Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cjrciadt
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#41 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Sep 16, 2005 8:33 pm

A TD by Mon. off FL seems likely now. Forecasting strength and intensity are very different animals.
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CHRISTY

96L and 95L!

#42 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Sep 16, 2005 8:41 pm

Image 96L and 95L!
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CHRISTY

#43 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Sep 16, 2005 8:44 pm

thats 96L what looks like a pretty strong tropical storm!and 95L who knows.....
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#44 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:05 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050917 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050917 0000 050917 1200 050918 0000 050918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.9N 63.1W 21.4N 64.4W 21.9N 65.5W 22.2N 66.7W
BAMM 20.9N 63.1W 21.5N 64.8W 22.1N 66.4W 22.7N 67.9W
A98E 20.9N 63.1W 21.0N 63.8W 21.3N 64.8W 21.9N 66.0W
LBAR 20.9N 63.1W 21.5N 64.1W 21.9N 65.0W 22.8N 65.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050919 0000 050920 0000 050921 0000 050922 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 67.8W 22.4N 70.1W 21.8N 72.4W 21.6N 74.0W
BAMM 23.2N 69.4W 23.6N 72.3W 23.0N 75.4W 22.5N 78.0W
A98E 22.5N 67.8W 22.9N 72.2W 22.9N 76.6W 22.0N 79.4W
LBAR 23.7N 66.1W 25.6N 66.6W 27.7N 67.3W 30.1N 67.0W
SHIP 54KTS 66KTS 73KTS 76KTS
DSHP 54KTS 66KTS 73KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.9N LONCUR = 63.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 20.7N LONM12 = 62.4W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 20.3N LONM24 = 61.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Models.
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Canelaw99
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#45 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:35 pm

In graphic format anyone?? (I am a text challenged person LOL)
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#46 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:37 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:In graphic format anyone?? (I am a text challenged person LOL)


Image
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#47 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:38 pm

I like the clueless LBAR model right now. :D
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#48 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:39 pm

Thanks Brent :)
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#49 Postby Windy » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:39 pm

Lol -- three of us posted the same map at the same time!
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#50 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:46 pm

Well, only 1/4 of those models make it a fish and I doubt that will play out...those other 3 don't seem to bad for me here in SE Florida but I feel bad if this thing gets to the gulf...we don't need that...Everyone together now...FISH, FISH, FISH, FISH...Go FISH!!! Wishful thinking...
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#51 Postby krysof » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:50 pm

those are the worst models to possibly use, they are never accurate like the Nogaps, Gfs, Gfdl, and Ukmet.
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#52 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:51 pm

LBAR has been really bad all season...it had Ophelia basically making a 40 mph beeline back towards africa for about 16 straight model runs
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#53 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:57 pm

Id rather wait for more global model runs.

<RICKY>
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#54 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:12 pm

10:30pm TWO:

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... PUERTO RICO... AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 200
MILES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE.
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#55 Postby nequad » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:13 pm

those are the worst models to possibly use, they are never accurate like the Nogaps, Gfs, Gfdl, and Ukmet.



The globals pretty much take it on a simialr track. Across Cuba...then the Yucatan...and into the BOC. Certainly a bit strange...but plausible given the strength of the ridge.

At this point in the season nothing would surprise me. We have seen a lot of crazy things this year.
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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:20 pm

Image
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#57 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:21 pm

Long range loop from San Juan suggests some circulation may be there...


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml
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#58 Postby PurdueWx80 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:56 pm

The 00Z Canadian regional run is certainly quite bullish on the development of 96L. If I remember correctly, it has been performing rather well lately.

Image
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#59 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:59 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:The 00Z Canadian regional run is certainly quite bullish on the development of 96L. If I remember correctly, it has been performing rather well lately.

Image


in your professional opinion Purdue, how much weight would you put on the Canadian about 96L right now?

<RICKY>
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#60 Postby Scorpion » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:00 pm

Ouch. Would be a nasty surprise here, and perhaps for the GOM.
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