Hurricane Philippe Recon Reports

[Brent]

I know this isn't the right place but since it is for Recon does any one know when the Recon for TD18 starts?

Tomorrow(Sunday) Afternoon...

[JamesFromMaine2]

I know this isn't the right place but since it is for Recon does any one know when the Recon for TD18 starts?

Tomorrow(Sunday) Afternoon...

ok thanks

[JamesFromMaine2]

414
URNT11 KNHC 180423
97779 04124 10168 6280/ 70100 99005 64/// /5761
RMK AF300 0118A CYCLONE OB 01
DIVERTED FROM AF300 0217A FILIPPE MISSION.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

DIVERTED FROM AF300 0217A FILIPPE MISSION.


What is this?

[JamesFromMaine2]

I have no clue I was hoping someone could tell me! I was wondering if maybe its being sent to TD 18 instead?

[curtadams]

Phillipe won't bother anybody but ships for a couple of days at least. TD18 could be a hurricane in S Florida in two days. They need to learn about TD18 pronto. On top of that, it's way easier to investigate because it's hundreds of miles closer.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Phillipe won't bother anybody but ships for a couple of days at least. TD18 could be a hurricane in S Florida in two days. They need to learn about TD18 pronto. On top of that, it's way easier to investigate because it's hundreds of miles closer.

The NHC needs to keep on top of both systems they can't just forget about Philippe! If they do forget about it then it could pop up out of no where and get every one off guard!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The models take Philippe out to sea. He will be a big fishy...18 could be a big hurricane for Florida.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Don't always pay attention to the models!

Read this from the 11pm discussion: "THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 335/4. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THIS REGION OF THE ATLANTIC...AND PHILIPPE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THAT MAY RESULT IN A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...BUT IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST MOTION AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS."

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT11 KNHC 180502
97779 04584 10186 6660/ 70100 99005 6578/ /5761
RMK AF300 0118A CYCLONE OB 02

Looks like its going to 18...

[Scorpion]

The models take Philippe out to sea. He will be a big fishy...18 could be a big hurricane for Florida.

Don't assume this far out

[JamesFromMaine2]

I think thats TD 18 recon not Philippe Recon!

[curtadams]

The NHC needs to keep on top of both systems they can't just forget about Philippe! If they do forget about it then it could pop up out of no where and get every one off guard!

They have the satellites. We know where Philippe is and approximately how strong he is without airplanes. TD18 is a far more immediate threat, and since rapid intensification is feared, we need internal details.

[MWatkins]

000
URNT11 KNHC 180502
97779 04584 10186 6660/ 70100 99005 6578/ /5761
RMK AF300 0118A CYCLONE OB 02

Looks like its going to 18...

Yes...the crew has been diverted...and whoever made that call is 100000% right.

MW

[Brent]

The NHC needs to keep on top of both systems they can't just forget about Philippe! If they do forget about it then it could pop up out of no where and get every one off guard!

They have the satellites. We know where Philippe is and approximately how strong he is without airplanes. TD18 is a far more immediate threat, and since rapid intensification is feared, we need internal details.

True.

I'm sure if Phillippe were barrelling towards the Lesser Antilles and had a similar forecast they wouldn't have diverted.

[StormsAhead]

Philippe flight has taken off...

SXXX50 KNHC 182230
AF309 0317A PHILIPPE HDOB 02 KNHC
2219 1742N 06446W 00290 5011 055 007 262 220 009 00288 0000000000
2219. 1742N 06445W 00542 0007 078 007 240 198 007 00560 0000000000
2220 1742N 06443W 00911 0040 056 006 218 146 006 00963 0000000000
2220. 1742N 06441W 01270 0062 038 005 190 152 005 01354 0000000000
2221 1742N 06440W 01572 0079 029 004 168 136 005 01674 0000000000
2221. 1741N 06438W 01842 0096 012 003 166 086 004 01960 0000000000
2222 1741N 06436W 02094 0111 341 003 156 038 004 02229 0000000000
2222. 1741N 06435W 02335 0116 321 009 146 010 011 02487 0000000000
2223 1741N 06433W 02586 0133 300 009 132 012 010 02756 0000000000
2223. 1741N 06431W 02865 0151 294 009 110 000 011 03053 0000000000
2224 1741N 06429W 03106 0169 257 002 092 039 004 03312 0000000000
2224. 1741N 06427W 03346 0187 160 005 076 067 006 03572 0000000000
2225 1740N 06426W 03560 0201 165 003 070 131 005 03800 0000000000
2225. 1740N 06424W 03773 0216 122 005 060 121 005 04029 0000000000
2226 1740N 06422W 03977 0231 122 004 050 135 004 04248 0000000000
2226. 1739N 06421W 04165 0234 167 005 038 111 006 04450 0000000000
2227 1739N 06419W 04345 0225 202 006 024 105 008 04644 0000000000
2227. 1739N 06417W 04505 0236 209 006 016 089 007 04816 0000000000
2228 1738N 06415W 04668 0253 211 006 010 123 007 04997 0000000000
2228. 1738N 06414W 04819 0271 222 004 003 173 005 05166 0000000000

[cycloneye]

They took off from ST Croix.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 182240
AF309 0317A PHILIPPE HDOB 03 KNHC
2229 1737N 06412W 04970 0283 238 002 011 201 002 05330 0000000000
2229. 1737N 06410W 05110 0292 249 003 021 217 004 05479 0000000000
2230 1737N 06408W 05241 0301 244 004 033 217 004 05620 0000000000
2230. 1736N 06406W 05349 0308 263 004 037 223 004 05736 0000000000
2231 1736N 06404W 05485 0318 278 005 047 239 006 05882 0000000000
2231. 1735N 06402W 05616 0326 291 005 055 249 005 06022 0000000000
2232 1735N 06401W 05741 0335 310 003 065 245 004 06155 0000000000
2232. 1734N 06359W 05796 0337 314 003 071 245 003 06212 0000000000
2233 1734N 06357W 05798 0337 315 004 071 253 004 06214 0000000000
2233. 1733N 06354W 05796 0338 319 004 071 267 004 06213 0000000000
2234 1733N 06352W 05795 0338 317 005 071 265 005 06213 0000000000
2234. 1732N 06349W 05795 0341 318 004 071 265 005 06216 0000000000
2235 1732N 06347W 05792 0342 325 004 071 259 005 06214 0000000000
2235. 1731N 06344W 05793 0344 322 005 071 255 005 06216 0000000000
2236 1731N 06342W 05792 0343 313 004 075 251 005 06215 0000000000
2236. 1730N 06339W 05793 0340 316 005 071 253 005 06212 0000000000
2237 1729N 06336W 05791 0333 320 005 071 259 006 06204 0000000000
2237. 1729N 06333W 05792 0337 307 005 071 259 005 06208 0000000000
2238 1728N 06331W 05792 0336 306 005 071 257 005 06208 0000000000
2238. 1727N 06328W 05791 0339 298 006 071 259 006 06209 0000000000

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 182250
AF309 0317A PHILIPPE HDOB 04 KNHC
2239 1727N 06325W 05793 0341 293 006 075 251 006 06213 0000000000
2239. 1726N 06322W 05792 0336 297 006 075 239 006 06208 0000000000
2240 1726N 06319W 05791 0334 295 006 073 273 006 06205 0000000000
2240. 1725N 06317W 05791 0339 297 005 075 283 005 06209 0000000000
2241 1724N 06314W 05791 0337 297 005 073 273 006 06208 0000000000
2241. 1724N 06311W 05791 0337 294 006 075 275 006 06208 0000000000
2242 1723N 06308W 05791 0341 293 006 075 261 007 06212 0000000000
2242. 1722N 06305W 05791 0342 296 006 075 261 006 06212 0000000000
2243 1722N 06303W 05791 0338 305 006 075 245 007 06209 0000000000
2243. 1721N 06300W 05792 0339 309 007 071 267 007 06211 0000000000
2244 1720N 06257W 05791 0340 308 007 071 301 007 06211 0000000000
2244. 1720N 06254W 05792 0343 299 008 075 271 008 06214 0000000000
2245 1719N 06251W 05792 0344 292 007 075 279 008 06216 0000000000
2245. 1718N 06248W 05791 0340 292 007 075 279 007 06211 0000000000
2246 1718N 06246W 05791 0339 297 007 075 265 007 06210 0000000000
2246. 1717N 06243W 05791 0329 299 007 075 269 007 06200 0000000000
2247 1717N 06240W 05791 0348 295 007 075 279 008 06219 0000000000
2247. 1716N 06237W 05792 0343 293 007 075 287 007 06214 0000000000
2248 1716N 06234W 05791 0341 291 007 075 285 007 06211 0000000000
2248. 1715N 06231W 05791 0340 291 007 075 293 007 06211 0000000000

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 182246
97779 22404 10174 63300 57900 99005 57771 /4590
RMK AF309 0317A PHILIPPE OB 01