Area NE of PR....Area to Watch!

[Dean4Storms]

The area north of PR is starting to cause me alot of concern, not only for Florida but eventually the northern Gulf as well. I know some of the models take it westward but I note some disagreement in the advancement of a long wave trough in the middle of the CONUS come toward the end of next week. If this trough is further east this storms track in the Gulf could be very eerily familiar to Katrina's eventual path with a slow northward turn.

[CHRISTY]

check out the cmc model!

[jasons2k]

Check out the Day 3 QPF from the HPC:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

[jasons2k]

The area north of PR is starting to cause me alot of concern, not only for Florida but eventually the northern Gulf as well. I know some of the models take it westward but I note some disagreement in the advancement of a long wave trough in the middle of the CONUS come toward the end of next week. If this trough is further east this storms track in the Gulf could be very eerily familiar to Katrina's eventual path with a slow northward turn.

Doubt it will have any impact east of 90W.

[SouthFloridawx]

it's starting to look good. Does anyone have a qs pass on this?

[fci]

What is the criteria for an Invest to be up on this area NE of Puerto Rico?
It sure looks more impressive than other Invests I have seen!

Can you say 96L????

[SouthFloridawx]

well we'll just wait for the nhc @ 5 .

[Vortex]

Heading right for Florida.....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Kennethb]

Yup. Getting past middle September. Troughs will begin to have more impacts. Although nothing yet to track, Plenty of time for ridges and troughs to change affect tropical cyclone paths. Gotta keep one eye open. Anything west of New Orleans raises concerns for rising tides.

It would not take a strong storm going into the westerm GOM to increase the tides and affect the draining and recovery efforts.

[Nimbus]

The 18Z NAM is scary.
Are the other models showing similar isobar lines for the ridge?

[SouthFloridawx]

A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... PUERTO
RICO... AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE.

[tailgater]

http://www.remss.com/sst/sst_data_daily.html
Go to Aug 30th and the GOM region then back to SEPT 16th. gulf and area east of Fla have warm back up to near norm.

[cjrciadt]

All three waves mentioned here on the local news. The 'PR' wave is expected to be right over the Keys as only a "wave" by Mon eveing. They must be going by the GFS.

[jrod]

All three waves mentioned here on the local news. The 'PR' wave is expected to be right over the Keys as only a "wave" by Mon eveing. They must be going by the GFS.

I dont know how a lot of those news weather people can call themselves meteorologists. I think saying this will only be a wave when it gets to the keys is irresponsible. No one knows the track or the intensity this thing will have. And with the waters still hot in that area every blob needs to be watched.

That area is looking really ragged right now so I dont expect anything to happpen overnight, but I do think it will develop once it gets over those hot waters near the Bahamas.

[truballer#1]

http://www.remss.com/sst/sst_data_daily.html
Go to Aug 30th and the GOM region then back to SEPT 16th. gulf and area east of Fla have warm back up to near norm.

thats pretty cool,

[cjrciadt]

http://www.remss.com/sst/sst_data_daily.html
Go to Aug 30th and the GOM region then back to SEPT 16th. gulf and area east of Fla have warm back up to near norm.

thats pretty cool,

Waters in the S. bahamas are close to 32 according to that SST map, no way this stays "just a wave" before the Keys and S. FL.

[skysummit]

What if 95 and 96 continue to develop and both turn into potent systems.....could it last? Would they be too close to one another to each have a life of it's own, or would they be just far enough and at the perfect angle from each other to not feel each other's affects?

Any opinions?

[CHRISTY]

wow! are you kidding me again!we just finished cleaning up after katrina.i think there is a could chance this could become farely strong because its got more room then katrina did i will be watching this weekend for sure!!!

[cjrciadt]

What if 95 and 96 continue to develop and both turn into potent systems.....could it last? Would they be too close to one another to each have a life of it's own, or would they be just far enough and at the perfect angle from each other to not feel each other's affects?

Any opinions?

It is possible, just look at Maria, Nate, and Ophelia when they lined up. The CMC believes a TS can survive in front of a big cane just fine.

[ronjon]

All three waves mentioned here on the local news. The 'PR' wave is expected to be right over the Keys as only a "wave" by Mon eveing. They must be going by the GFS.

Yeah, all the local METs in TVland here in Tampa are downplaying the "Wave". Might be due to the local NWS offices not giving it much due in the pm discussions. Look for everyone to be "surprised" when it develops and then go into overhyped tropical cyclone alert status. It's so typical of the media. That's why I'm glad there is storm2K and CFHC websites to get the early scoop on these systems. Bravo!