Tropical Depression forms between 9/18 - 9/20

[Jim Hughes]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2K.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I believe that we will see a tropical depression develop between 9/18 - 9/20 . I am basing this forecast on the cyclical nature of certain variables that I have previously spoken about.

I may add an area to watch for devlopment after further research. I sincerely hope that this forecast pans out since it was read over the radio air waves in the Washington DC area earlier this morning on The Tony Kornheiser Show.

Tony was talking about Hurricane Katrina like everyone else this morning. I happened to hear him mention that Global warming was the cause of these strong storms.

I sent him a short e-mail about the cyclical nature of the Atlantic and I briefly mentioned my opinion about the space weather effect upon tropical systems as well as the above forecast.

Tony had read my Janury 5th forecast calling for a NE snowstorm between the January 22nd-24th this past winter. He hyped the storm up more than TWC by speaking about it everyday for a week before it occurred. My forecast included.

Tony's daily 9-11am show repeats between 11am-1pm

You can hear it here. He read my e-mail between 9:45-9:50am

So it should it will be read around 12:45 pm again.

http://www.sportstalk980.com/listenlive.php


Jim

[TPACane04]

Jim, Jim, Jim....

1. Why post this on the biggest day of the season so far..this is a big "who cares?" I know you are all excited about being pimped on the radio, but come on....
2. Pretty easy to throw a prediction out there for something to fire at the statistical PEAK of the season.
3. If you want to really impress us, call a development spot and potential impact area.

THEN..if your prediction holds true, I will be forever impressed.

[Jim Hughes]

Jim, Jim, Jim....

1. Why post this on the biggest day of the season so far..this is a big "who cares?" I know you are all excited about being pimped on the radio, but come on....
2. Pretty easy to throw a prediction out there for something to fire at the statistical PEAK of the season.
3. If you want to really impress us, call a development spot and potential impact area.

THEN..if your prediction holds true, I will be forever impressed.

I actually wanted to make this forecast a few days ago but I purposely waited for Katrina to make landfall. Other posts regarding TD 13's formation have rightfully been posted and many other...non important ones.

I had just gotten back from vacation this past Thursday night so I did not have time to make it last week after TD 11 formed last Monday. I would have made it much sooner if it was my choice. But I wanted to look over some space weather data better.

As far as being excited about the radio...No....that's your opinion. I could care less....you do not know me very well. I do not get impressed by celebrities of any kind. The last time I looked they got dressed the same way we all do and they eat, sleep, and go to the bathroom.

I mentioned today's radio show because of some past questions regarding my honesty. Tony mentioned me forecasting last January's snow storm before hand in this morning's radio show.

As far as forecasting during the peak time of the season... I keep on hearing this excuse. It seems that I have to play by a different set of rules. You want me to forecast a hurricane to develop in December.

So should I have waited another few days so that someone like yourself could have said that some long range models were forecasting this depression to form anyway around this time frame ?

What about forecasting less activity at peak time then?
Would this impress you?

On August 8th, 2000 I sent out a forecast to many individuals... news contacts... OCM's ...etc... calling for a quiet time during the peak of the season between September 1st-13th. I said the 14th- 23rd would be more active.

We saw TS Ernesto 9/2-3...TD 9 9/9- 9/9 ... and Hurricane Florence.. who ended up being only a Category 1... formed on the 11th... but she was only a hurricane for 24 hours and she weakend to TS status before the 13th was over. The season ended up being above average ....14/8/3.

Was this a failure also? I guess you probably think that it was just a lucky stab in the dark or maybe you even think that I am lying about it. I can not change the minds of certain people and I am well aware of this.

But I believe allot of people are actually watching what I am talking about and some people have told me that they are following both my observations and posts. All I am trying to do is to open up their minds to a possible relationship.

BTW I did not consider where the peak of the season was when I made this forecast. Nor did I rely heavily any other conventional meteorological method to sway my thinking.

I forecast by what I see and what space weather variables are present. The sun/space weather is cyclical and the variables that I have previously spoken about will be present during these upcoming time frames....again.

Do you know when the most active period of geomagnetic activity occurs on average ?

We are into now. We see another one in six months. This is do to the magnetic field tilt of both the sun and earth.


Jim

[tallbunch]

I don't belive in global warming

[ConvergenceZone]

I think that we will go into a landfall lull for awhile which is good news!!! Every wave/storm that's moving off of Africa seems to heading west-north-west or northwest due to the weakness in the ridge. This is great news as we need a break!! Still might be some fish in the pipeline though. Other than Carib development, which can always happen, I think we'll be getting a decent sized break.

[TPACane04]

Ahh, me touch a nerve.

It is human nature to tell everyone when you are on TV/radio...you may not be a celebrity hound, but you made a very big point in your original post to let us know when the show aired, so I stand by that one.

What if everyone who uses this board does what you did jim? we would have 300 "forecasts/predictions" a day.

I do believe you are an educated man and know of what you speak, but to me, saying something will form on one of three specific days, three weeks from now, just wastes my time.

Tell me WHERE something will form and if it could impact me here in Florida, then I will be cool with it. Otherwise, wait til a week or so away and say, " I see a potential for development in ______ area by Friday"

[mvtrucking]

I enjoy reading your predictions and related info. Thanks Jim.

MV

[Jim Hughes]

Someone started a thread yesterday about this forecast...without mentioning any specifics....nor when I made it ....so I am bumping this post up. Some may have missed it during Katrina's aftermath.

The few replies were the usual feedback I get from certain people....just like the few that showed up yesterday before the other forecasting thread was removed.

I did point out in the August 29th post that I actually went against the grain in 2000 when I forecasted very low activity between September 1st - 13th and I said the 14th -23rd would be more active and it was.

You also have to consider that the first group of days was 13 days and the second group was 10 days. So shouldn't the larger group have had more activity..statistically? I sent this particular forecast out on August 8th, 2000. So I wonder how this accurate forecast is looked upon? I am sure some people will say that they have no proof and that I am lying ....I can not help that. Call some people do some research.

So I seemed to have been off by 9 hours in this forecast but who knows another TD may very well form within the time frame that I gave out 19 days ago.

In my last developmental forecast that I put out last month I said that a TD would form by 8/21/21z. It ended up forming at the 22/15z slightly after my time frame.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70833

It seems like I may have given the actual formation time period to much credit. My first forecast date was centered around the 20th. I prefer to come foward 28 days for a centered date... in reference to the return of certain weather patterns/ favorable conditions.

But I used August 22nd and I came foward 28 days to the 19th...so this was my centered date. If I had used the last guideline from the first forecast it would have been 17th-19th.

The tropics have changed recently compared to the previous week and TD 17 is the first TD to form in the past 11 days. Now we can argue the reasoning for this but it would be futile. So all I can do from my end, is to forecast events/patterns. You make your own decisions.


Jim

[wxmann_91]

Wow Jim, you pretty much nailed it. Nice forecast.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow Jim, you pretty much nailed it. Nice forecast.

something still may form in during his time period.

Jim,


The nhc indicated that a low level pressure has developed and is associated with 96L. What is in its future?

Also with 17L what is in it's future?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Jim you nailed it yet again! Congrats!

[WindRunner]

Amazing as always, Jim.

[Jim Hughes]

Wow Jim, you pretty much nailed it. Nice forecast.

Thanks wxmann_91. Hopefully it stays out of harms way.


Jim

[inotherwords]

I think the information about possible correlation between solar winds and hurricanes on earth is fascinating. It will be very interesting to see what you have to say in the future. Thanks, and don't be turned off by those who aren't keeping an open mind.

[senorpepr]

:nods to Jim: Way to go, Chief. Good job.

[Jim Hughes]

Wow Jim, you pretty much nailed it. Nice forecast.

something still may form in during his time period.

Jim,


The nhc indicated that a low level pressure has developed and is associated with 96L. What is in its future?

Also with 17L what is in it's future?

Well TD17 just formed so I need to look over things. I have been reading some other comments about storm tracks and intensity but I have no opinion of my own just yet.

It is the weekend and I do have a family...I also do not get paid for this. So it is hard for me to tell my wife that this comes first. I will try and post something by tonight or early tomorrow morning.

Thanks...Tampa Bay Hurricane and WindRunner


Jim

[Rainband]

Good job Jim. I don't understand all of it yet, but it is interesting and you do a good job on explaining it

[Jim Hughes]

:nods to Jim: Way to go, Chief. Good job.

Thanks Mike.... now if I could only learn your angle a lttle better...it would help immensely.....my ears are always open. That's why I always read everyones forecasts in the Tropical Analysis Forum.

Jim

[sfwx]

Jim,
I commend you for sticking to your guns and not letting the negative comments by certain people get to you. It's always refreshing to see alternate angles on weather. With continued research, we all may be paying close attention in the years to come. Here's to a job well done.

Eric

[cycloneye]

Excellent Jim about your prediction although one day before but nerverless well done.