water temps are hovering around 80 degrees along the forecast path for the next 6 hours or so.

Once north of this buoy water temps cool to the lower 70's and upper 60's and any strengthening would likey be extra-tropical in nature.

[Jim Hughes]

What is your forecast?

No vagueness. The NHC does not get away with vagueness.

Are you referring to me? I do not make vague forecasts. Look back over my forecasts. I give EXACT cut off times.mph etc...

I am starting up a discussion to hear thoughts about... what if...Everyone knows my way of forecasting. I believe I am speakiing english and quite clearly.

I do not know at this very time if the solar wind is going to diminsih to the 500 km/sec level. If it does Ophelia will become better organized. She evidently already has and it only dropped to around 570 km/sec for a brief period a few hours ago....after being much higher yesterday ( about 40%)

She was at her peak, intensity wise, when the solar wind was at it's weakest stage during the past seven or so days. I am not changing the rules. I have stated a reference point to be monitored/observed. You can either follow it or not...or believe or disbelieve that is your choice.


Jim

[Derek Ortt]

CHC has issued Hurricane Warnings before for Canada. They did during Michael, though it was very short fused due to its very last minute intensification. The did not during Juan because I believe they did not believe hurricane winds would affect the coast... OOPS (at the time, it seemed realistic since landfall was expected to be at 65KT, which would result in the hurricane winds remaining offshore)

[nequad]

Okay so we have her bumped up 5mph now at the 5pm discussion and her pressure has dropped to 993. So what's a modest gain FROM her 11am discussion.

That would be my idea of a modest gain. Slight drop in pressure and a 5mph bump in winds. I doubt she makes it to hurricane strength again. She proabbly only has another 6 hours at most to strengthen as a tropical cyclone.

And as far as the warning from the other thread-I consider this to be a civil discussion...I hope Jim does as well.

[Jim Hughes]

What is your forecast?

No vagueness. The NHC does not get away with vagueness.

Exactly, and speaking of "hard numbers" that's what the NHC issues. I don't see them in your forecasts, Mr. Hughes. And just b/c something may or not verify does not mean established meteo. criteria is out the window.

Another forecaster, JB with AccuWx (love him or hate him) called for the storm to intensify as it moved away from the upwelled water and got another taste of the Gulf Stream. I don't think he consulted Sidney Omar when he made his forecast this morning.

In my last forecast I said a 10 mph strengthening before landfall or 14th/5pm

That is not a hard number? In earlier threads I gave out time periods like 9z-15z...strengthing ...6 hour time frames well in advance are not a hard numbers?

I have no idea who Sidney Omar is but I am sure there is some sarcasm there. I am not into pyshics. If that is indeed what she is.

Jim

[Jim Hughes]

CHC has issued Hurricane Warnings before for Canada. They did during Michael, though it was very short fused due to its very last minute intensification. The did not during Juan because I believe they did not believe hurricane winds would affect the coast... OOPS (at the time, it seemed realistic since landfall was expected to be at 65KT, which would result in the hurricane winds remaining offshore)

Thank you for the update Derek.

[Jim Hughes]

Okay so we have her bumped up 5mph now at the 5pm discussion and her pressure has dropped to 993. So what's a modest gain FROM her 11am discussion.

That would be my idea of a modest gain. Slight drop in pressure and a 5mph bump in winds. I doubt she makes it to hurricane strength again. She proabbly only has another 6 hours at most to strengthen as a tropical cyclone.

And as far as the warning from the other thread-I consider this to be a civil discussion...I hope Jim does as well.

So far it's seems okay but I am not the boss. I can understand them worrying though. Certain exchanges are not good for the forum. People need to keep it level..like you have. I have no problem with that.

I will be going out to dinner soon so I will be offline for a little while but I game to exchange some more jabs later.

One good night of discussions never hurt anyone. I can get back to researching more tomorrow.


Jim

[Persepone]

Then the CHC issues its first ever hurricane watch for Canada .

I would be paying very close attention to this storm if I was in Cape Cod or Nova Scotia. I would have no problem forecasting upcoming intensifcation right now if I knew that the solar wind speed was going to be continually diminishing.

If it does get down close to 500 km/sec....look out.


Jim

We are paying attention here on the Cape. Will let you know tomorrow night, I guess...