Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#21 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:49 pm

It would be somewhat unusual for a system to form here and enter the Gulf and eventually continue on a west track clear to Mexico or Texas without the westerlies coming into play to turn it northward. I'm not saying it couldn't happen this time of year, but it would be highly unusual.

#22 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:56 pm

This is what the CMC, GFS, MM5, and NOGAPS are saying....right toward the BOC.

Website · #23 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:01 pm

Ack.

ronjon · #24 Postby **ronjon** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:07 pm

skysummit wrote:This is what the CMC, GFS, MM5, and NOGAPS are saying....right toward the BOC.

Have to be a little careful here on tracks 5 days out. Just look at Ophelias forecasts over the last week to verify their inaccuracy 3-5 days out. Also, none of the globals, with the exception of CMC develop the system prior to FL - and the one that does, brings it into S FL. The 18Z NAM also brings a well-developed storm into FL. Any system that develops quickly will get pulled more NW into the weakness left by the Big O. Yes, I think the Ridge will rebuild and it'll turn west at some point, but how much latitude does it gain prior to that point. Could be the difference between it crossing Cent FL or the FL Straights.

beachbum_al · #25 Postby **beachbum_al** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:36 pm

They are talking about it here in Alabama but not getting over excited yet. Just something to watch and worry about it when that time comes if needed.

#26 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:50 pm

Here's from NWS Nola:

WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
BUILDS BACK TO THE EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND LOWER MEAN LAYERED
HUMIDITY VALUES. IN THE EXTENDED...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE
BROAD NOTION OF A TROUGH/LOW WORKING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GULFMEX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BRINGING THE WINDS UP A BIT OVER THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK. RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COASTAL
STATES STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE SOUTH
OF OUR AREA.

#27 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:52 pm

The Danger Zone is blossoming!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latest.gif

CHRISTY · #28 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:56 pm

look at this model!

truballer#1 · #29 Postby **truballer#1** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:57 pm

looks like could take exact same trck as katrina but a lil more south.

#30 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:11 pm

The convection on 96L seems to be dying down. Could it flare up again later on tonight?

<RICKY>

#31 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:16 pm

AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM N OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS BEING PRODUCED BY A COMBINATION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...THE SRN EXTENT OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N70W. THE CONVECTION LIES ON THE DIFFLUENT E
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND IS BEING FORCED BY SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE BEING OBSCURED BY CLOUD COVER. A SURFACE
LOW HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS OF YET...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOON IF
THE CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME.
ASSUMING THE LOW WILL DEVELOP...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN AREA FROM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO
THE EXTREME SRN BAHAMAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 60W-68W.

8 PM Discussion.

MiamiensisWx · #32 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:17 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:The convection on 96L seems to be dying down. Could it flare up again later on tonight?

<RICKY>

The reason why it is looking raggedy right now is due to shear from the trough and ULL in front of it. Yes, it could get another flare-up periodically.

The shear may lessen gradually, possibly allowing for gradual intensification, then possibly faster intensification after that.

truballer#1 · #33 Postby **truballer#1** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:28 pm

can some one post the model intensiy forcast map for invest 96l?

wzrgirl1 · #34 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:31 pm

could this get stronger then a low before impacting florida?

MiamiensisWx · #35 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:34 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:could this get stronger then a low before impacting florida?

It could, as (and if) the shear relaxes. Anything is possible if things change (which they can). However, I am not expecting a strong storm (at the moment), although it may become a named system.

NOTE: Systems need to be at least a tropical storm to be given a name.

CHRISTY · #36 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:45 pm

cmc model has it as a hurricane.

truballer#1 · #37 Postby **truballer#1** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:48 pm

CHRISTY wrote:cmc model has it as a hurricane.

how u kno that its a cane. pressure is 1000

MiamiensisWx · #38 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:49 pm

1000MB would be either a strong tropical depression or a minimal to possibly moderate tropical storm.

truballer#1 · #39 Postby **truballer#1** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:50 pm

truballer#1 wrote:can some one post the model intensiy forcast map for invest 96l?

someone?

CHRISTY · #40 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 8:06 pm