Hurricane Philippe Recon Reports

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jkt21787
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#41 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:55 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:dont we kind of need a vortex message to know if there is a center?

You ask and you shall receive.
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#42 Postby tracyswfla » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:56 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:dont we kind of need a vortex message to know if there is a center?

You ask and you shall receive.



I was waiting for the Vortex too... all I can say is WOW!
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#43 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:57 pm

so that would be about 51Mph right? don't you times the kts by 1.5 to get the MPH?
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Derek Ortt

#44 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:57 pm

well..

there is the expected vortex and the position is well right of the forecast track. May lessen the threat to the islands
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#45 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:57 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:so that would be about 51Mph right? don't you times the kts by 1.5 to get the MPH?

1.15 actually
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#46 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:58 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:so that would be about 51Mph right? don't you times the kts by 1.5 to get the MPH?


NO. Multiply by 1.15. Barely TS force, if even that.
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#47 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:58 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 171857
AF300 0117A CYCLONE HDOB 18 KNHC
1846 1226N 05338W 00306 5011 215 023 236 220 024 00307 0000000000
1846. 1225N 05336W 00302 5011 215 023 236 220 024 00304 0000000000
1847 1224N 05335W 00307 5011 216 023 234 224 024 00308 0000000000
1847. 1223N 05334W 00304 5011 217 024 236 222 026 00306 0000000000
1848 1222N 05333W 00304 5010 216 022 236 224 023 00307 0000000000
1848. 1221N 05332W 00306 5009 217 022 234 226 022 00309 0000000000
1849 1220N 05331W 00302 5009 214 022 236 226 023 00306 0000000000
1849. 1220N 05330W 00307 5009 207 023 236 220 024 00310 0000000000
1850 1222N 05330W 00302 5009 198 021 236 224 022 00306 0000000000
1850. 1224N 05330W 00306 5010 197 021 234 222 021 00309 0000000000
1851 1225N 05330W 00304 5010 196 021 236 222 021 00306 0000000000
1851. 1227N 05330W 00306 5010 195 021 236 224 021 00308 0000000000
1852 1229N 05330W 00302 5010 198 023 236 222 023 00304 0000000000
1852. 1231N 05330W 00305 5010 202 022 236 224 022 00307 0000000000
1853 1232N 05330W 00306 5011 198 022 236 224 023 00308 0000000000
1853. 1234N 05330W 00304 5011 199 021 236 222 022 00306 0000000000
1854 1236N 05330W 00305 5011 196 021 234 224 022 00306 0000000000
1854. 1237N 05330W 00306 5011 198 021 232 230 021 00307 0000000000
1855 1239N 05330W 00303 5011 201 021 236 222 021 00304 0000000000
1855. 1241N 05330W 00305 5011 204 021 236 224 022 00306 0000000000
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#48 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:01 pm

URNT11 KNHC 171900
97779 18484 70124 53518 03100 22022 23239 /0010
42120
RMK AF300 0117A CYCLONE OB 03
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#49 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:25 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 171907
AF300 0117A CYCLONE HDOB 19 KNHC
1856 1243N 05330W 00303 5012 205 021 236 226 022 00304 0000000000
1856. 1244N 05330W 00306 5012 201 022 236 228 022 00307 0000000000
1857 1246N 05330W 00305 5012 200 023 236 222 025 00305 0000000000
1857. 1248N 05330W 00305 5012 199 024 240 220 024 00305 0000000000
1858 1250N 05330W 00305 5012 200 024 240 222 024 00306 0000000000
1858. 1251N 05330W 00304 5012 200 024 240 222 025 00304 0000000000
1859 1253N 05330W 00303 5013 199 026 240 218 026 00303 0000000000
1859. 1255N 05330W 00306 5013 197 026 240 220 026 00306 0000000000
1900 1257N 05330W 00303 5013 200 025 240 222 026 00303 0000000000
1900. 1258N 05330W 00305 5013 198 024 240 220 025 00305 0000000000
1901 1300N 05330W 00304 5014 195 025 240 218 026 00302 0000000000
1901. 1302N 05330W 00306 5014 195 024 240 218 025 00305 0000000000
1902 1304N 05330W 00304 5014 194 026 240 218 027 00303 0000000000
1902. 1305N 05330W 00303 5014 195 025 240 222 026 00301 0000000000
1903 1307N 05329W 00304 5014 196 027 240 216 027 00302 0000000000
1903. 1309N 05329W 00307 5014 195 026 240 222 026 00305 0000000000
1904 1311N 05329W 00302 5015 194 028 240 220 028 00299 0000000000
1904. 1312N 05329W 00306 5015 193 027 240 222 027 00304 0000000000
1905 1314N 05329W 00305 5015 192 029 240 220 029 00302 0000000000
1905. 1316N 05329W 00304 5016 190 028 240 224 029 00301 0000000000

SXXX50 KNHC 171917
AF300 0117A CYCLONE HDOB 20 KNHC
1906 1318N 05329W 00303 5016 191 029 240 226 029 00300 0000000000
1906. 1320N 05329W 00307 5016 191 027 240 224 028 00304 0000000000
1907 1321N 05329W 00302 5016 191 030 240 220 030 00299 0000000000
1907. 1323N 05329W 00305 5017 189 029 240 226 029 00301 0000000000
1908 1325N 05329W 00306 5017 186 029 240 224 030 00301 0000000000
1908. 1327N 05329W 00306 5017 187 029 242 220 030 00301 0000000000
1909 1329N 05329W 00305 5017 185 030 242 220 031 00300 0000000000
1909. 1330N 05329W 00308 5018 184 031 240 220 031 00303 0000000000
1910 1332N 05329W 00308 5018 183 029 242 218 031 00303 0000000000
1910. 1334N 05329W 00305 5018 182 031 244 216 031 00299 0000000000
1911 1336N 05329W 00307 5018 181 031 244 218 032 00302 0000000000
1911. 1338N 05329W 00305 5018 181 030 242 222 031 00299 0000000000
1912 1339N 05329W 00308 5018 180 030 240 222 031 00302 0000000000
1912. 1341N 05329W 00308 5018 181 029 240 224 029 00302 0000000000
1913 1343N 05329W 00305 5018 181 029 240 222 030 00299 0000000000
1913. 1345N 05329W 00308 5018 180 031 240 220 031 00303 0000000000
1914 1347N 05329W 00308 5018 179 030 240 222 031 00303 0000000000
1914. 1349N 05329W 00304 5018 180 029 240 222 031 00299 0000000000
1915 1350N 05329W 00308 5018 181 030 240 222 031 00303 0000000000
1915. 1352N 05329W 00305 5018 178 028 240 226 029 00300 0000000000
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#50 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:31 pm

When will they get into the northeast quad.
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#51 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:42 pm

They are in the NE quad right now.
SXXX50 KNHC 171927
AF300 0117A CYCLONE HDOB 21 KNHC
1916 1354N 05329W 00309 5019 179 031 240 224 032 00302 0000000000
1916. 1356N 05329W 00307 5019 181 033 240 218 033 00300 0000000000
1917 1358N 05329W 00305 5020 179 032 242 218 034 00297 0000000000
1917. 1359N 05329W 00309 5019 176 033 242 222 033 00303 0000000000
1918 1401N 05329W 00304 5019 175 031 240 228 032 00297 0000000000
1918. 1403N 05329W 00310 5019 172 032 240 228 033 00303 0000000000
1919 1405N 05329W 00305 5020 171 030 240 228 031 00298 0000000000
1919. 1407N 05329W 00308 5019 168 030 240 230 031 00301 0000000000
1920 1409N 05329W 00304 5020 165 030 240 230 030 00297 0000000000
1920. 1410N 05329W 00307 5020 163 030 236 234 031 00300 0000000000
1921 1412N 05329W 00309 5019 162 032 236 232 033 00302 0000000000
1921. 1414N 05329W 00306 5020 164 035 236 228 036 00299 0000000000
1922 1416N 05329W 00307 5018 163 033 236 232 036 00301 0000000000
1922. 1418N 05329W 00306 5018 159 030 236 236 030 00301 0000000100
1923 1419N 05329W 00306 5017 156 028 236 234 028 00302 0000000000
1923. 1421N 05329W 00308 5017 161 029 236 232 030 00303 0000000000
1924 1423N 05329W 00306 5017 159 028 236 232 029 00301 0000000000
1924. 1425N 05329W 00307 5016 154 027 236 234 027 00303 0000000000
1925 1426N 05329W 00308 5015 156 026 236 232 026 00305 0000000000
1925. 1428N 05329W 00307 5015 159 028 236 230 028 00305 0000000000

SXXX50 KNHC 171937
AF300 0117A CYCLONE HDOB 22 KNHC
1926 1430N 05329W 00306 5014 155 027 236 230 028 00304 0000000000
1926. 1432N 05329W 00307 5013 155 027 236 226 028 00307 0000000000
1927 1433N 05329W 00307 5011 153 027 236 226 028 00308 0000000000
1927. 1435N 05329W 00305 5011 154 027 236 222 027 00307 0000000000
1928 1437N 05329W 00309 5010 150 025 236 224 027 00312 0000000000
1928. 1439N 05329W 00304 5010 154 027 236 224 028 00306 0000000000
1929 1440N 05329W 00309 5010 160 028 236 218 029 00311 0000000000
1929. 1442N 05329W 00306 5011 164 029 236 220 030 00307 0000000000
1930 1444N 05329W 00302 5011 160 028 230 228 029 00304 0000000000
1930. 1446N 05329W 00308 5012 162 031 232 224 032 00309 0000000000
1931 1448N 05329W 00306 5012 163 032 230 228 033 00306 0000000000
1931. 1449N 05329W 00306 5012 160 031 228 226 032 00307 0000000000
1932 1451N 05329W 00307 5011 154 032 226 224 033 00308 0000000000
1932. 1453N 05329W 00308 5011 151 032 226 222 034 00310 0000000000
1933 1454N 05331W 00303 5010 151 031 220 220 033 00306 0000000000
1933. 1455N 05332W 00309 5010 153 029 216 216 031 00312 0000000000
1934 1455N 05334W 00306 5010 152 025 218 218 027 00309 0000000000
1934. 1456N 05335W 00307 5010 157 017 214 214 021 00310 0000000000
1935 1456N 05337W 00305 5011 168 019 208 208 021 00306 0000000000
1935. 1456N 05338W 00305 5013 171 026 206 206 028 00304 0000000000
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#52 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:55 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 171947
AF300 0117A CYCLONE HDOB 23 KNHC
1936 1455N 05340W 00310 5013 175 028 212 212 031 00310 0000000000
1936. 1455N 05341W 00303 5014 175 032 208 208 034 00301 0000000000
1937 1454N 05342W 00311 5014 157 024 208 208 026 00309 0000000000
1937. 1453N 05344W 00312 5015 131 018 210 210 024 00310 0000000000
1938 1452N 05344W 00296 5014 147 014 218 218 015 00294 0000000000
1938. 1451N 05345W 00312 5012 156 020 226 226 025 00312 0000000000
1939 1450N 05345W 00305 5014 166 024 230 228 025 00303 0000000000
1939. 1448N 05345W 00307 5014 164 023 230 228 024 00306 0000000000
1940 1447N 05346W 00311 5014 162 023 232 222 023 00310 0000000000
1940. 1446N 05346W 00303 5014 170 023 236 218 024 00301 0000000000
1941 1444N 05346W 00311 5013 163 022 238 218 023 00311 0000000000
1941. 1443N 05347W 00305 5014 159 024 240 220 024 00304 0000000000
1942 1442N 05347W 00308 5014 161 023 240 224 025 00306 0000000000
1942. 1440N 05348W 00305 5016 164 025 242 218 026 00302 0000000000
1943 1439N 05348W 00307 5016 163 024 240 222 026 00304 0000000000
1943. 1438N 05349W 00306 5015 159 022 242 224 023 00303 0000000000
1944 1437N 05350W 00308 5016 160 022 240 224 023 00305 0000000000
1944. 1436N 05351W 00305 5016 157 022 240 224 022 00302 0000000000
1945 1435N 05353W 00308 5016 155 023 240 222 024 00305 0000000000
1945. 1434N 05354W 00306 5017 161 023 240 222 024 00301 0000000000
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#53 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:56 pm

I'm not sure how much more they have left to do in the NE quad, but it appears we don't have Phillipe yet given the data available to this point.
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#54 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:01 pm

jkt21787 wrote:I'm not sure how much more they have left to do in the NE quad, but it appears we don't have Phillipe yet given the data available to this point.


It's very borderline at this point...I would have to say I agree based on the data so far. However, they might find stronger wind as they go through the NE part of the center.
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#55 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:01 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 171957
AF300 0117A CYCLONE HDOB 24 KNHC
1946 1434N 05356W 00308 5017 160 023 240 222 024 00304 0000000000
1946. 1433N 05357W 00307 5017 156 020 240 228 022 00302 0000000000
1947 1432N 05358W 00303 5018 163 022 226 222 027 00297 0000000000
1947. 1432N 05400W 00309 5018 161 026 238 222 026 00303 0000000000
1948 1431N 05401W 00307 5019 158 022 238 224 024 00301 0000000000
1948. 1431N 05403W 00306 5019 157 026 242 216 027 00300 0000000000
1949 1430N 05404W 00309 5019 154 025 240 222 027 00302 0000000000
1949. 1429N 05406W 00305 5020 150 022 240 228 023 00297 0000000000
1950 1429N 05407W 00307 5020 148 024 238 228 026 00299 0000000000
1950. 1428N 05409W 00308 5021 147 024 238 226 024 00299 0000000000
1951 1427N 05410W 00306 5021 149 024 240 224 025 00298 0000000000
1951. 1426N 05411W 00307 5020 154 023 240 224 024 00299 0000000000
1952 1426N 05413W 00307 5020 152 025 240 222 026 00300 0000000000
1952. 1425N 05414W 00306 5020 163 025 238 226 025 00299 0000000000
1953 1424N 05415W 00307 5020 157 025 236 222 026 00299 0000000000
1953. 1423N 05417W 00307 5020 154 026 236 222 026 00299 0000000000
1954 1423N 05418W 00305 5021 157 027 234 220 028 00296 0000000000
1954. 1422N 05420W 00308 5023 154 025 230 226 026 00298 0000000000
1955 1421N 05421W 00306 5023 158 023 226 226 024 00296 0000000000
1955. 1421N 05422W 00306 5024 160 022 232 224 022 00295 0000000000
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#56 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:02 pm

StormsAhead wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:I'm not sure how much more they have left to do in the NE quad, but it appears we don't have Phillipe yet given the data available to this point.


It's very borderline at this point...I would have to say I agree based on the data so far. However, they might find stronger wind as they go through the NE part of the center.

Yeah, Let's see what the last of the NE quad brings us first...
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#57 Postby Fego » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:02 pm

What about the TD17 movement?... no more west track?.. may be 305 NW?
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#58 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:07 pm

Fego wrote:What about the TD17 movement?... no more west track?.. may be 305 NW?


Looks like it's on the NHC track or even east of that.
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#59 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:08 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 172007
AF300 0117A CYCLONE HDOB 25 KNHC
1956 1420N 05424W 00309 5024 157 020 232 228 022 00297 0000000000
1956. 1420N 05425W 00305 5025 156 019 234 228 019 00293 0000000000
1957 1419N 05427W 00307 5025 152 020 234 224 021 00295 0000000000
1957. 1418N 05428W 00306 5026 155 021 230 230 022 00293 0000000000
1958 1418N 05430W 00305 5026 158 022 222 222 023 00292 0000000000
1958. 1417N 05431W 00309 5027 160 023 226 222 024 00295 0000000000
1959 1417N 05433W 00307 5028 156 022 234 224 023 00292 0000000000
1959. 1416N 05434W 00307 5028 153 019 234 230 020 00291 0000000000
2000 1415N 05436W 00304 5029 146 019 236 226 019 00287 0000000000
2000. 1415N 05437W 00308 5029 141 018 236 224 020 00291 0000000000
2001 1414N 05439W 00308 5030 142 018 238 222 019 00291 0000000000
2001. 1413N 05440W 00305 5030 142 018 240 226 018 00287 0000000000
2002 1412N 05441W 00307 5030 140 016 240 224 017 00289 0000000000
2002. 1411N 05442W 00309 5031 139 016 238 232 017 00290 0000000000
2003 1410N 05444W 00304 5031 142 015 238 228 015 00286 0000000000
2003. 1409N 05445W 00307 5031 139 015 240 228 015 00288 0000000000
2004 1408N 05446W 00308 5032 137 015 240 232 015 00288 0000000000
2004. 1407N 05447W 00305 5033 137 015 240 232 016 00285 0000000000
2005 1406N 05448W 00308 5033 138 015 238 234 015 00287 0000000000
2005. 1405N 05450W 00306 5034 139 015 236 234 016 00285 0000000000
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#60 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:12 pm

Fego wrote:What about the TD17 movement?... no more west track?.. may be 305 NW?


Models have been initialized at 310, which is an estimate. We'll have another vortex soon, then we can get the exact motion.
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