Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

superfly · #1 Postby **superfly** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:23 pm

Area of interest with the wave behind Philippe.

#2 Postby **BigA** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:25 pm

I tend to believe that the Cape Verde season isnt over. I think we may get 2 more systems that form east of the Antilles (not counting Philippe)

jkt21787 · #3 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:26 pm

BigA wrote:I tend to believe that the Cape Verde season isnt over. I think we may get 2 more systems that form east of the Antilles (not counting Philippe)

Mike (~Floydbuster) said:
"The Cape Verde Season is over....My Butt"

I tend to agree with both viewpoints above.

MiamiensisWx · #4 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:28 pm

There is already a topic on the central and eastern Atlantic (African) wave(s) that I posted. All comments and imagery are welcome there!

I wonder why my threads always go down near the bottom before anyone else replies or comments/starts a nice, good debate on systems.

Hyperstorm · #5 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:32 pm

Here we go again...

This powerful tropical wave has definitely caught my attention tonight as it is becoming increasingly better organized.

Quikscat data indicate a fairly well-defined low level circulation and convection has begun to spring up in a fairly impressive manner. These two factors already make this area one of close monitoring.

Right now, UL conditions are only marginally favorable for development. Moderate N-NW flow from the anticyclone in the Western Atlantic is creating some wind shear into the system. This will likely inhibit any rapid development. Tomorrow, UL winds are expected to remain about the same or maybe even increase over the system.

HOWEVER...

Enter the early part of next week... a more favorable upper-level environment is forecast to develop over it. IF the system manages to remain in a low latitude (10-15N), it could escape the brunt of the shear from the west north of it.

It is VERY interesting to see this much activity in the main development region of the Atlantic, when upper-level wind shear values have been among the highest we've seen so far this season...

#6 Postby **abajan** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:55 pm

Looks like Stan will soon be born! :eek:

Hyperstorm · #7 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:24 pm

Sooner, rather than later...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180314
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...WHICH IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADE TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE LOCATED ABOUT 485 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN LOCATED ABOUT 95 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

FORECASTER PASCH

#8 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:29 pm

This was a system I was trying to look at earlier. I think if it holds together through tommorow, it should be worthy of an invest.

I realize that all invests don't develop, but having said that, I'm keeping one eye on TD 18 and the other on this one...

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:34 pm

Hyperstorm this is unbelievable.From an inactive east atlantic because of the troughs and sal now it has activated.

Hyperstorm · #10 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:41 pm

It definitely is impressive, Cycloneye, given the strong troughs that are STILL present over that area of the NE Atlantic. With the arrival of the MJO it has become more moist in the Atlantic.

Just look at the Eastern Pacific right now! 3 classified systems at this time! I can't remember the last time the Eastern Pacific saw such an increased number of tropical cyclones present at one time. It definitely is one of those rare occurances in history.

MJO...

#11 Postby **curtadams** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:50 pm

I see three. Even granting that the upper area is probably in a high-shear zone there's two. Some of the models have had *multiple* CV systems popping up right behind Philippe.

Coredesat · #12 Postby **Coredesat** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:08 am

MJO's definitely the right term for this:

Wet MJO phase in the Cape Verde area. Still somewhat dry in the W Atl and Caribbean, though.

f5 · #13 Postby f5 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:47 am

superfly wrote:Area of interest with the wave behind Philippe.

lots of orange in the GOM i hope it stays.if not were in big trouble and there would be mass panic on the northern gulf coast

superfly · #14 Postby **superfly** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:45 am

18/0430 UTC 9.9N 35.1W T1.0/1.0 97 -- Atlantic Ocean

Josephine96 · #15 Postby **Josephine96** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 6:05 am

Closer and closer to the Greek Alphabet we get..

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 6:45 am

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

We have now invest 97L.

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:27 am

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 20N MOVING W AT
10KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A SHARP LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE WITH
CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE NRN END OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 31W-36W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

8 AM Discussion.

WindRunner · #18 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:31 am

I believe having Stan this month would tie the record of 7 NS (?) in one month, and Tammy doesn't look impossible at this point.

#19 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:33 am

18/1145 UTC 9.9N 37.5W T1.0/1.0 97 -- Atlantic Ocean

#20 Postby **O Town** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:49 am

WindRunner wrote:I believe having Stan this month would tie the record of 7 NS (?) in one month, and Tammy doesn't look impossible at this point.

Yea, and I have a bad feeling about Miss Tammy. Something about that name......Hurricane Tammy just rolls off the tounge to easy. :roll:

Enough going on right now any more and I may start getting confused. 3 is enough to keep everyone busy.