Concern of Strong Feeder Bands Impacting South Florida

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gatorcane
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Concern of Strong Feeder Bands Impacting South Florida

#1 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:39 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The 96L invest is showing a path similar to Katrina. :eek: Minimally, it looks to be a strong tropical wave passing through the FL Straits which will increase S. Florida easterly winds and rains chances, HOWEVER, the environment will be favorable for steady strengthening which could spell trouble. Let this thread discuss the South Florida threat.

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Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:34 pm, edited 19 times in total.
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#2 Postby x-y-no » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:52 am

I don't think TD17 is likely to pose any threat to Florida, even though I do think it has a good chance of going far enough left of the forecast track to impact the islands.

96L is another issue. The global guidance so far (except the Canadian) keep it well south of us, but even though it's still disorganized looking, I think it develops earlier than the globals think, and that results in a more rightward track.

The upper-air pattern appears to be getting more favorable, and there's really warm water in the central Bahamas, so I am getting concerned for our area.

(Derek dropped a little hint in the other thread too, and that disturbed me even more than my own thinking)
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#3 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:54 am

Yes 96L is concerning me the most. It looks to be another Katrina-like path into the Bahamas. Anytime a system is in the SE Bahamas with a ridge above it, it spells trouble. The water is so warm.
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#4 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:56 am

I agree x-y...when I saw that Derek is more concerned, my ears perked up. I am not buying the way south track that so many models are putting up right now. I think they're having difficulty with the system because it isn't officially organized as a depression or storm yet. 96L definitely has my attention right now.

I'm not quite as concerned about 95 yet. I don't think it'll go as far north and east as they have it currently, but I don't know that it's going to come this far over. We'll wait and see though....
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#5 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:56 am

At the least you will get much unneeded rain from this. The Central FL mets keep saying "just a wave" 20% chance of rain by Mon-Tues which I do not beilieve. It could at least be a TD maybe TS by early next week. All of FL will need to watch this.
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#6 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:56 am

boca_chris wrote:Yes 96L is concerning me the most. It looks to be another Katrina-like path into the Bahamas. Anytime a system is in the SE Bahamas with a ridge above it, it spells trouble. The water is so warm.


I agree with the both of you on the south florida threat from 96L and my thinking is that this could be at least as strong as Katrina....I hope I am wrong.
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#7 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:59 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:Yes 96L is concerning me the most. It looks to be another Katrina-like path into the Bahamas. Anytime a system is in the SE Bahamas with a ridge above it, it spells trouble. The water is so warm.


I agree with the both of you on the south florida threat from 96L and my thinking is that this could be at least as strong as Katrina....I hope I am wrong.


i hope your wrong too.

<RICKY>
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CHRISTY

#8 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:03 pm

i think it has southflorida written all over it as off right now! (what are the chances of this becomeing a hurricane and impacting southflorida wont all this have to happen quick cause its not that far away?)
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#9 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:06 pm

Is 96L starting to wrap on the north side?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:07 pm

i think it has southflorida written all over it as off right now! (what are the chances of this becomeing a hurricane and impacting southflorida wont all this have to happen quick cause its not that far away?)


Actually, on the contrary, the synoptic setup for 96L is looking to create a more powerful system in the Bahamas than Katrina when it was in the Bahamas. Lots of warm water, light shear, and westerly steering flow around the southern periphery of the mid Atlantic ridge spells trouble for S. Florida. Katrina had a hostile environment until it reached the Bahamas. 96L is still several hundred miles from the Bahamas with increasingly more auspicious conditions :eek:
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#11 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:10 pm

boca_chris wrote:
i think it has southflorida written all over it as off right now! (what are the chances of this becomeing a hurricane and impacting southflorida wont all this have to happen quick cause its not that far away?)


Actually, on the contrary, the synoptic setup for 96L is looking to create a more powerful system in the Bahamas than Katrina when it was in the Bahamas. Lots of warm water, light shear, and westerly steering flow around the southern periphery of the mid Atlantic ridge spells trouble for S. Florida. Katrina had a hostile environment until it reached the Bahamas. 96L is still several hundred miles from the Bahamas :eek:


Yes boca...unfortunately I agree with you....some will say we are overreacting because this is not named yet but if you look at the upper level environment in the next few days mixed with high SSt's and the distance to land, it has a great deal of potential to grow. I think south floridians at the least must be vigilant with this one. Nobody needs to panic of course but during the weekend make sure you come back and check the site for updates and comments.
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:13 pm

I am not panicking but my concern is growing by the minute. I am not liking this scenario. You watch, once it becomes a named system the South Florida media will be all over this one. Reminds me too much of Katrina.
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#13 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:15 pm

boca_chris wrote:I am not panicking but my concern is growing by the minute. I am not liking this scenario. You watch, once it becomes a named system the South Florida media will be all over this one. Reminds me too much of Katrina.


Yes I do believe you are right about the media.
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#14 Postby x-y-no » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:19 pm

boca_chris wrote:
i think it has southflorida written all over it as off right now! (what are the chances of this becomeing a hurricane and impacting southflorida wont all this have to happen quick cause its not that far away?)


Actually, on the contrary, the synoptic setup for 96L is looking to create a more powerful system in the Bahamas than Katrina when it was in the Bahamas. Lots of warm water, light shear, and westerly steering flow around the southern periphery of the mid Atlantic ridge spells trouble for S. Florida. Katrina had a hostile environment until it reached the Bahamas. 96L is still several hundred miles from the Bahamas with increasingly more auspicious conditions :eek:


Yes. Katrina had somewhat hostile conditions until just about a day before first landfall. If this system tracks far enough north to get away from interaction with Cuba, conditions look to be pretty good for development in the central Bahamas.
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#15 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:22 pm

Yes. Katrina had somewhat hostile conditions until just about a day before first landfall. If this system tracks far enough north to get away from interaction with Cuba, conditions look to be pretty good for development in the central Bahamas.


If the system strengthens more rapidly then I would expect a more WNW movement away from Cuba. I don't see it crossing Cuba at this time.
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#16 Postby THead » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:25 pm

boca_chris wrote:I am not panicking but my concern is growing by the minute. I am not liking this scenario. You watch, once it becomes a named system the South Florida media will be all over this one. Reminds me too much of Katrina.


Another thing is, it will most likely be intensifying as it approaches florida, or the keys, or wherever it goes, and we know that even a cat 1 thats intensifying at landfall is no picnic.
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#17 Postby sfwx » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:41 pm

bc,
You were dead on with Katrina before anyone ever gave it a thought so I'm listening. :D

Eric
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#18 Postby hicksta » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:42 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:I agree x-y...when I saw that Derek is more concerned, my ears perked up. I am not buying the way south track that so many models are putting up right now. I think they're having difficulty with the system because it isn't officially organized as a depression or storm yet. 96L definitely has my attention right now.

I'm not quite as concerned about 95 yet. I don't think it'll go as far north and east as they have it currently, but I don't know that it's going to come this far over. We'll wait and see though....



No offense but the GFDL is the best performing model this year...
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#19 Postby cajungal » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:46 pm

It would have to gain some latitude to affect south Florida. Almost all the models except like 1 or 2, keep it even further south than the keys. Most over Cuba. With the ridge still expected to hold strong, it looks more likely that it would be a MX/extreme South Texas storm. But, models will change once a low pressure center is clearly defined. So, I definitly would not let my guards down. I just hope this does not threaten the northern gulf coast down the road.
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#20 Postby hicksta » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:47 pm

cajungal wrote:It would have to gain some latitude to affect south Florida. Almost all the models except like 1 or 2, keep it even further south than the keys. Most over Cuba. With the ridge still expected to hold strong, it looks more likely that it would be a MX/extreme South Texas storm. But, models will change once a low pressure center is clearly defined. So, I definitly would not let my guards down. I just hope this does not threaten the northern gulf coast down the road.


How can you say that when the GFDL has it going NW near LA
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