Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

apocalypt-flyer · #41 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:35 am

Doesn't the last graphic mean that most models think it's going to dissipate?

WindRunner · #42 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:37 am

No, the most models will only plot 5 days out, some only 3. The end of the lines is where that 5 days ends.

#43 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:51 pm

18/1745 UTC 8.7N 37.0W T1.0/1.0 97 -- Atlantic Ocean

Hyperstorm · #44 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:55 pm

This afternoon, an interesting vortex split from the strong tropical wave (Invest 97L) and is located near 13N 37W. I am not sure if this is the LLC that appeared on Quikscat data yesterday. If it is, it is moving NW toward a zone which is expected to remain unfavorable for any development.

There is still an area with LOTS of convergence and westerly winds at the lower levels near 10N 35W. This area could easily spawn a new vortex/low with time.

There is really not much to add regarding this system today as the shear was well forecasted by the models to persist (or even strengthen) into today (That's why the system is looking so disorganized). Tomorrow is the day when atmospheric conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for it to start organizing. That is, of course, if overall the disturbance remains south of 15N.

#45 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 4:28 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 182117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM RITA...LOCATED
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED... BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM RITA ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM RITA ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

FORECASTER STEWART

#46 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:18 pm

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 10N35W...
ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE TILTED FROM 8N34W TO 20N38W AND MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE SHARP AND HAS BEEN VERY
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS NRN END...BUT
THE TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOW HAS BEEN RAGGED AND SPORADIC.
RECENTLY HOWEVER...A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST
N OF THE CENTER. AN ELONGATED ARC CLOUD IS MOVING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM THE WAVE ALONG 40W...WHICH USUALLY INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 10N-14N AND THIS WILL PROVIDE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 34W-38W AND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

8 PM Discussion.

Hyperstorm as you said they are too about more favorable conditions in the next 24-36 hours.

#47 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 10:19 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 190305
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
UPGRADED HURRICANE PHILIPPE..LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM RITA...LOCATED
ABOUT 295 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED... BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM RITA ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM RITA ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

FORECASTER PASCH

10:30 TWO for 97L.

The attention is rightly so on Rita and on Phillippe but let's not forget 97.

#48 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:28 am

5:30 AM EDT TWO:

A large and elongated area of disturbed weather is located about
midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Although this system
is associated with an area of low pressure and is generating winds
of 25 to 35 mph...upper-level winds are not particularly favorable
for additional development.

I think we may have a depression right after UL winds become a little more favorable.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #49 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:38 am

I agree...This year has not been a good year for systems out there...But once they got more northwest they developed like LEE,Maria....

Thunder44 · #50 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:47 am

HURAKAN wrote:5:30 AM EDT TWO:

A large and elongated area of disturbed weather is located about
midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Although this system
is associated with an area of low pressure and is generating winds
of 25 to 35 mph...upper-level winds are not particularly favorable
for additional development.

I think we may have a depression right after UL winds become a little more favorable.

From that statement it sounds like we may already have a TD. Sounds more like they don't want to waste time writing advisories for it.

#51 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:52 am

19/0530 UTC 12.7N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 97

Dvorak numbers have also increased.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #52 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:54 am

There is a big area of convection with it to...If they are writing Advisories on Max(NO THREAT) with a storm Like Rita heading for land. Then we will see what they see when the sun comes up.

DESTRUCTION5 · #53 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:55 am

97L looks to be the Lisa of last year...Last gasp taking up space and fish in the end,,,Right now its getting sheared all to hell..

Marilyn · #54 Postby **Marilyn** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:58 am

I just looked at the model cmc How reliable is that model? It shows a system near the islands at 144 hours , But none of the others show this sysem Could it be 97L ???? Thanks Marilyn :wink:

MortisFL · #55 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:18 am

Marilyn wrote:I just looked at the model cmc How reliable is that model? It shows a system near the islands at 144 hours , But none of the others show this sysem Could it be 97L ???? Thanks Marilyn

From where the CMC starts, it looks like the system is Philippe. I think as far as reliability, its one of the lesser reliable of the global models.

#56 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:46 am

19/1145 UTC 13.5N 39.5W T1.5/1.5 97 -- Atlantic Ocean

Marilyn · #57 Postby **Marilyn** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:50 am

Thank You MortisFl
Does anyone know if there are any new Model Plots out for 97L Today :wink:

#58 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:58 am

MortisFL wrote:
Marilyn wrote:I just looked at the model cmc How reliable is that model? It shows a system near the islands at 144 hours , But none of the others show this sysem Could it be 97L ???? Thanks Marilyn

From where the CMC starts, it looks like the system is Philippe. I think as far as reliability, its one of the lesser reliable of the global models.

I'm getting the impression that CMC doesn't consider shear. The last version I saw (same as Marilyn, I think) had Philippe sailing through the Bahamas as if that Central Atlantic trough wasn't there and - more tellingly - 97L turning into a major hurricane after passing through the 40++ kt shear of the subtropical jet. I don't THINK so!

bigmike · #59 Postby **bigmike** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:18 am

97L is now moving northwest and will probably become a fish

Next 10 page thread on a wave is now ready for boarding. :roll:

#60 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:34 am

hmmm, sounds like a change in opinion, or just forecaster?

5:30am TWO
A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND IS GENERATING WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

8am TWD
A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 12N38W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 38W/39W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS QUITE SHARP AND IS PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS N END AS WELL AS E AND N OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 12N-15N AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 37W FROM 10.5N-14N AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 34W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 33W-38W.

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