Tropical Depression 18,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Flakeys]

KEYS STORM SURGE

STORM SURGE & STORM TIDE IMPACTS.
OUR STORM SURGE MODEL ESTIMATES A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET
FROM A CATEGORY 1 STORM. THIS ACCORDS WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK.

OUR ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE A TOTAL OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS
POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

HERE ARE THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE:
WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL 1031 AM & 1045 PM MONDAY.
WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL 1118 AM & 1129 PM TUESDAY.
KEY WEST 1141 AM & 1134 PM MONDAY.
KEY WEST 1230 PM TUES & 1208 AM EARLY WED MORNING.

STORM SURGE WILL BE GREATEST ON THE SO. SHORE. IN GENERAL A SLOWLY
MOVING STORM WILL PRODUCE LESS SURGE. A RAPIDLY MOVING STORM WILL
PRODUCE GREATER SURGE.

RAINFALL IMPACTS.
WE EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WE WILL BE ABLE TO
REFINE OUR ESTIMATES.

NEXT UPDATE.
OUR NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WILL BE AVAILABLE
AROUND 530 PM THIS AFTERNOON.OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN (AL182005) ON 20050918 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050918 1800 050919 0600 050919 1800 050920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.9N 72.4W 22.5N 74.1W 22.9N 76.1W 23.3N 78.2W
BAMM 21.9N 72.4W 22.3N 74.1W 22.6N 75.9W 23.1N 77.8W
A98E 21.9N 72.4W 22.2N 74.3W 22.5N 76.3W 22.8N 78.6W
LBAR 21.9N 72.4W 22.3N 74.1W 22.9N 76.0W 23.4N 77.7W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 46KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 46KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050920 1800 050921 1800 050922 1800 050923 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.8N 80.4W 24.8N 84.5W 25.9N 87.5W 27.3N 90.7W
BAMM 23.6N 79.8W 24.8N 84.0W 26.0N 87.6W 27.5N 91.9W
A98E 23.2N 81.0W 23.8N 85.4W 24.7N 89.1W 26.7N 92.1W
LBAR 24.0N 79.3W 24.7N 81.5W 26.2N 82.1W 28.3N 82.7W
SHIP 65KTS 78KTS 83KTS 82KTS
DSHP 65KTS 78KTS 83KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.9N LONCUR = 72.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 21.6N LONM12 = 70.7W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.3N LONM24 = 68.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[wxmann_91]

TD 18 is going to become a big storm (sizewise):

[tailgater]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
If you use this site and zoom in tight, then put your pointer on where you think the center is it will give you the location in the lower left hand of the page.

[Ivanhater]

model run north of nhc track again

[WindRunner]

TD 18 is going to become a big storm (sizewise):

That can be deceiving, though. DC was on that brown edge for ophelia when she was supposed to skirt the coast.

[CronkPSU]

hey the LBAR takes it right over my house at 120 hours

[WindRunner]

Soon to be updated. GFDL and UKMET have 18Z runs already there. They are initalized further south and move considerably faster.

[CocoCreek]

I don't think those models are being initialized in the right spot...in looking at the visible loop over the past few frames and the tropical forecast points put out by the NHC earlier today...the LLC is definitely relocating by a pretty substantial distance further North...it even seems like it may have picked up some speed over the past hour or so...

[gatorcane]

this storm is a S. Florida threat. The center is clearly well north of where the NHC has initialized it. Given that, expect a north shift tonight.

[Scorpion]

I agree. Models are way too south again. And that wind map looks interesting . I like big storms, good eye candy.

[StormWarning1]

The GFDL plot is the one from 12Z. The 18Z run will not be out until about 22Z. It comes out after the 18Z GFS.

[CocoCreek]

It appears at this early stage that unlike Katrina, when she came through, which had all of its weather to the South of the center as it was still in the organization process, TD18 seems like it will be the opposite where all the heavy weather will be to the North and East...like a more traditional storm. So even if the center tracks fairly far South, there will be some nasty weather to contend with across the major SE&SW FL counties North of the Keys.

[gatorcane]

It appears at this early stage that unlike Katrina, when she came through, which had all of its weather to the South of the center as it was still in the organization process, TD18 seems like it will be the opposite where all the heavy weather will be to the North and East...like a more traditional storm. So even if the center tracks fairly far South, there will be some nasty weather to contend with across the major SE&SW FL counties North of the Keys.

To some degree yes. However, Katrina had a massive ridge above it that "pushed" the weather south of the center. Currently TD18 is under the influence of some southerly shear. However, the NHC expects this to abate and the ridge to being influencing her much more in about 2 days. This would cause the system to become more symmetric and we could notice the similar "push" from the ridge that we saw with Katrina.

[vaffie]

Reconaissance just found the center to be south of the convection--where the 18Z models were initialized. The center might reform to the north slightly, but once the shear leaves tonight, I think the models will move back southward again. So, I expect the center may just graze south Florida, if that, not become a major threat, but the storm is already growing in size and stature, so even a grazing might cause a lot of damage. Be prepared, regardless. Meanwhile, in the longer run, the latest model runs show that the faster it moves, the more likely south Texas will be hit, the slower, southeast Texas.

http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/map ... query=true

URNT12 KNHC 181754
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/17:28:20Z
B. 21 deg 54 min N
072 deg 20 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 15 kt
E. 149 deg 040 nm
F. 212 deg 017 kt
G. 142 deg 055 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 25 C/ 304 m
J. 23 C/ 323 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0218A CYCLONE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 17 KT SE QUAD 17:09:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 142 / 55NM

[cjrciadt]

I loathe the LBAR again.

[jasons2k]

This is the most concern for TX I have had all season, moreso than Emily.

[Flakeys]

Monroe County EOC

EFFECTIVE AT NOON TODAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2005
A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL VISITORS, NON-RESIDENTS, AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES, FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE SOUTH.

ALL COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED AT NOON MONDAY.
ALL STATE AND COUNTY PARKS ARE CLOSED .
SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ALL MUNICIPALITIES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ‘CITY OF KEY WEST’ WILL CLOSE AT NOON MONDAY. CITY OF KEY WEST WILL BE CLOSED ALL DAY MONDAY.
ALL COURTS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. JURORS ARE RELEASED FROM JURY DUTY FOR THE WEEK.
THE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL, SUGARLOAF, STANLEY SWITLIK, AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED AT NOON, TOMORROW, MONDAY SEPT. 19.
THE SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTARTION MEETING I S POST-PONED INDEFINETLY

THERE WILL BE NORMAL GARBAGE SERVICE ON MONDAY AND NO GARBAGE SERVICE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON TUESDAY. PLEASE SECURE YOUR GARBAGE CANS AND DO NOT PLACE PLACE GARBAGE CANS AT CURB-SIDE



FOR QUESTIONS REGARDING MONROE COUNTY WEATHER PLEASE CALL THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 305-295-1316 OR VISIT THEIR WEBSITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST.

IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONROE COUNTY FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DIRECTIVES AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR THE MOST CURRENT INFORMATION. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CALL THE OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AT 305-289-6018.

[Ivanhater]

i believe new vortex has center further north 22 and 11min

[gatorcane]

yes you are right...