UNOFFICIAL..TD 18 Forecast 1; cane in 2 days--into FL Keys

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 1:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... hteen.html

I've initialized the center farther north than satellite estimates and allow for a minimal hurricane in 2 days; however, I do believe that this is about as far north as the forecast will go; however, the exact forecast, especially in the short term is due to error based on pinning down the center.

Track graphic coming soon.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Track graphic now available.

Scott

[WeatherEmperor]

would you consider changing your track since the NHC now has the center further south at 21.9 instead of 22.0N at 2pm?

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this is going to stay a depression intill the 11pm Advisorie. So really it will not have much time before florida to make hurricane....NC good forecast.

[ncweatherwizard]

would you consider changing your track since the NHC now has the center further south at 21.9 instead of 22.0N at 2pm?

<RICKY>

Well, this is a bit of a tricky situation, but a good question. RECON appears to be fixing the center south of my initialized point, which is on the far southwest side of the convection. It looks to me that the LLC is in fact closer to the NHC position, but given the shear from the south, and what appears to be a mid-level circulation farther north and embedded closer to my forecast's position, I would expect that we would see an LLC form farther north sometime soon. If this doesn't occur in the next 12 to 24 hours, 1) we'll have a very disorganized cyclone and 2) I will shift the forecast south--thus the reasoning that this forecast track is probably about as far north as it can go.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

And also, currently my forecast track is really not an LLC position, but moreorless represents a forecasted LLC position, for consistency's sake.