Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[THead]

What's that last number, 965 or 955? I guess it wouldn't matter much, both wouldn't be good news.

[WeatherEmperor]

What's that last number, 965 or 955? I guess it wouldn't matter much, both wouldn't be good news.

i think it would say 965. its very hard to say ofcourase but that would be logical in that graphic.

<RICKY>

[PurdueWx80]

To be honest, I think this will develop into a significant hurricane (perhaps major), but likely not until it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the trough following Ophelia doesn't capture it, which I don't see happening unless the storm develops farther north (wow was that a run-on sentence if ever there were one). I don't see a 965 mb storm less than 48 hours from now given the state of convection with the wave now, but the track looks decent. After that, I'd imagine this will get sucked WSW under the ridge forecast to develop over the southern CONUS and northern Gulf. As of now, I'd imagine this storm will make it's way to the western Gulf or Bay of Campeche - by that point it's got 2 options: go into Mexico OR get stuck on the SW side of a weakening ridge until the next trough can send it north. That is too far away to know for sure now - and the storm hasn't even developed yet.

The forecast upper level pattern is ripe for development once the storm gets to the southern CONUS ridge, with excellent outflow forecast in all directions. This would likely stay near and then south of Katrina's path into the Gulf, where the waters are more or less untouched.

[wxmann_91]

To be honest, I think this will develop into a significant hurricane (perhaps major), but likely not until it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the trough following Ophelia doesn't capture it, which I don't see happening unless the storm develops farther north (wow was that a run-on sentence if ever there were one). I don't see a 965 mb storm less than 48 hours from now given the state of convection with the wave now, but the track looks decent. After that, I'd imagine this will get sucked WSW under the ridge forecast to develop over the southern CONUS and northern Gulf. As of now, I'd imagine this storm will make it's way to the western Gulf or Bay of Campeche - by that point it's got 2 options: go into Mexico OR get stuck on the SW side of a weakening ridge until the next trough can send it north. That is too far away to know for sure now - and the storm hasn't even developed yet.

The forecast upper level pattern is ripe for development once the storm gets to the southern CONUS ridge, with excellent outflow forecast in all directions. This would likely stay near and then south of Katrina's path into the Gulf, where the waters are more or less untouched.

Ahh, so you mean a path like this?

[PurdueWx80]

It's 965.

[PurdueWx80]

Ahh, so you mean a path like this?

Well, much further south than that. Like I said, the other option is for it to get to the western Gulf and sit until the pattern changes to more troughiness in the center/east of the country.

[bayoubebe]

Our local meterlogist said if anything was to develop and get in the gulf, it would likely stay to our south and possible head to Mexico. And not be a concern for the gulf coast. Bob Breck will probably be back out with his vipir model if something develops.

Which local met? The guys in WWL were just as wrong as Breck with Katrina, this far out.

Hi, everyone. Katrina survivor here.

I agree with you. Breck was horribile, and the other meteorolgists weren't much better.

We had like 2 days warning that Katrina was headed to N.O.

I wasn't aware that any of the local television stations were up and running in New Orleans. I've seen some at their sister stations. I haven't seen Breck, Margaret Orr, Dan Milham, Carl Arrod???, or any of them.

Then again, we just got our channels back a few days ago.

[WeatherEmperor]

Purdue, what are your thoughts on this system prior to getting to Florida(if it ever makes it there). Many were saying that the system that eventually became Katrina wouldnt do much until it got into the GOM but it made landfall in south florida as a minimal hurricane, anyways. Is it possible that 96L could also pull of something similar, although not the same?

<RICKY>

[nequad]

108 HR GFS...note 96 over BOC.

[bayoubebe]

nequad: Could you please tell me what the heck that is that you posted?? LOL

I'm just an average lay person, non-meteorologist.

[skysummit]

nequad: Could you please tell me what the heck that is that you posted?? LOL

I'm just an average lay person, non-meteorologist.

It shows a possible 4 systems....one in the Bay of Campeche and 3 in the Atlantic.

[bayoubebe]

nequad: Could you please tell me what the heck that is that you posted?? LOL

I'm just an average lay person, non-meteorologist.

It shows a possible 4 systems....one in the Bay of Campeche and 3 in the Atlantic.

Thanks. I've not heard a word about any of those here locally.

Is it unusual to have 4 possibile systems out there at one time?

Is it true that (to put it in lay terms, lol) the gulf is worn out from Katrina and therefore, not possibile to strengthen or develop a hurricane out there?

[bayoubebe]

nequad: Could you please tell me what the heck that is that you posted?? LOL

I'm just an average lay person, non-meteorologist.

It shows a possible 4 systems....one in the Bay of Campeche and 3 in the Atlantic.

How are you btw? Did you have damage in Houma?

Are you home yet?

[PurdueWx80]

Purdue, what are your thoughts on this system prior to getting to Florida(if it ever makes it there). Many were saying that the system that eventually became Katrina wouldnt do much until it got into the GOM but it made landfall in south florida as a minimal hurricane, anyways. Is it possible that 96L could also pull of something similar, although not the same?

<RICKY>

I could see this as being a hurricane in the Keys.

[skysummit]

The gulf is still PLENTY warm to support hurricane activity. There have been times in the past when there were 4 named systems at one time. Don't take too much into those models though. Lots of them seem to develop systems out of nothing sometimes, but with the kind of activity we've seen this year, anything is possible.

[nequad]

nequad: Could you please tell me what the heck that is that you posted?? LOL

I'm just an average lay person, non-meteorologist.

Gladly! It is the 108 HR surface map from the 00Z GFS model. It shows
system 96L in the Bay opf Campeche...95 L north of the Islands...and 2 other tropical systems east of 95.

Keep in mind this is just one model. Nothing you see here is set in stone.
However...all available guidance I have viewed shows 96L taking a westerly track across Cuba and then SW across the Yucatan and into the BOC. All similar to the GFS.

[skysummit]

nequad: Could you please tell me what the heck that is that you posted?? LOL

I'm just an average lay person, non-meteorologist.

It shows a possible 4 systems....one in the Bay of Campeche and 3 in the Atlantic.

How are you btw? Did you have damage in Houma?

Are you home yet?

We didn't have that much damage in Houma...just a little structural here and there, but nothing much. No flooding either. I rode the storm out in Covington at my office, and been working in New Orleans for the past 3 weeks.

[Brent]

Is it unusual to have 4 possibile systems out there at one time?

Unusual, yes, but not unheard of.

4 at one time last year: Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, and Lisa and 4 at one time in 1998... Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl.

[bayoubebe]

Thank you nequad and skysummit.

I've learned more on this forum then from all my years watching the weather channel. LOL!

sky: Sorry to keep loading you down with questions, but this has been a great source of information.

If I may ask you one more: do you know what the extent of damage is to Venice and Grand Isle?

My family fishes there quite often and there was a boat stored in Venice. We've heard conflicting reports.

Is there still a Grand Isle?

[bayoubebe]

Is it unusual to have 4 possibile systems out there at one time?

Unusual, yes, but not unheard of.

4 at one time last year: Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, and Lisa and 4 at one time in 1998... Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl.

Ivan and Jeanne are bad lil hurricanes! They keep showing up together.

Glad to hear you made it okay thru Katrina skysummit.