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Is this the invest near Puerto Rico now? or am I looking at an old map?
Texas Safe Again....Perfect Timing with Ridge
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
FYI
Corpus AFD
NOW THE BIG
QUESTION IS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE GULFMEX MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF
CORRESPONDS TO THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE WEAKENING. MODELS STILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM PRETTY FAR SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...
Corpus AFD
NOW THE BIG
QUESTION IS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE GULFMEX MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF
CORRESPONDS TO THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE WEAKENING. MODELS STILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM PRETTY FAR SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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deltadog03
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Macon, GA
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Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11166
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KatDaddy wrote:FYI
Corpus AFD
NOW THE BIG
QUESTION IS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE GULFMEX MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF
CORRESPONDS TO THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE WEAKENING. MODELS STILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM PRETTY FAR SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...
umm models do not keep it south of brownsville, gfdl has northern gulf coast, dumb comment if you ask me
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krysof
If there was one good thing I thought would come out of Katrina, it would be the elimination this so called immunity and complacency some people have just because there hasn't been a big storm in their area in many years.
Some people just think they are immune and their area won't be hit, unfortunately there are some in LA and NOLA who thought that, but we found out they weren't.
We all know New Orleans, Tampa, and Galveston were hit big at one time in past, but it was decades ago and very few if any alive today remember it. People have always said it would happen again to each of those cities, but much of the general population just shrugged it off. Now it HAS happened to one of those. That should show the other two, and ANY area on the United States coastline, whether you were last hit a month ago or 100 years ago, that you ARE vunerable, and there is ALWAYS the potential for the big one in your area, whether its a major metropolitan area or not.
Some people just think they are immune and their area won't be hit, unfortunately there are some in LA and NOLA who thought that, but we found out they weren't.
We all know New Orleans, Tampa, and Galveston were hit big at one time in past, but it was decades ago and very few if any alive today remember it. People have always said it would happen again to each of those cities, but much of the general population just shrugged it off. Now it HAS happened to one of those. That should show the other two, and ANY area on the United States coastline, whether you were last hit a month ago or 100 years ago, that you ARE vunerable, and there is ALWAYS the potential for the big one in your area, whether its a major metropolitan area or not.
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Houston-Galveston AFD
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ADVERTISE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THEN TRACK
THE SFC LOW W/SW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS VICINITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THIS MOVEMENT MAKES
SINCE...GIVEN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE STRONG
RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE NW GULF COAST. 33
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ADVERTISE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THEN TRACK
THE SFC LOW W/SW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS VICINITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THIS MOVEMENT MAKES
SINCE...GIVEN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE STRONG
RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE NW GULF COAST. 33
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
KatDaddy wrote:Houston-Galveston AFD
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ADVERTISE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THEN TRACK
THE SFC LOW W/SW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS VICINITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THIS MOVEMENT MAKES
SINCE...GIVEN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE STRONG
RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE NW GULF COAST. 33
Wow, relying on the NAM and GFS for a tropical system. That makes me discredit them...
Not to mention they spelled "sense" wrong!
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southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
jkt21787 wrote:If there was one good thing I thought would come out of Katrina, it would be the elimination this so called immunity and complacency some people have just because there hasn't been a big storm in their area in many years.
Some people just think they are immune and their area won't be hit, unfortunately there are some in LA and NOLA who thought that, but we found out they weren't.
We all know New Orleans, Tampa, and Galveston were hit big at one time in past, but it was decades ago and very few if any alive today remember it. People have always said it would happen again to each of those cities, but much of the general population just shrugged it off. Now it HAS happened to one of those. That should show the other two, and ANY area on the United States coastline, whether you were last hit a month ago or 100 years ago, that you ARE vunerable, and there is ALWAYS the potential for the big one in your area, whether its a major metropolitan area or not.
Keep in mind there is a difference in people who don't think their area will be hit and don't pay attention or prepare and those who don't think their area will be hit, but do pay attention and prepare, just in case. I tend to believe that the ridge will keep Southeast Texas safe, but of course I'm watching to see if that changes and will take action if necessary. I suspect KatDaddy is the same way.
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southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
FWIW, from the Lake Charles NWS office afternoon update which includes extreme Southeast Texas in their forecast area (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Sabine Pass) as well as SW Louisiana.
WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PLACED BY THE NHC
250 MILES EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT/TRACK
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT AT THIS TIME. HPC MAINTAINING EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF...EVOLVING INTO A LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER COASTAL
WATERS FOR MID-WEEK.
WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PLACED BY THE NHC
250 MILES EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT/TRACK
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT AT THIS TIME. HPC MAINTAINING EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF...EVOLVING INTO A LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER COASTAL
WATERS FOR MID-WEEK.
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Yeppers.
Interesting to note some of the models pointing more N in the GOM.
Interesting to note some of the models pointing more N in the GOM.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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corpusbreeze
- Category 1
- Posts: 386
- Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2004 3:57 pm
deltadog03 wrote:i would say im surprised by some of these comments...but, im not...Don't EVER think that we are immune...the ridge is GOING to weaken...and its all about timing...corpus NWS said it BEST.....STOP THINKING WE ARE IMMUNE!!!!!
So agree with you. Many people in a local forum are writing this season off based on the NWS suggesting the ridge will hold 5-7 days from now. The ridge will weaken just when is the question.
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
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- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Portastorm wrote:Given how thinly stretched our state disaster resources are right now in dealing with Katrina, I shudder to think of the consequences should a strong cyclone threaten Texas.
good point but remember Texas doesnt have a major city sitting below sea level on the coast. Not to downplay it by no means but the effects would not be as severe as Kat.
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wxmann_91
- Category 5
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- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
ROCK wrote:Portastorm wrote:Given how thinly stretched our state disaster resources are right now in dealing with Katrina, I shudder to think of the consequences should a strong cyclone threaten Texas.
good point but remember Texas doesnt have a major city sitting below sea level on the coast. Not to downplay it by no means but the effects would not be as severe as Kat.
Perhaps, but the Galveston/Houston area is one of the biggest coastal metropolitan areas in the United States, and Galveston Bay acts to funnel in the surge.
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Rainband
Good reason for Texas to watch
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE TROP WAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. NAM
AND GFS STILL HAVING THEIR DIFFERENCES..BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE
GENERALLY CLOSER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. GENERAL
FEELING IS THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NORTHERN GULF...AND NORTHERN FL ONCE THE SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY PASSING OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST MOVES FARTHER EAST. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION THRU SUNDAY. GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE TROP WAVE WILL GET TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND
WILL QUICKLY MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA ON MONDAY AS A
WEAK LOW. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE AND
TAKES IT THRU THE FL STRAITS AS A STRONGER CLOSED SFC LOW ON TUE AS
IT BEGINS TO FEEL A TUG NORTH FROM A SHORT WAVE PASSING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND WEAKENING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. BOTH SEEM LIKE
REASONABLE SOLUTIONS...BUT ATTM PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NW OF THE WAVE.
IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECTING HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THRU SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA AND THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA. PW`S
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ONLY MARGINALLY...WITH SFC DWPTS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY. WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING...SEA BREEZE AND MESO
BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND AS SUCH
PREFER LOW MAV POPS THRU AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE A
SILENT 10 POP FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE MOISTURE INCREASE. BY
MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG
RIDGE...WARM AND RELATIVELY STABLE SOUNDING AND LACK OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HIGH TEMPS SUN AND MON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM.
GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE L-M 90S AND LOWS IN THE L-M 70S.
FINALLY...THE AIR STAG ADV FOR HILLSBOROUGH CO CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS ADV EARLY AS DEEP
LAYER NE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE AIR SOME.
&&
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING TROPICAL WAVE/LOW CENTER SOUTH OF
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER...
WEAKER AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE NAM.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY...BUT STILL ISOLATED AT BEST NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY AS A
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...06Z GFS RUN SHOWED A RETURN OF DRY
AIR INTO ALL BUT THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE A PEEK AT THE 12Z RUN
SUGGESTS MORE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH LOW END
SCATTERED POPS RETURNING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.MARINE...FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THRU SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...NE WINDS AND THE SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE TROP WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
ESE. BY TUESDAY WE MAY NEED CAUTION HEADLINES OR POSSIBLY EVEN SCA
OFFSHORE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS WAVE.
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THE WAVE MOVE BY TO OUR WEST AND THE PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH SFC DWPTS SLOWLY INCREASING...RH`S SHOULD
INCREASE ABOVE THE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES WE`VE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS.
NO SIGNIF FIRE WX PROBLEMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 93 76 92 / 00 10 00 10
FMY 75 93 74 92 / 00 10 00 20
GIF 74 95 74 93 / 00 10 00 10
SRQ 74 92 74 90 / 00 10 00 10
BKV 67 94 70 92 / 00 10 00 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....EJ
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE TROP WAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. NAM
AND GFS STILL HAVING THEIR DIFFERENCES..BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE
GENERALLY CLOSER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. GENERAL
FEELING IS THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NORTHERN GULF...AND NORTHERN FL ONCE THE SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY PASSING OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST MOVES FARTHER EAST. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION THRU SUNDAY. GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE TROP WAVE WILL GET TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND
WILL QUICKLY MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA ON MONDAY AS A
WEAK LOW. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE AND
TAKES IT THRU THE FL STRAITS AS A STRONGER CLOSED SFC LOW ON TUE AS
IT BEGINS TO FEEL A TUG NORTH FROM A SHORT WAVE PASSING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND WEAKENING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. BOTH SEEM LIKE
REASONABLE SOLUTIONS...BUT ATTM PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NW OF THE WAVE.
IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECTING HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THRU SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA AND THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA. PW`S
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ONLY MARGINALLY...WITH SFC DWPTS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY. WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING...SEA BREEZE AND MESO
BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND AS SUCH
PREFER LOW MAV POPS THRU AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE A
SILENT 10 POP FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE MOISTURE INCREASE. BY
MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG
RIDGE...WARM AND RELATIVELY STABLE SOUNDING AND LACK OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HIGH TEMPS SUN AND MON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM.
GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE L-M 90S AND LOWS IN THE L-M 70S.
FINALLY...THE AIR STAG ADV FOR HILLSBOROUGH CO CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS ADV EARLY AS DEEP
LAYER NE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE AIR SOME.
&&
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING TROPICAL WAVE/LOW CENTER SOUTH OF
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER...
WEAKER AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE NAM.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY...BUT STILL ISOLATED AT BEST NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY AS A
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...06Z GFS RUN SHOWED A RETURN OF DRY
AIR INTO ALL BUT THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE A PEEK AT THE 12Z RUN
SUGGESTS MORE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH LOW END
SCATTERED POPS RETURNING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.MARINE...FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THRU SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...NE WINDS AND THE SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE TROP WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
ESE. BY TUESDAY WE MAY NEED CAUTION HEADLINES OR POSSIBLY EVEN SCA
OFFSHORE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS WAVE.
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THE WAVE MOVE BY TO OUR WEST AND THE PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH SFC DWPTS SLOWLY INCREASING...RH`S SHOULD
INCREASE ABOVE THE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES WE`VE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS.
NO SIGNIF FIRE WX PROBLEMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 93 76 92 / 00 10 00 10
FMY 75 93 74 92 / 00 10 00 20
GIF 74 95 74 93 / 00 10 00 10
SRQ 74 92 74 90 / 00 10 00 10
BKV 67 94 70 92 / 00 10 00 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....EJ
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