Is Texas's luck running dry?

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f5
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Is Texas's luck running dry?

#1 Postby f5 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:04 pm

according to all the models it does but what are we going to do with all the Katrina victims.
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Galvestongirl
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#2 Postby Galvestongirl » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:09 pm

Mabe I am seeing things, but, the modles I have looked at are going towards mex/brownsville area.
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#3 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:12 pm

Galvestongirl wrote:Mabe I am seeing things, but, the modles I have looked at are going towards mex/brownsville area.

Apparently you are :wink: (no offense :D)

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#4 Postby Galvestongirl » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:14 pm

offense not taken, thanks for showing those, I have only seen the previous runs, these must be ne :D
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#5 Postby dwg71 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:14 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Galvestongirl wrote:Mabe I am seeing things, but, the modles I have looked at are going towards mex/brownsville area.

Apparently you are :wink: (no offense :D)

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The GFDL and the UKMET is probably more reliable. These are only a few samples of models. They are not the gospel.. FSUensamble, the CMC, the NOGAPS and others are factored into the forecast.
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#6 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:15 pm

and some of those models are intialized to far south
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#7 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:16 pm

look at where the ukmet and gfdl intialized on this run....too far south...not good runs...
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#8 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:17 pm

dwg71 wrote:The GFDL and the UKMET is probably more reliable. These are only a few samples of models. They are not the gospel.. FSUensamble, the CMC, the NOGAPS and others are factored into the forecast.

Initialization appears to be a bit south, also keep in mind that NHC is mentioning a reformation of the center further north which shifts everything north of course. And the fact that the ridge is now forecasted to break down faster/more than anticipated, as the model plots are indicative of, and TX (all of TX) should be watching this one closely.

Also, the CMC, NOGAPS, GFDL, and UKMET are trending more north with time.
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#9 Postby jes » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:25 pm

On Thursday or Friday the NHC had Katrina headed for Florida -- on Monday she hit La. It's so early still. I'm just going to assume she's coming to me so I won't be so busy if it turns out to be true. Go ahead a make out of town motel reservations before the rush starts ---- just in case she ends up a Cat 5 headed for your house.
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#10 Postby scostorms » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:16 pm

Don't always go by what the models say. I would be weary if I lived from Panama City all the way to Brownsville. Models are only an idea of what it could do, not what it will do. I do think Texas' luck has run dry. I bet we will see a close to Houston landfall though.
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#11 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:17 pm

We are watching closely. 22 years since Alicia in the HOU-GAL areas. The longest timeframe ever and it the pattern is right we will be a target again. Its looking like our luck is running out
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