Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Florida_TSR · #61 Postby **Florida_TSR** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:53 am

The models have done a very poor job with soon to be TS Philippe. Once the center is better established the NHC will shift west.

Jim Cantore · #62 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:55 am

I agree

the LBAR is the closest to what I think it will do

yes I did say the model I most agree with will be way off still

#63 Postby **EDR1222** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:00 pm

NHC discussion indicates a weak steering flow right now. Given that the Bermuda high has remained weak most of the season, maybe the models are onto something and hopefully this system will not get very far west.

Jim Cantore · #64 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:03 pm

hopefully

Hopefully it also doesnt turn into what the CMC calls for

#65 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:04 pm

THAT'S A FREAGIN BEAST!

Jim Cantore · #66 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:05 pm

No doubt about that

Florida_TSR · #67 Postby **Florida_TSR** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:07 pm

The potential is there for a major cane - no shear and very warm water ahead of it. The next few model runs should be very interesting!

#68 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:20 pm

Based on feedback from several users, we have made a few changes to our maps. The line is gone, since it's deceptive. We changed the color scheme to provide better contrast. We will be adding the traditional cone of error and a modified cone soon. The land fall zoom maps will also be modified to match this scheme.

Live data for TD #17 (AL172005)

Many thanks to those who use the thumbnails or save these images elsewhere for use in the forums as this helps us with bandwidth.

Jonathon-

Florida_TSR · #69 Postby **Florida_TSR** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:22 pm

Looks good.

#70 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:24 pm

Thank You!! The line of track is very deceptive especially for the general public who only looks at the line and not the entire margain of error.

JTD · #71 Postby **JTD** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:27 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:bvigal...

Please excuse my comment. It wasn't meant toward anyone in particular. It just stated what the pattern is favoring at this time, which is a NW track. I never mentioned NORTH away from the islands. If the scenario plays out this could be a major threat toward the NE islands. There is always the chance of something not following the pattern, but that chance is very small at this time.

Regarding the disclaimer...I read that it is used for people who post a forecast and makes it sound like it is official with predicted strength and location (with Lat/Long).

Hyperstorm, what are your thoughts on if there will be an eventual threat to CONUS? I know it's early but it's never too early to speculate. LOL.

nequad · #72 Postby **nequad** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:31 pm

665
WHXX04 KWBC 171728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 17L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.9 54.9 305./ 8.0
6 13.0 55.1 297./ 3.0
12 13.1 55.2 326./ .3
18 13.6 55.7 318./ 7.8
24 14.0 55.9 333./ 4.1
30 14.6 56.1 337./ 6.9
36 15.2 56.4 337./ 6.1
42 15.6 56.8 309./ 5.7
48 16.1 57.1 327./ 5.6
54 16.7 57.3 343./ 6.2
60 17.2 57.5 336./ 5.6
66 17.7 57.9 330./ 6.1
72 18.5 58.0 347./ 7.8
78 19.2 58.2 343./ 7.1
84 19.8 58.3 354./ 6.0
90 20.4 58.5 340./ 7.0
96 21.1 58.7 350./ 6.8
102 21.8 58.8 350./ 7.2
108 22.3 58.9 353./ 5.4
114 23.0 59.0 350./ 6.9
120 23.8 59.2 343./ 7.8
126 24.4 59.4 344./ 6.8

#73 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:39 pm

Anonymous · #74 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:25 pm

No surprise with the NHC 95 kt forecast...infact, I say up that to 105 kt atleast...IMO

#75 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:29 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:No surprise with the NHC 95 kt forecast...infact, I say up that to 105 kt atleast...IMO

What about their track? Do you agree with it?

oneness · #76 Postby **oneness** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:37 pm

jkt21787 · #77 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:41 pm

That image makes me grateful for GOES.

Good structure evident though, could be a TS. Recon is in, we'll know very soon for sure.

apocalypt-flyer · #78 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:42 pm

Phillippe after the Investigation I'd say ...

#79 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:43 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005091712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Three systems shown by the latest CMC. :roll:

wxmann_91 · #80 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:45 pm

cjrciadt wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005091712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Three systems shown by the latest CMC.

Thankfully 17 is weaker on this run, but ridge is stronger, less chance for fish. :eek:

Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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