Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[skysummit]

Thank you nequad and skysummit.

I've learned more on this forum then from all my years watching the weather channel. LOL!

sky: Sorry to keep loading you down with questions, but this has been a great source of information.

If I may ask you one more: do you know what the extent of damage is to Venice and Grand Isle?

My family fishes there quite often and there was a boat stored in Venice. We've heard conflicting reports.

Is there still a Grand Isle?

There was a lot of damage in Grand Isle, but as far as I know, there still is an island. As for Venice, I'm not too sure it's there anymore. I know Pilot Town no longer exists. The water down that way has never gone down, and we don't know if it ever will. I'm afraid the southern half of Plaquemines Parish will be lost. I was only able to go about halfway down the parish until I could go no more....the rest was the gulf. This was earlier in the week.

[bayoubebe]

I'm afraid the southern half of Plaquemines Parish will be lost. I was only able to go about halfway down the parish until I could go no more....the rest was the gulf. This was earlier in the week.

Wow! Scary and sad thought.

Thanks for all the info.

Have a great evening!

[skysummit]

I'm afraid the southern half of Plaquemines Parish will be lost. I was only able to go about halfway down the parish until I could go no more....the rest was the gulf. This was earlier in the week.

Wow! Scary and sad thought.

Thanks for all the info.

Have a great evening!

You too!!!

[vaffie]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

You can see 96L nicely on radar now. Based on satellite and radar, it is rapidly consolidating now. At this rate, I think they may classify it as a depression by the Saturday 5 or 11 pm advisory. I think it will develop into Philippe before 95L. Two potentially powerful systems are in the making. Keep an eye on them.

[skysummit]

I've been watch TJUA on GRLevel3 all evening and I still don't see anything...just a bunch of showers. What do you see?

[wxmann_91]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.tjua.shtml

You can see 96L nicely on radar now. Based on satellite and radar, it is rapidly consolidating now. At this rate, I think they may classify it as a depression by the Saturday 5 or 11 pm advisory. I think it will develop into Philippe before 95L. Two potentially powerful systems are in the making. Keep an eye on them.

I don't see rapid consolidation, in fact, convection is waning now.

[jlauderdal]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.tjua.shtml

You can see 96L nicely on radar now. Based on satellite and radar, it is rapidly consolidating now. At this rate, I think they may classify it as a depression by the Saturday 5 or 11 pm advisory. I think it will develop into Philippe before 95L. Two potentially powerful systems are in the making. Keep an eye on them.

I don't see rapid consolidation, in fact, convection is waning now.

96l back in business this morning with convection and an improving atmosphere to work with. I suspect in the next cycle or two we dont see it pulse down and then we have a low level circulation. 95 and 96 bothe getting more to work with from this point forward as the shear lessens and of course SST's in good shape especially 95 as it is virgin water more or less. If they develop then it will be interesting to see which one becomes the dominent feature as I supect 95 will BUT the CMC has been pretty stubborn with development. We know this much, that ridge is building in and the question is how much.

[Vortex]

The nam continues to indicate the approach of a cyclone towards Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_084l.gif

[jlauderdal]

The nam continues to indicate the approach of a cyclone towards Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_084l.gif

the question from now on will be intensity as it seems the direction is a done deal.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050917 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050917 1200 050918 0000 050918 1200 050919 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.3N 67.4W 22.0N 68.8W 22.6N 70.1W 23.1N 71.5W
BAMM 21.3N 67.4W 22.0N 69.0W 22.6N 70.6W 23.1N 72.2W
A98E 21.3N 67.4W 22.0N 70.0W 22.6N 72.2W 23.1N 74.3W
LBAR 21.3N 67.4W 22.2N 69.2W 23.1N 70.8W 23.7N 72.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050919 1200 050920 1200 050921 1200 050922 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 73.0W 23.4N 75.8W 23.3N 78.2W 23.8N 79.9W
BAMM 23.4N 73.8W 23.5N 77.1W 23.3N 80.2W 23.3N 82.8W
A98E 23.6N 76.6W 23.4N 81.6W 22.8N 86.2W 22.0N 89.2W
LBAR 24.2N 73.2W 24.9N 75.1W 25.2N 76.0W 26.5N 77.1W
SHIP 52KTS 66KTS 79KTS 87KTS
DSHP 52KTS 66KTS 79KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.3N LONCUR = 67.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 20.5N LONM12 = 64.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 62.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Models.

[Canelaw99]

The nam continues to indicate the approach of a cyclone towards Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_084l.gif

How has the NAM performed this year overall?

[krysof]

has it? I don't ever follow the Nam.

[ronjon]

Looks like a circulation center has formed around 21N-67W - can't tell yet if its a LLC or MLC. The ULL to the west is moving away & conditions look favorable for development into a trop depression later today or tomorrow. Models that don't develop it move it along the north coast of Cuba but the ones that do, such as CMC and NAM, move it toward S FL.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Hurricanehink]

Looks like a circulation center has formed around 21N-67W - can't tell yet if its a LLC or MLC. The ULL to the west is moving away & conditions look favorable for development into a trop depression later today or tomorrow. Models that don't develop it move it along the north coast of Cuba but the ones that do, such as CMC and NAM, move it toward S FL.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I think you may be right. It looks like a circulation is developing there. This thing should spin up during the next day.

[WindRunner]

Looks like a circulation center has formed around 21N-67W - can't tell yet if its a LLC or MLC. The ULL to the west is moving away & conditions look favorable for development into a trop depression later today or tomorrow. Models that don't develop it move it along the north coast of Cuba but the ones that do, such as CMC and NAM, move it toward S FL.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I think you may be right. It looks like a circulation is developing there. This thing should spin up during the next day.

Maybe a TD18 at 5?

[Hyperstorm]

This morning there appears to be a Low level Circulation developing with Invest 96L very near 21.9N 67.3W. I still can't see strong westerly component of the low level winds to the south, but is definitely in its formative stages. There is currently no inflow being drawn toward it at this point, which opens the possibility of a new LLC developing just underneath the convection further NE.

Here's a simple image depicting with a circle where the developing LLC is. The arrow points at the area of the convection that seems to get the most inflow and could eventually spawn a LLC, if the other one weakens.



Regardless of where the LLC is, this system is quite likely a "go". Upper-Level conditions are only expected to improve. I'm afraid we could be looking at a powerful storm head westward toward the Gulf of Mexico later this week...

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 171300
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.4 66.2 275./11.1
6 21.0 67.2 305./10.6
12 21.8 67.7 324./ 9.4
18 22.4 68.3 315./ 8.2
24 22.8 69.5 291./11.6
30 23.3 70.5 295./10.0
36 23.7 71.2 300./ 8.2
42 23.9 72.0 283./ 7.3
48 23.9 72.8 269./ 7.6
54 23.9 73.9 271./10.1
60 23.8 74.8 260./ 7.7
66 23.8 75.6 271./ 7.7
72 23.6 76.8 260./10.8
78 23.6 77.8 269./ 9.1
84 23.5 78.7 264./ 9.0
90 23.5 79.5 277./ 7.2
96 23.6 80.3 275./ 7.5
102 23.8 81.1 284./ 7.5
108 24.0 81.8 285./ 7.0
114 24.3 82.3 300./ 4.6
120 24.6 82.9 301./ 6.6
126 25.0 83.3 316./ 5.5


6z GFDL for 96L.

[tailgater]

nequad: Could you please tell me what the heck that is that you posted?? LOL

I'm just an average lay person, non-meteorologist.

I'm sorry you just cracked me up

[ronjon]

Holy Katrina ..I mean 96L. Did anyone see the 06Z GFDL run on 96L? The run brings the storm to a 137 kt hurricane in 5 days off the SW cost of FL with a pressure down around KAT levels near 920 mb. Okay, before I get the usual cascade of posts that it's only one model run, the depression hasn't even formed yet, and you know how much the models change 5 days out - do I expect this, no, but I just thought I'd mention it - the tropics are really heating up now.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Brent]

Holy Katrina ..I mean 96L. Did anyone see the 06Z GFDL run on 96L? The run brings the storm to a 137 kt hurricane in 5 days off the SW cost of FL with a pressure down around KAT levels near 920 mb. Okay, before I get the usual cascade of posts that it's only one model run, the depression hasn't even formed yet, and you know how much the models change 5 days out - do I expect this, no, but I just thought I'd mention it - the tropics are really heating up now.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Yeah... It's very close to the Keys too and has a northerly component on motion then... bad for the Northern Gulf.