Tropical Depression 18,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

those model runs remind me of the song "lousiana, there trying to wash us away" they played that song a lot after katrina

[Ivanhater]

i think the nhc will move the track north soon

oh yeah, why is that, they have been trending south with the forecast

have you been reading or looking at the models? thats why

[BamaMan]

This is starting to give me the creeps for some reason.

[Stratosphere747]

well track certainly needs to change to texas now, my personal opinion is it will hit northern gulf coast, i think right now track needs to be shifted to mid to north texas right now..jmo

Why?

Read the discussion...There is no hint at a movement to the Texas coast once it becomes under the influence of the High parked over Texas. Show me where there is talk of this High breaking down and then you can say a possible upper "Texas" track.

[Ivanhater]

well track certainly needs to change to texas now, my personal opinion is it will hit northern gulf coast, i think right now track needs to be shifted to mid to north texas right now..jmo

Why?

Read the discussion...There is no hint at a movement to the Texas coast once it becomes under the influence of the High parked over Texas. Show me where there is talk of this High breaking down and then you can say a possible upper "Texas" track.

look at the models, they are showing a weakness in the ridge, no hint at a movement to texas coast? look at the cone man, texas is in it! dont tell me there is "no hint" at a movement to texas

[skysummit]

The evidence of pushing the track to the north Texas coast is in the models...see how they turn to the north at the end.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL182005mlts.gif

[mvtrucking]

well track certainly needs to change to texas now, my personal opinion is it will hit northern gulf coast, i think right now track needs to be shifted to mid to north texas right now..jmo

Why?

Read the discussion...There is no hint at a movement to the Texas coast once it becomes under the influence of the High parked over Texas. Show me where there is talk of this High breaking down and then you can say a possible upper "Texas" track.

look at the models, they are showing a weakness in the ridge, no hint at a movement to texas coast? look at the cone man, texas is in it! dont tell me there is "no hint" at a movement to texas

No doubt about it. There has to be some chance of a weakness for all these models to even hint at going north.

[KatDaddy]

The newest model run shows 10 models headed to Upper TX Coast and 3 to NE Mexico and S TX.

I cannot find how to paste the image. Its protected by login and password

[skysummit]

Ooohhhh cool! I would ask what software are you using to compile these plots, but I'm sure someone else will.

[krysof]

When is the last time Texas was affected, wasn't it Claudette in 2003 as a Category 1 hurricane?


BTW I finally reached 1000 posts and became a hurricane. Woohoo

[KatDaddy]

I just removed the link. I see it did work. Its from a private site so I only left it for a few minutes.

SkySummit can remove the link on your post. The Storm2k Mods will after us.

[dixiebreeze]

i think the nhc will move the track north soon

I think you are so right, Ivan. Given the huge high in the western Gulf and the climatic inclinations to turn storm northerly (especially this time of year), your sentiments are right on.

[Thunder44]

well track certainly needs to change to texas now, my personal opinion is it will hit northern gulf coast, i think right now track needs to be shifted to mid to north texas right now..jmo

Don't expect large changes in TPC's tracks, for every model run that shifts either direction (especially the 6z and 18z runs). Models changes happen many times in the long-range. They like to remain in continuity, to avoid large errors in the track forecast. I wouldn't expect anything more than slight shift north in the next advisory, if that at all..

[Stratosphere747]

well track certainly needs to change to texas now, my personal opinion is it will hit northern gulf coast, i think right now track needs to be shifted to mid to north texas right now..jmo

Don't expect large changes in TPC's tracks, for every model run that shifts either direction (especially the 6z and 18z runs). Models changes happen many times in the long-range. They like to remain in continuity, to avoid large errors in the track forecast. I wouldn't expect anything more than slight shift north in the next advisory, if that at all..

Spot on Thunder...

[JamesFromMaine2]

No one thought they would shift Katrina's path as far west as they did all at once and yet they did! So who knows!

[dwg71]

Look at the global models. They show BOC to Southern TX track.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well I like the Shakespearean type wording...haha I'm just insane. I just finished A Midsummer Night's Dream

ANYWAY, we must watch the trough forecasted to dig into SE US by
Wednesday for that northerly turn....

[jlauderdal]

i think the nhc will move the track north soon

oh yeah, why is that, they have been trending south with the forecast

have you been reading or looking at the models? thats why

yeah i am looking at the same stuff you are looking at and i dont see the track being pushed north for t least the first 72H of the forecast period. what model are you looking at that leads you to believe there is going to be this push north?

[cjrciadt]

[CocoCreek]

i think the nhc will move the track north soon

oh yeah, why is that, they have been trending south with the forecast

have you been reading or looking at the models? thats why

yeah i am looking at the same stuff you are looking at and i dont see the track being pushed north for t least the first 72H of the forecast period. what model are you looking at that leads you to believe there is going to be this push north?

With a large high in place, the only thing that would make it tend a little more North would be the strength of the system as it builds a bigger vertical profile in the upper atmosphere...so if it were to rapidly intensify/deepen, that could have a small impact on overall direction.