Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

nequad · #421 Postby **nequad** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:51 pm

30HR GFS from tonights 00Z run...shows all three systems nicely.

Scorpion · #422 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:51 pm

Looks pretty good. They should find a TD tomorrow barring any visits by Mr Shear.

nequad · #423 Postby **nequad** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:52 pm

And a fourth to boot...SW of the CV.

#424 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:00 pm

96 doesn't look too impressive over the Bahamas and off the SE coast of FL. However, 95 and the two waves behind certainly look as if they bear watching. Oh, no! A "bear watch" (OK, It's late on Friday night after along week!)

Lynn

nequad · #425 Postby **nequad** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:06 pm

78 HR GFS...Note 96 over the Yucatan Channel.... 95 hanging on...and CV wave developing nicely.

nequad · #426 Postby **nequad** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:07 pm

If that pans out...my oh my. I don't know about 2 CV system at the same time...but who knows.

:eek:

oneness · #427 Postby **oneness** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:33 pm

Has anyone be watching the convective build up immediately to the east of the new rotation? It's looking pretty good as well.

edit: disregard, I see there is a thread about it.

vaffie · #428 Postby **vaffie** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:41 pm

Just look at that Bermuda High! Look how big and strong it is! And unlike other years when there are strong cold fronts defending the east coast, there's nothing this time. This could be a horrible next few weeks for powerful landfalling Cape Verde storms. It's a frightening but increasingly likely possibility. With such a strong high too, some of those storms other than 96L will make it into the Gulf too. Watch out!

Scorpion · #429 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:47 pm

Yes, finally we are reaching a good area for TC development. Wet MJO coming in. Could everything before this have been a mere test? Will this period be worse than Dennis/Emily and Katrina?? We shall see.

JTD · #430 Postby **JTD** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:16 am

Scorpion wrote:Yes, finally we are reaching a good area for TC development. Wet MJO coming in. Could everything before this have been a mere test? Will this period be worse than Dennis/Emily and Katrina?? We shall see.

Nothing could be worse than Katrina. Even Miami getting a category 5 wouldn't be as bad as what happened to the Gulf Coast. Katrina affected 8 states.

The one thing worse would be a cat 5 into NYC but that is impossible meterologically speaking.

#431 Postby **Fego** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:36 am

11:00 pm NWS San Juan, Puerto Rico on Invest 95 etcetera

RETURNING TO THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE...MODELS INDICATE THAT ONE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPED JUST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
WEST AND MOVE ACROSS CUBA TOMORROW...BUT THE GENERAL TROUGH WILL
MOVE VERY LITTLE...AND ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ITS PLACE
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OF THE ISLAND. IN THE MEANTIME THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR EAST SOUTHEAST IS LOOKING MUCH LESS LIKE A
WAVE...AS ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS FLAGGING...BUT IT STILL HAS NOT
SHOWN ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
MODELS ARE AMBIVALENT ON WHETHER THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS OR REMAINS A
WAVE. ON SUNDAY ONE CAN SEE A DEFINITE CIRCULATION MOVING NORTHWEST
IN THE GFS...BUT THAT RE-OPENS AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND WAVE
ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF US EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE ONE THING THAT
APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON THE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WILL BE THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT APPEARS TO
CONNECT THE THE TUTT INDUCED CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 12 NORTH AND 54
WEST. MODELS SHOW THIS BAND MOST PROMINENTLY ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 12Z ON SATURDAY. THEN THE
BAND STRETCHES AND WEAKENS TO THE SOUTH AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY 00Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY...STILL CONNECTED TO THE DISTURBANCE THAT
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THE DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING MOST OF
THE CONVECTION TO ITS NORTHEAST ALONG 18.5 NORTH FROM 64 WEST TO 51
WEST WHILE IT FADES INTO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER US BY MID WEEK
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLANDS. THEN MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALONG 51 WEST
NEAR 13 NORTH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.

MODELS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN THAT THEY DO NOT HANDLE THESE SYSTEMS
WELL...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR DEVELOPMENT THAT
IS USUALLY NOT PICKED UP UNTIL AFTER THE FACT BY THE GFS...BUT SO
FAR THE MODEL HAS DONE WELL IN SHOWING THE GENERAL LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE
CIRCULATION...OR RATHER LACK OF ONE...IN THE INITIALIZATION.
THEREFORE CONSIDER THAT THE RISK OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER US IN THE
NEXT 96 TO 120 HOURS IS STILL QUITE LOW AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS
FORECAST SOLUTION.

calculatedrisk · #432 Postby **calculatedrisk** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:46 am

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.3 53.5 305./ 9.9
6 12.5 53.8 304./ 3.3
12 13.6 54.0 350./11.9
18 14.2 54.2 342./ 6.3

STORM DISSIPATED AT 18 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05091705

Anonymous · #433 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:07 am

Continued organizaion

#434 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:32 am

We are probably getting close to a TD...in fact by 11AM I fully expect to see TD17 out there...and conditions appear favorable for continued development.

Wow...with the models initalized at 30 knots...the SHIPS model makes 95L a major in 5 days...

No rest for the weary.

MW

cirrus971 · #435 Postby **cirrus971** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:39 am

17/0600 UTC 12.1N 54.1W T2.0/2.0 95
TD soon

southerngreen · #436 Postby **southerngreen** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:31 am

Would someone be so kind as to tell the less informed what the abbreviations on the spaghetti models stand for. I know some of them, but not all & I'm sure there are others wondering.
Thanks ya'll.

#437 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:23 am

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES... A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

5:30 AM TWO.

Nimbus · #438 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:34 am

The convection finally consolidated over the low level circulation.
There is a floater on it now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #439 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:35 am

I expect the upgrade to be at 11am.

#440 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:41 am

This message is to our fellow members who live in the islands.Keep in touch and be on alert because as I see things in some way this system will affect the NE Caribbean islands.Without rush if you start to prepare today the better from Puerto Rico eastward including Culebra,Vieques,USVI,BVI,and the Leewards because we have time to do so as the system is not moving very fast.I can see watches posted for some of the islands later today.

Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

NWS San Juan

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