Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Rainband

#181 Postby Rainband » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:52 pm

When ophelia was east of florida.
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hicksta
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#182 Postby hicksta » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:52 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Rainband wrote:GFDL had Ophelia hitting LA too.


are you sure? the graphic im looking at shows the run coming to a stop when it reaches 27N.

<RICKY>



hes talking about Ophelia
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#183 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:54 pm

hicksta wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Rainband wrote:GFDL had Ophelia hitting LA too.


are you sure? the graphic im looking at shows the run coming to a stop when it reaches 27N.

<RICKY>



hes talking about Ophelia


yeah i just realized that. my browser is playing tricks on me today so sorry for the confusions.

<RICKY>
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#184 Postby nequad » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:54 pm

GFDL was the first one to show td17 N now all are showing N. GFDL was the best one with Katrina. This season GFDL is the MVP


GFDL also showed Ophelia crossing FL for many days...then shifted to GA/SC
...which wasn't right either.

It is generally a very good model...but it is not always right.
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Derek Ortt

#185 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:54 pm

the model couldnt finish as we were focused on 17 for possible flights

however, it did form it very quickly and have it moving generally to the west
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Rainband

#186 Postby Rainband » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:54 pm

I just looked at the run and it apears to curve at the end of it. :eek:
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rainstorm

#187 Postby rainstorm » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:56 pm

im looking at 96L here, and it doesnt seem too impressive. am i wrong?
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#188 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:58 pm

rainstorm wrote:im looking at 96L here, and it doesnt seem too impressive. am i wrong?


its kinda hard to look at it right this moment since the satellites are down :D

<RICKY>
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#189 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:00 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
rainstorm wrote:im looking at 96L here, and it doesnt seem too impressive. am i wrong?


its kinda hard to look at it right this moment since the satellites are down :D

<RICKY>


i was about to say, please give me your link, lol
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#190 Postby x-y-no » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:04 pm

ivanhater wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
rainstorm wrote:im looking at 96L here, and it doesnt seem too impressive. am i wrong?


its kinda hard to look at it right this moment since the satellites are down :D

<RICKY>


i was about to say, please give me your link, lol


No kidding ... I'm suffering withdrawal here! :lol: :lol:
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#191 Postby bayoubebe » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:06 pm

Good Lord, I just hope N.O. doesn't get any more hurricanes OR rain or winds for a while.

Still cleaning up here, still trying to get SOME sense of normalcy.

Just a few days before Katrina hit us, it was supposed to hit the panhandle of florida and I asked a storm guy, "you don't think this thing is going to effect us do you?"

Horrific irony.

Oh looky, it's raining right now :(

Hopefully, it will be a short lived shower.
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rainstorm

#192 Postby rainstorm » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:09 pm

im sure derek has more info than us. is it impressive?
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CHRISTY

96L BIG THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA

#193 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:14 pm

i think 96L has south florida written all over it! my god can the gfdl be right? iam guessing once 96L becomes a td soon after florida will have to go under some kind of watch because most of the models show this becoming a hurricane heading in our general direction! opinions????
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Re: 96L BIG THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA

#194 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:17 pm

CHRISTY wrote:i think 96L has south florida written all over it! my god can the gfdl be right? iam guessing once 96L becomes a td soon after florida will have to go under some kind of watch because most of the models show this becoming a hurricane heading in our general direction! opinions????

It *could* be a FL threat, there is no doubting that given the models. They look very Katrina-esque at that stage. But it could also fish out or it could run straight into Cuba. Again, I'd rather see the system get classified first and then have the models run so it has a better handle.

The GFDL could always be right, but keep in mind it predicted Katrina to be a cat 3/4 for the Keys. It is very bullish with intensity. I ALWAYS take the GFDL with a grain of salt.
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#195 Postby hicksta » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:17 pm

Most show it near the keys then the gom..
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#196 Postby x-y-no » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:18 pm

Current SSTs in the path of 96L:

Image
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Re: 96L BIG THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA

#197 Postby Derecho » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:19 pm

CHRISTY wrote:i think 96L has south florida written all over it! my god can the gfdl be right?


The GFDL is generally useless for INVESTs and TDs, and weak TSes to some degree.

Basically all the INVEST and TD runs of the GFDL for Ophelia had it hitting New Orleans, and we of course know that didn't happen.
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#198 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:20 pm

ok folks, calm down...only 1 run...althought, i am a little concerned on that the ridge will be breaking down in days 5-7 over TX....our upper ridge will loose some and start shifting east....gonna be VERY interesting
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#199 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:20 pm

Nice little Jacuzzi there ...
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#200 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:27 pm

apocalypt-flyer wrote:Nice little Jacuzzi there ...


lol. that is scary though. it could allow 96L to really intensify quickly.

<RICKY>
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