Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[abajan]

BTW folks, it's Philippe, not Phillipe!
The best way to remember that is that they're a total of 3 ps, as in C3PO!

[Astro_man92]

And the poster who said that Stan might be a nasty Cat.4 for the Carolinas might nail it as well because I don't really like the look of future Invest 97 (which could become Stan) ... ...

well that wasn't me then I said that i thought that Stan was goign to be a C5 for the carolinas (sorry couldn't help myself)

[caribepr]

Sooooo...having gone out last night and having slept late this morning, lots of newness going on but no one really addressing what is happening with this storm, but rather with the name. I guess it must not be of much importance, going by the last two pages of this thread? (third thing I check on waking up...first the models, then the sats, then this site... )

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think we are looking at the models and making predictions again. I am reminded by the words in this mornings discussion, which is that they are just putting the track on or near the models becuase that is the best guidance for NOW. The longer term track looks different than the tropical models because the synoptic scale pattern will possibly make the track more west than the current model tracks.

Not saying that is a certainty, but it sure looks likely right now. In other words, a lot of attention needs to be paid over the next couple weeks.

[caribepr]

I think we are looking at the models and making predictions again. I am reminded by the words in this mornings discussion, which is that they are just putting the track on or near the models becuase that is the best guidance for NOW. The longer term track looks different than the tropical models because the synoptic scale pattern will possibly make the track more west than the current model tracks.

Not saying that is a certainty, but it sure looks likely right now. In other words, a lot of attention needs to be paid over the next couple weeks.

Well, for me and some others, it's attention in the next couple of days (and beyond with whatever is lined up next), so I was curious for some hard stuff
But thanks!!! I figured it out with the science sites opinions- and we're ready anyway, as much as can be, no matter who is right or wrong. That's what we do here and then we play cards.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 55.5W...OR ABOUT
455 MILES... 730 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
...AT 18/0900 UTC MOVING NW 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO THE N AND S OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD...AND IMPROVING. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

8 AM Discussion.

[krysof]

I have a bad feeling about Philippe, just the track for me is frightening. The chance of United States landfall is increasing, as models do predict the ridge to redevelop, when it happens is the key to hit turning more towards the west. Phillipe is going to be stronger if it takes a shot at the carolinas then Ophellia I believe, possibly major. I haven't been this worried since Katrina was about to hit New Orleans.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE (AL172005) ON 20050918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050918 1200 050919 0000 050919 1200 050920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 55.5W 15.5N 56.1W 16.2N 56.6W 17.2N 57.0W
BAMM 14.9N 55.5W 15.6N 56.2W 16.4N 56.9W 17.4N 57.6W
A98E 14.9N 55.5W 16.0N 56.2W 17.0N 56.8W 18.3N 57.1W
LBAR 14.9N 55.5W 15.7N 56.2W 16.7N 57.1W 17.7N 58.2W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 61KTS 68KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 61KTS 68KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050920 1200 050921 1200 050922 1200 050923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 57.4W 21.4N 57.7W 23.7N 58.8W 25.2N 59.9W
BAMM 18.6N 58.3W 21.1N 59.2W 22.9N 60.5W 24.1N 61.6W
A98E 19.8N 56.9W 23.1N 57.5W 26.2N 58.3W 28.4N 59.0W
LBAR 18.6N 59.3W 20.6N 60.3W 22.5N 61.4W 24.5N 62.8W
SHIP 74KTS 85KTS 88KTS 84KTS
DSHP 74KTS 85KTS 88KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 55.5W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 55.1W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 54.6W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

[SkeetoBite]

[krysof]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html



More accurate models, Gfdl included and Ukmet.

[SkeetoBite]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200517_model.html



More accurate models, Gfdl included and Ukmet.

More accurate.... in the model performance for those models in their graphic, right?

Don't want folks thinking my maps are not accurate.

[krysof]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200517_model.html



More accurate models, Gfdl included and Ukmet.

More accurate.... in the model performance for those models in their graphic, right?

Don't want folks thinking my maps are not accurate.

No, but in your model graphics, the best models are only the Gfdl, and to an extent the Ukmet (middle accurate model) I also included the Nogaps and gfs which are two other good models you didn't have.

[skysummit]

Skeetobite...any way you can get the rest of the "better" models on your maps? I notice out of the sites that provide models, there is not one that has all of them....except for Midatlanticwx.com which I subscribe to, but it's not usually updated right away.

[SkeetoBite]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200517_model.html



More accurate models, Gfdl included and Ukmet.

More accurate.... in the model performance for those models in their graphic, right?

Don't want folks thinking my maps are not accurate.

No, but in your model graphics, the best models are only the Gfdl, and to an extent the Ukmet (middle accurate model) I also included the Nogaps and gfs which are two other good models you didn't have.

I couldn't agree more. The only value I've seen in the other models is when they come into consensus with GFDL and UKMET, which by then, is useless. We'll be adding the models you pointed out very soon.

[SkeetoBite]

Skeetobite...any way you can get the rest of the "better" models on your maps? I notice out of the sites that provide models, there is not one that has all of them....except for Midatlanticwx.com which I subscribe to, but it's not usually updated right away.

We're working on a tool where users can create a map of the models with only the models they pick from a list, or all models combined. So far, we only have the "single model" component done. This means we are currently testing an interactive map that lets the user select a single model from the models we currently offer.

If someone can point me to a reliable (read official) source for the raw model data for the missing models, we'll work quickly to add them. Help from a Pro-Met here would be greatly appreciated and graciously accepted!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Is there a possibility that Philippe could turn west after he gets north of the islands? The reason I ask is because with the high steering TD18 west wouldn't it move off to the east therefore blocking and turning Philippe to the west?

[skysummit]

.....and the models also have AL97 heading westward too. Could Philippe turn west later down the road?

[krysof]

I think yes. The high will build to its north, and cause it to move more west. I think it will more WNW when that happens. It's unclear when that will happen, but the entire East Coast should not let their guard down, then again TD 18 is going to get a lot of attention from everyone as it could hit the keys, maybe south florida and then potentially Texas, I think once it's in the gulf, it will rapidly intensify because the conditions will become very favorable, it won't be near as strong as Katrina was at her most powerful state, because the SST's are cooler than they were when Katrina was there.

[OURAGAN]

If you look at the latest two loops ,you will see Philippe turning fom NW to West/Nort west.
I hope it's temporary.
What do you thik?

[OURAGAN]

Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:52 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you look at the latest two loops ,you will see Philippe turning from NW to West/North west.
I hope it's temporary.
What do you think?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html