Tropical Depression Lydia at EPAC

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

EPAC keeps very busy.This is from 95E invest as there is another one 96E.

[senorpepr]

I'll have to add this along with 17L onto the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update page later this afternoon. I can only imagine how busy it is for the folks at the NHC who are writing 5 advisories packages at a time. Maybe 6 or 7 depending on how quickly the other invests in the Atlantic and EPAC develop.

[cycloneye]

Yes it means that the advisories will be slow to come out as there is plenty of work.And also the TWO wil be the very last one and very late.

[Brent]

Yes it means that the advisories will be slow to come out as there is plenty of work.And also the TWO wil be the very last one and very late.

Luckily, I have nothing else to do today.

[WindRunner]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005
1500Z SAT SEP 17 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 115.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 115.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.7N 115.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.6N 118.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.1N 119.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
[b][/b]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WHXX01 KMIA 171927
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA (EP122005) ON 20050917 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050917 1800 050918 0600 050918 1800 050919 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 115.5W 12.3N 116.8W 11.8N 118.0W 11.0N 118.9W
BAMM 12.5N 115.5W 12.7N 116.7W 12.4N 117.8W 12.1N 118.5W
LBAR 12.5N 115.5W 12.7N 116.8W 12.8N 118.3W 12.8N 120.0W
SHIP 35KTS 44KTS 50KTS 53KTS
DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 50KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050919 1800 050920 1800 050921 1800 050922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.5N 119.6W 10.6N 120.3W 11.2N 121.1W 12.0N 122.7W
BAMM 12.4N 118.8W 14.5N 118.3W 18.0N 118.3W 21.7N 119.7W
LBAR 13.0N 121.8W 13.9N 125.4W 15.7N 128.9W 18.3N 132.6W
SHIP 54KTS 52KTS 47KTS 39KTS
DSHP 54KTS 52KTS 47KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 115.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 114.3W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 112.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 135NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM


The Eastern Pacific scores again!!!

Score
15 for Atlantic...
12 for Eastern Pacific...

Can the Eastern Pacific pull 3 more out of the bag? I see one more system developing already in the Eastern Pacific.

[Scorpion]

Definitely not. It will very soon be 16-11.

[Andrew92]

Definitely not. It will very soon be 16-11.

More like 16-12. L is the 12th letter of the alphabet.

-Andrew92

[Scorpion]

16-12. Anyway you have it thats a big lead for the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

503
WTPZ42 KNHC 172040
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND -85 DEGREES CELSIUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE
2.5 OR 35 KT. BASED ON THE CLASSIFICATIONS AND AN IMPROVED
SATELLITE SIGNATURE...TWELVE-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
LIDIA. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF LIDIA...INTERACTION AND/OR MERGING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST MAINTAINS LIDIA BETWEEN 35 KT AND 45 KT THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/03. THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS DEPENDENT UPON THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL STORM AND
THE DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MOVES LIDIA VERY
SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT..BUT THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY TRACK LIDIA TO THE NORTH.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.5N 115.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.5N 115.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 12.6N 116.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 12.8N 116.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 13.2N 117.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 13.7N 117.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 14.5N 118.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 15.0N 119.0W 40 KT

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT. DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLY BEING
HINDERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE SOME 300 N MI TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE LATTER SYSTEM MAY BE DISRUPTING SOME OF THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO LIDIA. ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...BECAUSE THE NEIGHBORING DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH THE STORM. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN
270/4. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE. STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED...AND
THE INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF LIDIA IS
PROBABLY NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT
INITIALIZE LIDIA PROPERLY...AND SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH
THE NOGAPS RUN...WHICH...BECAUSE OF ITS INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE...
AT LEAST STARTS THE STORM IN ABOUT THE CORRECT LOCATION.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 12.4N 116.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 12.7N 117.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 13.2N 118.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 13.5N 119.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 14.0N 120.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 121.0W 45 KT

[Brent]

16-12. Anyway you have it thats a big lead for the Atlantic.

Gonna be 17 for the Atlantic soon.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005

LIDIA IS NOT LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. IN FACT...IT IS
NOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE BROADER AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITHIN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED. AS NOTED
EARLIER...DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLY BEING HINDERED BY THE INFLUENCE
OF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED N MI TO THE NORTHEAST.
ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...
AND UNLESS LIDIA STARTS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED SOON...SUBSEQUENT
INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD.

IT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER...BUT BASED ON AN
EARLIER...0419Z...SSM/I OVERPASS...IT HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST. ANOTHER RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED USING VISIBLE
IMAGES LATER TODAY. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...MY CURRENT POSITION
ESTIMATE IS NOT FAR FROM WHERE SOME SMALL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN...AND SLOW...270/2. TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT
AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH STEERING EFFECT WILL BE INDUCED AS A
RESULT OF THE INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW...A VERY SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
PREDICTED. IT MUST BE ADMITTED...HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.


FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 12.5N 115.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 12.7N 116.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 12.9N 116.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 13.1N 117.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 13.4N 117.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 14.0N 118.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 121.0W 45 KT

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 181502
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005

THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LIDIA HAS REDEVELOPED. DESPITE
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE IS STILL STRUGGLING TO REMAIN
ORGANIZED. A HELPFUL 0933Z AMSR-E PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND STILL THIS
POSITION MAY NEED TO BE READJUSTED BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. LIDIA IS CURRENTLY BEING
INFLUENCED BY A DISTURBANCE 250 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY HELP TO INFLUENCE
BOTH THE FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SLOW...280/2.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE DIVERGENT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
BETWEEN LIDIA AND THE DISTURBANCE. THERFORE...THE LARGE SCALE
STEERING MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES LIDIA VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS
MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ARRIVED AND IT APPEARS
THAT LIDIA AND THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE POSSIBLY TRYING TO
MERGE. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER LIDIA WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION OR BE OVERTAKEN BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION
TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE UNUSUAL NATURE OF
THIS SCENARIO...THE CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 12.5N 115.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 12.6N 116.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 12.8N 116.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 13.2N 116.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 14.0N 118.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W 45 KT

[cycloneye]

182047
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005
2100Z SUN SEP 18 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 114.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 114.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 115.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 114.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB