Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FORECASTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY...MODELS
INDICATING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...HOWEVER MODELS
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POPS TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SMALL POPS AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY PRETTY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK WHEN CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND READINGS SHOULD MODERATE A
LITTLE.

more sensible discussion than our HOU /GAL AFD. Where is that person who said HOU NWS was all about hype??

lol, i cant believe some of the texas afd say models have it going south of brownsville! last time i checked models were all over the gulf

[TS Zack]

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO MEXICO. THIS IS BASED ON THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING...WHICH STILL
HAS TO COME TO PASS. ONE PROBLEM IS THAT IF THE SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP
AND TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY ONCE ENTERING THE GULF...LIKE
THE GFDL SUGGESTS...THEN CHANGES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST. AS IT STANDS NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND GEM LONG RANGE FORECASTS MOVING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD WITH
DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE REGION.

New Orleans NWS/Mobile NWS

[skysummit]

Well Zack, at least they're not fully ignoring it. I wonder what Breck will say in a little while. If anyone catches it, please post his comments.....or Channel 4.

[southerngale]

Until it is a named system the models will have trouble with it. Look at where Ophelia was headed before it was named. The best place to be is the first place the models point to. IMHO

All over the GOM? lol

[Rainband]

Until it is a named system the models will have trouble with it. Look at where Ophelia was headed before it was named. The best place to be is the first place the models point to. IMHO

All over the GOM? lol

Maybe it will go get some margaritas

[Recurve]

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
330 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.FORECASTS...
A TROPICAL WAVE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO REMAINS THE CONCERN FOR THE
LATEST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND AND MORESO THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE COMING WEEK. NAM AND GFS ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE
GENERAL MOTION OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE NAM CLOSES OFF A CIRCULATION QUICKER WHILE THE GFS
TAKES UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY TO BECOME MORE DEFINED. AND THE GFS IS
THEN QUICKER WITH AN EVENTUAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE STRAITS
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM IS STRONGER AND LAGS
BEHIND. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
AND THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA AND SUPPORTS THIS GENERAL MOTION. PREFER TO STICK CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE PRESENT
EXPANSION OF THAT RIDGING. EITHER WAY...EXPECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER TO
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING IN THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY...WITH
HIGHER CHANCE POPS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS OFF INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL THEN...WE SHOULD SEE A
LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN AS A DRIER SLUG OF AIR PRECEEDS THE ARRIVAL OF
MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE. PLAN TO KEEP ROUGHLY 30 POPS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM ARE DEPICTING DEEP VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING THE
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE OUR FLOW VEERS
TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. COULDN'T ARGUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE TIMES...BUT ON THIS ISSUANCE WILL STICK
WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR THOSE PERIODS...AND INSERT A BREEZY DESCRIPTOR
FOR THE WINDS. BEYOND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
WILL BE ALINGED MAINLY TO THE E/W AND TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING MORE
CLIMO RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN. WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17 IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND SHOULD BE
STRENGTHENING...IF THE BULK OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS PAN OUT.

&&

[cycloneye]

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 145 NM E OF GRAND TURK NEAR
22N68.5W MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN IMPROVING AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF TSTMS HAS BEEN A LITTLE RAGGED
AND DISORGANIZED. THE LOW SITS ABOUT 400 NM E OF AN UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W. TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS FROM JUST
N OF HISPANIOLA TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION CAN PERSIST AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE LOW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS OVER
THE NEXT 48-72 HRS AND IT IS ADVISED THAT ALL INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA REMAIN ABREAST OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS. REGARDLESS OFF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS WWD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...S FLORIDA...AND CUBA
THROUGH MID-WEEK.


8:00 PM Discussion from NHC.

[nequad]

18Z GFDL. Much further west with this run...and more consistent with all other available guidance.


518
WHXX04 KWBC 172329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.3 68.8 285./12.0
6 21.9 69.9 299./11.9
12 22.5 71.2 295./13.3
18 22.6 72.6 273./13.8
24 22.7 73.5 273./ 7.7
30 23.0 74.2 296./ 7.1
36 23.3 75.1 286./ 9.2
42 23.4 76.3 276./11.5
48 23.4 77.2 272./ 8.3
54 23.8 78.2 290./ 9.6
60 24.0 79.5 278./11.6
66 24.1 80.8 278./11.9
72 24.3 82.0 277./11.3
78 24.4 83.2 275./11.2
84 24.4 84.5 269./11.6
90 24.4 85.7 271./10.9
96 24.5 86.8 274./ 9.9
102 24.6 87.8 277./ 8.8
108 24.8 88.8 280./ 9.1
114 25.0 89.7 286./ 8.5
120 25.3 90.5 290./ 8.5
126 25.7 91.2 299./ 7.3

[cycloneye]

17/2345 UTC 22.4N 69.3W T1.0/1.0 96 -- Atlantic Ocean

[cjrciadt]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005091718-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Newest run of the GFDL 1800

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050918 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050918 0000 050918 1200 050919 0000 050919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 69.2W 22.6N 71.0W 23.3N 72.8W 23.9N 74.7W
BAMM 21.8N 69.2W 22.5N 71.1W 23.1N 72.8W 23.7N 74.6W
A98E 21.8N 69.2W 22.5N 71.1W 23.2N 72.9W 23.8N 74.9W
LBAR 21.8N 69.2W 22.8N 71.0W 23.5N 72.4W 24.4N 73.5W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050920 0000 050921 0000 050922 0000 050923 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.4N 76.7W 25.3N 80.7W 26.5N 83.9W 27.5N 86.1W
BAMM 24.2N 76.6W 25.1N 81.0W 26.2N 85.1W 27.3N 89.3W
A98E 24.4N 77.1W 25.2N 81.7W 26.0N 85.9W 26.1N 90.2W
LBAR 25.1N 74.5W 25.8N 75.7W 26.7N 76.4W 28.5N 76.8W
SHIP 54KTS 67KTS 72KTS 72KTS
DSHP 54KTS 67KTS 72KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 69.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.2N LONM12 = 67.2W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 64.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z Model Guidance

[weatherwindow]

just a note for the casual observer......gfdl ....72 hours 24.3N-82.0W.... key west 24.3-81.7....a bit close i should think....don't forget about the small bits of land inhabited by 29,367 souls well east and south of the northern gulf coast....... .....rich

[vaffie]

18Z GFDL. Much further west with this run...and more consistent with all other available guidance.

Concerning model run for Houston, the way it just begins that curve at the end.--heading in the general direction of SE Texas/SW Louisiana. Rita--yes, I know your name--go away.

[CHRISTY]

wow this seems to be a southflorida storm!how strong can this get ? i think tomorrow will be a critical day to watch!

[Nimbus]

If that ULL that is to west of 96L continues to sag to the southwest we might see a track through the straits instead of a south Florida hit.

Second landfall is still up in the air. A retrograding ridge scenario could hold the storm south longer I suppose.

Rather a bleak picture late next week.

[CHRISTY]

[Windy]

BTW, here is the graphical plot again for those (like me) who hate coords and love pretty maps...

[fci]

BTW, here is the graphical plot again for those (like me) who hate coords and love pretty maps...

I'm with the UKMET!!!!
A drunken invest.

[JTD]

Wow, those models are just scary.

[skysummit]

What ever rotation that may be there right now looks to be moving NW to me.