Concern of Strong Feeder Bands Impacting South Florida

[WeatherEmperor]

It would have to gain some latitude to affect south Florida. Almost all the models except like 1 or 2, keep it even further south than the keys. Most over Cuba. With the ridge still expected to hold strong, it looks more likely that it would be a MX/extreme South Texas storm. But, models will change once a low pressure center is clearly defined. So, I definitly would not let my guards down. I just hope this does not threaten the northern gulf coast down the road.

How can you say that when the GFDL has it going NW near LA

I agree with you. Perhaps cajungal was looking at the BAM models. I would put nearly all of my faith in the global models from this point on such as GFDL, UKMET, GFS, Canadian, European, etc.

<RICKY>

[cajungal]

It would have to gain some latitude to affect south Florida. Almost all the models except like 1 or 2, keep it even further south than the keys. Most over Cuba. With the ridge still expected to hold strong, it looks more likely that it would be a MX/extreme South Texas storm. But, models will change once a low pressure center is clearly defined. So, I definitly would not let my guards down. I just hope this does not threaten the northern gulf coast down the road.

How can you say that when the GFDL has it going NW near LA

I just saw that and yes, it did get my attention. but nothing has formed yet and the models will keep changing.

[skysummit]

It would have to gain some latitude to affect south Florida. Almost all the models except like 1 or 2, keep it even further south than the keys. Most over Cuba. With the ridge still expected to hold strong, it looks more likely that it would be a MX/extreme South Texas storm. But, models will change once a low pressure center is clearly defined. So, I definitly would not let my guards down. I just hope this does not threaten the northern gulf coast down the road.

How can you say that when the GFDL has it going NW near LA

I just saw that and yes, it did get my attention. but nothing has formed yet and the models will keep changing.

I'm with you cg. I'm almost happy to be at the end of model runs right now because you know they're going to change.

[jkt21787]

It would have to gain some latitude to affect south Florida. Almost all the models except like 1 or 2, keep it even further south than the keys. Most over Cuba. With the ridge still expected to hold strong, it looks more likely that it would be a MX/extreme South Texas storm. But, models will change once a low pressure center is clearly defined. So, I definitly would not let my guards down. I just hope this does not threaten the northern gulf coast down the road.

How can you say that when the GFDL has it going NW near LA

I just saw that and yes, it did get my attention. but nothing has formed yet and the models will keep changing.

I'm with you cg. I'm almost happy to be at the end of model runs right now because you know they're going to change.

Interestingly enough, people in LA were saying the same thing when the models change to target that area (with Katrina). Of course we know how that panned out...

BUT...the big difference here is that it is much further out and also the system is still undeveloped and disorganized, which always make me a little more skeptical. After all, look at how the models shifted once TD17 started getting organized late last night and early this morning.

[skysummit]

Yea...I'm just trying to find something positive to look at right now just in case all hell breaks loose.

[fci]

It would have to gain some latitude to affect south Florida. Almost all the models except like 1 or 2, keep it even further south than the keys. Most over Cuba. With the ridge still expected to hold strong, it looks more likely that it would be a MX/extreme South Texas storm. But, models will change once a low pressure center is clearly defined. So, I definitly would not let my guards down. I just hope this does not threaten the northern gulf coast down the road.

I can't recall the last time a system developed over the Bahamas and crossed Cuba.
Just don't see it, in spite of what the models may show this early on.

[gatorcane]

the mid Atlantic ridge is definitely strengthening. Winds in S. Florida are gusting to E at 15mph today and lower level cumulous are moving briskly from the Atlantic westward.

[HURAKAN]

It would have to gain some latitude to affect south Florida. Almost all the models except like 1 or 2, keep it even further south than the keys. Most over Cuba. With the ridge still expected to hold strong, it looks more likely that it would be a MX/extreme South Texas storm. But, models will change once a low pressure center is clearly defined. So, I definitly would not let my guards down. I just hope this does not threaten the northern gulf coast down the road.

I can't recall the last time a system developed over the Bahamas and crossed Cuba.
Just don't see it, in spite of what the models may show this early on.

[inotherwords]

I wouldn't mind that track!

[TS Zack]

This storm will be moving alot faster than Katrina. That is something to keep in mind!

[Patrick99]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The 96L invest is showing a path similar to Katrina. Minimally, it looks to be a strong tropical wave passing through the FL Straits which will increase S. Florida easterly winds and rains chances, HOWEVER, the environment will be favorable for steady strengthening which could spell trouble. Let this thread discuss the South Florida threat.



The GFDL sure likes the Upper Keys this year. As for being a South Florida threat.....why not? It's certainly possible, and as likely as any other option at this point, IMO. It's not exactly unheard of for storms to smack into us in September.

Don't kill me, because I KNOW such a track would likely be pretty destructive for someone - but purely for tracking purposes I'd like to see a Straits runner.

[Scorpion]

Yikes, could be a bad situation for the Keys or extreme S FL. Looks like if this pans out the double landfall theory plays out again, where if an area was hit by one storm earlier in the season it gets hit again by another later in the season.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Does anyone see any troughs or cold fronts entering the GOM by
3-4 days from today? Reason I ask is because I'd hate to see a NNW
curve like the Labor Day Storm did as it entered the GOM and rode
up the FL West Coast. I am not saying that this will become a Labor
Day cat 5 monster Type storm btw to preclude any flaming

[gatorcane]

it's not looking good for S. Florida or even the GOM down the road...I'm gone the rest of the day and will be back either later tonight or tomorrow. I'll catch up on the discussion when I get back

[fci]

It would have to gain some latitude to affect south Florida. Almost all the models except like 1 or 2, keep it even further south than the keys. Most over Cuba. With the ridge still expected to hold strong, it looks more likely that it would be a MX/extreme South Texas storm. But, models will change once a low pressure center is clearly defined. So, I definitly would not let my guards down. I just hope this does not threaten the northern gulf coast down the road.

I can't recall the last time a system developed over the Bahamas and crossed Cuba.
Just don't see it, in spite of what the models may show this early on.

Thank you for the one time in 30 years that it happened!

[cajungal]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The 96L invest is showing a path similar to Katrina. Minimally, it looks to be a strong tropical wave passing through the FL Straits which will increase S. Florida easterly winds and rains chances, HOWEVER, the environment will be favorable for steady strengthening which could spell trouble. Let this thread discuss the South Florida threat.

Now almost all the models you posted are showing a S Florida hit/then Northern Gulf Coast hit. Those models are pointing in my general direction. Maybe be it won't go to Mexico after all.

The GFDL sure likes the Upper Keys this year. As for being a South Florida threat.....why not? It's certainly possible, and as likely as any other option at this point, IMO. It's not exactly unheard of for storms to smack into us in September.

Don't kill me, because I KNOW such a track would likely be pretty destructive for someone - but purely for tracking purposes I'd like to see a Straits runner.

[SouthFloridawx]

18Z NAM

42 HOURS

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_l.shtml

[f5]

the second coming of Katrina?

[NastyCat4]

The thread starter is the panic button pusher that every invest, or TD is gonna hit Florida. Relax!! There is one thing I can absolutely promise to be 100% accurate--the models will flip around all over the place in the next week.