Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050918 1200 050919 0000 050919 1200 050920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.5N 36.6W 10.7N 38.4W 10.8N 40.3W 11.0N 42.3W
BAMM 10.5N 36.6W 11.0N 38.4W 11.4N 40.4W 11.8N 42.3W
A98E 10.5N 36.6W 10.7N 39.4W 11.0N 42.2W 11.4N 44.8W
LBAR 10.5N 36.6W 11.1N 38.8W 11.9N 41.0W 12.8N 43.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050920 1200 050921 1200 050922 1200 050923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.1N 44.4W 11.1N 48.6W 11.1N 53.1W 12.1N 58.1W
BAMM 12.1N 44.3W 12.0N 48.0W 12.5N 51.9W 13.6N 55.6W
A98E 11.6N 47.2W 12.8N 51.4W 14.0N 55.3W 15.5N 58.9W
LBAR 13.4N 46.0W 14.1N 50.7W 14.2N 54.7W 13.4N 58.3W
SHIP 50KTS 60KTS 63KTS 65KTS
DSHP 50KTS 60KTS 63KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 36.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 33.7W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 30.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Interesting that the models dont go fishing with this one as they tend to a rapid north bias.

[SkeetoBite]

[Brent]

[Scorpion]

Could be dangerous Caribbean storm in the future.

[skysummit]

Holy crap....I thought for sure this one would be a recurve.

[krysof]

I think the storms are tired of recurving, since Nate, Lee, Maria all recurved. Ophelia never made an official U.S landfall, but it did recurve, though it caused a lot of damage due to its proximity to the coast.

[cjrciadt]

Noon models for maybe for Stan the Man?

[wxmann_91]

I believe having Stan this month would tie the record of 7 NS (?) in one month, and Tammy doesn't look impossible at this point.

IIRC, September 2002 saw 9 named storms.

Noon models for maybe Tammy?

If 97L develops it will be Stan, not Tammy.

[Hurricanehink]

I believe having Stan this month would tie the record of 7 NS (?) in one month, and Tammy doesn't look impossible at this point.

IIRC, September 2002 saw 9 named storms.

Noon models for maybe Tammy?

If 97L develops it will be Stan, not Tammy.

September 2002 saw 9 named storms, but it had 8 named storms form in the month. Tropical Storm Dolly lasted from late August to early September. If we get Rita and Stan, it will be 6 named storms. Not quite a record, but we have time to get to Vince to get to the record.

[chris_fit]

Another one? are you kidding me?

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!

[cinlfla]

Holy Crap!

LOL Hurricanegirl, I couldn't have said it better

[HurricaneGirl]

This is crazy. One after another. Not to mention the simultaneous activity in the EPAC.

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow: This is crazy. One after another. Not to mention the simultaneous activity in the EPAC.

and the wet mjo is not here yet, lol

[HurricaneGirl]

What's the wet mjo going to do?

[abajan]

Holy crap....I thought for sure this one would be a recurve.

My thoughts exactly. I'm quite surprised to see these models pushing future Stan into the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane!

[Ivanhater]

:?: What's the wet mjo going to do?

wet mjo is in the epac right now, cant imagine what it will be like in the atlantic when it gets here

[HurricaneGirl]

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 181528
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN...LOCATED
ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED BUT HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN


I thought the TWO was posted already but anyway here it is.

[cycloneye]

Another graphic of the models for 97L.