Tropical Depression Philippe Advisories=Last Advisorie

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:43 am

Here we go with 17 and probably more.

WONT41 KNHC 171216
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. THE FIRST ADVISORY ON
THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 AM AST...1500Z.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:35 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
1500Z SAT SEP 17 2005

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.7N 55.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 56.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.1N 57.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 55.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

Website · #3 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:35 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 305 MILES... 490 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.0 N... 55.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Website · #4 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:37 am

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:44 am

Depression Seventeen Forecast/Advisory Number 1

Statement as of 15:00Z on September 17, 2005

interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
depression. Watches or warnings may be required for portions of
the Lesser Antilles later today or tonight.

Tropical depression center located near 13.0n 55.0w at 17/1500z
position accurate within 45 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1008 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 13.0n 55.0w at 17/1500z
at 17/1200z center was located near 12.8n 54.8w

forecast valid 18/0000z 13.7n 55.9w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 30se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 18/1200z 14.9n 56.9w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 19/0000z 16.1n 57.9w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 25se 20sw 25nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 19/1200z 17.3n 58.9w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 30sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 20/1200z 19.5n 61.0w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 80sw 120nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 21/1200z 21.0n 62.5w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.

Outlook valid 22/1200z 22.5n 63.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.0n 55.0w

next advisory at 17/2100z

forecaster Beven

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:44 am

Is it just me or do they seem VERY uncertain? Well east of the islands, but watches or warnings may be required??

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:46 am

Brent wrote:Is it just me or do they seem VERY uncertain? Well east of the islands, but watches or warnings may be required??

I am still not sold on a miss to at least the northern Leewards yet until it is seen a true motion and recon has the real fix.

#8 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:49 am

cycloneye wrote:
Brent wrote:Is it just me or do they seem VERY uncertain? Well east of the islands, but watches or warnings may be required??

I am still not sold on a miss to at least the northern Leewards yet until it is seen a true motion and recon has the real fix.

I agree with you...

Janice · #9 Postby **Janice** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:51 am

Well, my husband gets home from HongKong on Wednesday, so I hope this stays away from Puerto Rico.

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:51 am

Hope they are right :wink:

Scorpion · #11 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:53 am

I don't really buy that track to the north. The ridge is there.

Website · #12 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:54 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER...OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...AS 40 KT WINDS SEEN IN A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD RAIN CONTAMINATION
PROBLEMS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND HOW MUCH THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE REFORMED DURING THE NIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS
ARE UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM DID NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY
WELL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FARTHER EAST
GFDL AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE MORE WESTERLY BAM MODELS AND
LBAR.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT. THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING
SHOULD OCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT BY 120 HR...AND THIS A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR THE GFDL.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER THE POSITION AND
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE ARE BETTER ESTABLISHED.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 13.0N 55.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 13.7N 55.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 56.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.1N 57.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 61.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 62.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 63.5W 95 KT

#13 Postby **msbee** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:57 am

I was hoping the update at 11 AM would show a WNW track, not the NW one.
That means the Northern islands have to watch this very carefully.
Although if it really stays on a solid NW track, it can pass North and east of us maybe?

schmita · #14 Postby **schmita** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:13 am

Kinda close no?
72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 61.0W 75 KT

Website · #15 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:14 am

schmita wrote::eek:
Kinda close no?
72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 61.0W 75 KT

Especially when the 3-day track errors can be 150 miles or so...

HUC · #16 Postby **HUC** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:01 am

Watching this one very carefully;it's slow movement(unusual for this area),the water temperature,the HP moving in tandem,all these ingredients make me suspicious of a developping storm that certainly can threating seriously at least the leeward islands.Also,we can be in alert of heavy seas monday,tuesday,and imo wenesday...a serious threat indeed

OURAGAN · #17 Postby **OURAGAN** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:20 am

Hello Mr Huc , do you think this one will affect us.
Nhc in not sure of the track and it is moving very slowly.

OURAGAN · #18 Postby **OURAGAN** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:30 am

Here is the french meteoflash about the uncertainty of the track:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ash_gd.jpg

#19 Postby **msbee** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:40 am

all we can do is watch and wait

HUC · #20 Postby **HUC** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:21 pm

as msbee said,wait and see;however,for a system like this one and where it is to track NO,or NNO,it requires a strong weakness in the gradient pressure north of it .
It seems to me(but i'am not an expert,only an amateur) that the HP on top of this system will play a role,in developping the depression,and also forcing the steer flow to draw a bit to the west n west.
In fact,i think a real possibility that this disturbance cross the leeward sometime monday.
But,these are only speculations,and the plane will send info more accurate.

Tropical Depression Philippe Advisories=Last Advisorie

Tropical Depression Philippe Advisories=Last Advisorie

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