Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#101 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:11 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Based on the latest models, fish looks a lot more likely, even the LBAR has shifted right.

nequad · #102 Postby **nequad** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:14 pm

144 HR NOGAPS. In my estimation the NOGAPS is close to reality here. It shows a NW motion the first five days with a bend to the W or WNW
by day 6.

Astro_man92 · #103 Postby **Astro_man92** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:18 pm

That is a cool looking model!!

#104 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:19 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005091712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Yes from NW to almost due W motion strong possibility.

truballer#1 · #105 Postby **truballer#1** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:25 pm

also track to NO

jkt21787 · #106 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:26 pm

Important to note that the 130 kts you see is a 950 mb wind, NOT what the surface wind would be. Notice their disclaimer of it being 15 to 25% less, so reducing by 20%, it would be 104 kts, or ~120 mph.

Again, it did the same thing with the Katrina in that region. A grain of salt...

Scorpion · #107 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:26 pm

That is 96L.

jkt21787 · #108 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:30 pm

Scorpion wrote:That is 96L.

that is 96L, which means the above is in the WRONG THREAD...

Again, the above maps are not for TD 17, they are for invest 96L.

Mods/Truballer should move or delete those posts in order to prevent confusion...

#109 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:32 pm

Truballer#3 I will deleite the GFDL graphic as it is about 96L.Will post it at the 96L thread.

truballer#1 · #110 Postby **truballer#1** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:36 pm

srry bout dat, thought I was in the invest96l thread

wxmann_91 · #111 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:39 pm

truballer#1 wrote:srry bout dat, thought I was in the invest96l thread

It's okay, it happens to everyone :wink:

.

JTD · #112 Postby **JTD** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:19 pm

No one thought that Irene could be a fish either (even Stewart couldn't see how it could go NE with the strong high in place)- turns out there was a weakness and it went off to sea. Models consistently showing fish here so I'm feeling much better about T.D. 17 not being a threat.

If more models start showing what the NOGAPS is saying, then I might change my mind but for now I see no reason why this isn't going to be a fish.

Plus there's this from the NHC 5 PM:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8. STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...
WITH PERHAPS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER THREE DAYS TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.

Sounds like a fish to me

The one possibility I can see is an Isabel like track where it goes NW for days and then turns wnw and W.

krysof · #113 Postby **krysof** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:22 pm

Unless I see it turning to the east, I will not assume anything.

#114 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:22 pm

TRYING VERY HARD!

#115 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:24 pm

Wow...it looks like it's trying to get its CDO together. If that can persist, I'm sure we'll have a TS late tonight or tomorrow morning.

MiamiensisWx · #116 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:25 pm

I think for now that TD 17 will miss Florida but possibly pose a threat to the Carolinas, which I think may be the most likely area it may make landfall in the U.S. if it does. Also, historical climatology supports that storms that form in that general area and move north of the northern Lesser Antilles around a ridge weakness make landfall in the Carolinas (e.g., a good example is Isabel from 2003, which moved through a ridge weakness north of the Lesser Antilles and made landfall in North Carolina). Still, however, anything can happen, and everyone in the southeast U.S. may need to track TD 17. For now, however, the Carolinas may be most vulnerable.

#117 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:30 pm

Ok folks.Those who are talking about 96L you are at the wrong thread.Go to the 96L thread and talk about it there but let's leave this TD17 thread only for discussions about the depression.

#118 Postby **curtadams** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:31 pm

It's heading almost north now - looks like it's trying to eat the storms to its northeast. After that it interacts with the bottom of a big trough. Largely northward movement, as in the models, seems likely to me.

milankovitch · #119 Postby **milankovitch** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:34 pm

skysummit wrote:Wow...it looks like it's trying to get its CDO together. If that can persist, I'm sure we'll have a TS late tonight or tomorrow morning.

It's borderline right now, I would be quite surprised if it's not a tropical storm in time for the 11pm advisory.

#120 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:55 pm

ALL EYES LOCALLY ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN...LOCATED NEAR 13.8 NORTH AND 55.2 WEST AT 500
PM. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOK BETTER ON SATELLITE DATA
AND TPC/NHC FEELS THAT IT SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
BE EXPECTED AND IS FORECAST BY TPC/NHC. GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THE TRACK WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT TRICKY AND IS SUBJECT TO
SOME ADJUSTMENTS. BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST...
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...APPROACHING THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
MONDAY AND THEN PASSING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS EARLY STAGE FORECAST IS CERTAINLY NOT ETCHED IN STONE
AND THEREFORE...ALL LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

The above from the NWS San Juan.Fellow members who are in the Northeastern caribbean islands please dont let your guard down as we know our history of storms and canes in past years that many things occur with the tracks.Until it clears 18.7n the latitud of the most northern island in the NE caribbean we have to continue to watch it.

Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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