Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#141 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:34 am

Thank you Kat

Will definitely be something to watch these next few days. At the very least, we'll probably end up with some rain out of it :wink:

EDIT: Derek, just saw your post, and that concerns me. I take notice when you're getting concerned about a storm in these parts. Gotta go read your analysis/forecast. (P.S. - still waiting for the forecast

)

KatDaddy · #142 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:34 am

144 hrs out......GFS. Now this is starting to look omnious for TX

A hurricane in the WGOM and ridge weakening

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_144l.gif

krysof · #143 Postby **krysof** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:34 am

x-y-no wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:
Ignore the big cane thing E. of FL, 96L in Mexico in 12 days by the CMC.

Is that like "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain"?

Is that big thing what is now TD 17 and that thing in Mexico 96L?

CHRISTY · #144 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:37 am

i cant type that lastest gfdl model really scared me because you never want to see something that powerful heading in our general direction! can this actually happen isnt the gfdl one of the best models out there??

#145 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:38 am

NHC SURFACE FORECAST:

x-y-no · #146 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:40 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I am more concerned about what may happen here

OK, now I'm a little more concerned. :eek:

Do you care to expand on that thought, Derek?

weatherwindow · #147 Postby **weatherwindow** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:49 am

yep, the gfdl got my attention......virtually over key west between 108 and 114 hour mark....... :eek:

.......key west 24.3-81.7........rich

apocalypt-flyer · #148 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:53 am

CHRISTY wrote:i cant type that lastest gfdl model really scared me because you never want to see something that powerful heading in our general direction! can this actually happen isnt the gfdl one of the best models out there??

Still 6-day Predictions about invests are never all too accurate. At the beginning of this month GFDL predicted an Invest, which was located a fair bit south-east of where TD17 is right now, to become a Cat.4 Cane.
Thunderstorm activity decreased a day later and the area of disturbed weather was pretty much gone ...

Conditions were differet there, obvious, however it shows pretty well, that 120 h predictions about Invests are never totally accurate.

Still I don't have a good feeling about either TD17 or this one.

Huckster · #149 Postby **Huckster** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:55 am

CHRISTY · #150 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:55 am

gfdl model can be off who knows? maybe its a little north of that into miami dade again i think we all especially in miamidade and homestead needs to pay attention closely! does anyone have the lastest model runs for invest 96L or any other info let me know thanks...

Jim Cantore · #151 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:57 am

that thing the CMC is showing is an absolute monster cat 4 at least

then again it called for a huge hurricane in the gulf on August 23 in the 144hr

we remember that one

#152 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:01 pm

I do not like what I see on the GFS at all, esp. this far out, if that ridge weakens we are in deep _____ .

#153 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:10 pm

Is 96L starting to wrap on the N side? IMO it looks like it's getting better organized.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

Nimbus · #154 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:18 pm

When is recon going out to check for a closed circulation?
Satellite imagery starting to show some vorticity near 21N 70W if those are low clouds.
The shear is stronger on the western side of the circulation but has been diminishing.
A track over Cuba then into Mexico is probably not realistic.

#155 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:20 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:that thing the CMC is showing is an absolute monster cat 4 at least

then again it called for a huge hurricane in the gulf on August 23 in the 144hr

we remember that one

Yes, I don't know why the other CMC thread got locked. :grr:

Anyway, I was just looking back and Derecho didn't go back far enough. Look at the CMC from 8/22. It had Katrina-to-be in the Central GOM and took it into Texas. It was too far south. Now it's taking 96L into Mexico. If it has the same southern bias, then TX may be under the gun this time.

hicksta · #156 Postby **hicksta** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:26 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Sure Np.

It shows a rather week system but remember this is one model out of many. It could very well be much stronger.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_060l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_066l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_072l.gif

Here is the link for the entire model run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_l.shtml

Its still a week away. The models will change alot

#157 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:27 pm

i dont see this going all the way to mexico or texas, my prediction is northern gulfcoast....hold me to it

#158 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:27 pm

ok well since there is no SAT then here is the PR radar loop.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... tjua.shtml

#159 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:28 pm

ivanhater wrote:i dont see this going all the way to mexico or texas, my prediction is northern gulfcoast....hold me to it

Alright. Ill hold ya to that big guy

<RICKY>

#160 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:33 pm

even if the goes 12 is down here is the last show of 96L... and it's lookin good....

Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

the lastest gfdl has really scared me! my god can it happen?

wow!

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