Interesting Poll: Will Philippe Be a Carolina Threat?

MiamiensisWx · #1 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:51 pm

Who thinks that Philippe will be an eventual threat to the Carolinas possibly? Things are still very uncertain, but I think people all along the southeast U.S. but ESPECIALLY in the Carolinas need to monitor Philippe. Why? Historical climatology supports that, out of storms that have formed in the area of Philippe and have moved north of the northern Lesser Antilles through a ridge weakness and have made landfall, many of those landfalling storms have made landfall in or affected the Carolinas (e.g., a good example of such a storm is Isabel from 2003).

What are your thoughts? Comments, opinions, and poll entries are welcome.

#2 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:54 pm

nope.

<RICKY>

krysof · #3 Postby **krysof** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:57 pm

doesn't look like it right now

shaggy · #4 Postby **shaggy** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:59 pm

If it is a threat to anyone then we are most likely at the top of the list if it goes back west or northwest as we stick out and seems to catch storms that run that track. I will keep a eye on it but as they say only time will tell.

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:00 pm

krysof · #6 Postby **krysof** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:01 pm

Could I have a moderator put up another poll saying if it will be a fish or not?

wxmann_91 · #7 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:02 pm

I've no idea :roll:

.

NastyCat4 · #8 Postby **NastyCat4** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:03 pm

Most likely out to sea.

MiamiensisWx · #9 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:02 pm

nequad · #10 Postby **nequad** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:11 pm

Well it's an interesting question. If it's a threat to the mainland US then North Carolina would be at the top of the list. Storms this time of year that come from the deep tropics tend to recurve north of the Islands. Some recurve near 65W...some near 70W... and some near 75W.

For now it's way too early to evaluate whether it's a fish or a threat. However....the trend in global model guidance is for a restrengthening of the ridge after day 5...which would indicate at least a possible movement toward
the mainland U.S. late next week.

My guess is we won't really know for another 2-3 days...after that we should have a good handle on whether or not the system will approach the U.S. coast.

Anyone who thinks they know one way or the other right now is only fooling themselves.

MiamiensisWx · #11 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:13 pm

Good points, nequad. I was just pointing out the POSSIBLE threat scenario to the Carolinas (especially North Carolina)... it is still too early to decide on a U.S. or Carolina threat or not.

milankovitch · #12 Postby **milankovitch** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:18 pm

I think it's to early to say if TD 17 is a Carolina threat but I sure think it's a threat to the east coast. As of now I thinking the ridge is going to be to strong a la 12Z UKMET and the storm recurves to the west. However, I'm waiting for what the OZ runs got to say. We really won't have a good idea for a few days.

MiamiensisWx · #13 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:58 pm

*BUMP*

Hurricaneman · #14 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:13 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Theres a possibility, but Im thinking of a track similar to Hortense in 1996

oneness · #15 Postby **oneness** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:28 am

All just subjective opinion but from the model loops I’ve just looked at, several showing TS17 punching N then NNE into a strengthening E-W ridge, which I think is quite unlikely. Others show it NW then slowing toward the ridge, and beginning a gradual curve west. I think this is much more likely. i.e. a curve westwards the further north it goes. Perhaps getting as far north as SC/NC latitudes, or else crossing G or north FL, and maintaining a generally westerly heading for a couple of days, either over land or across northern GOM. Headed west either way.

Sorry, but that’s just what it’s looking like to me, at this point.

The turn west should slow the forward speed, so lots more time for things to change with regard to the blocking E-W ridge, and that will have a big influence on where it makes landfall, but does not seem likely to prevent a landfall occurring (I think).

2 cents

MiamiensisWx · #16 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:27 pm

*BUMP*

As time goes by and as the projected path for Philippe may possibly become more certain, this may come in handy and/or be interesting.

Interesting Poll: Will Philippe Be a Carolina Threat?

Will TD 17 Be a Carolina Threat?

Interesting Poll: Will Philippe Be a Carolina Threat?

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