Tropical Depression Philippe Advisories=Last Advisorie

[msbee]

The estimated initial motion of 335/6 is a little to the east of the
previous track...perhaps due to the center being drawn in that
direction by the large convective burst that developed early this
morning. The forecast track is adjusted just slightly to the east
and is very close to the model consensus...which takes the
developing storm northwestward and eventualy north-northwestward
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge...between high pressure
cells over the central Atlantic and over the eastern U.S.

good news for the islands!

[bvigal]

REALLY good news!! But here comes another one which may not be so kind as to go fishing and leave us alone.

[cycloneye]

Yes let's watch 97L.

[HurricaneQueen]

So glad my friends in the Caribbean appear to have dodged another one. Hope this "luck" holds.

Lynn

[msbee]

hi Lynn
we're hoping our luck holds too
as cycloneye says, we have to watch 97L now.
Barbara

[caribepr]

hi Lynn
we're hoping our luck holds too
as cycloneye says, we have to watch 97L now.
Barbara

My eyes hurt.

[msbee]

yea, mine too.
I'm tired of seeing the colors red and yellow all over the map
LOL

[HurricaneQueen]

I feel your pain!!! I'm trying to do prep work around here and keep one eye on the board. Hopefully, TD18 will stay well south of here and that 97L stays out of your region!

Lynn

[cycloneye]

182035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...PHILIPPE CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT
400 MILES... 645 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13
KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 55.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$




947
WTNT22 KNHC 182033
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
2100Z SUN SEP 18 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 55.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 55.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 55.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 56.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.8N 57.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.9N 58.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.1N 58.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 55.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...PHILIPPE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES... 630 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 55.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

HURRICANE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
0300Z MON SEP 19 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 55.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 55.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 55.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 56.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 57.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.6N 58.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 58.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 55.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

245
WTNT42 KNHC 190259
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 83 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE PLANE SUBSEQUENTLY CLIMBED
TO 700 MB BECAUSE OF TURBULENCE IN THE STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS
TYPICAL OF INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
ALSO MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 988 MB IN THE EYE BY
DROPWINDSONDE. THE DROP HAD SURFACE WINDS OF 17 KT...SO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER. USING THE
80 PER CENT FACTOR TO ESIMATE SURFACE WINDS FROM 850 MB...CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. PHILIPPE IS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...ON THIS ADVISORY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AS PHILIPPE
ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES NORTH OF ABOUT 23N.

BASED ON THE LATEST RECON FIXES...THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7...
ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTHWARD.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE
HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD PATH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.5N 55.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 56.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.6N 57.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.6N 58.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.8N 58.8W 85 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 59.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 60.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 29.0N 60.5W 95 KT

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 190830
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND DVORAK SATELLITE
ANALYSES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 65 KT.
ALTHOUGH RECON REPORTED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AN EYE HAS NOT YET BEEN
EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGES. CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW STRONG OUTFLOW
OVER MOST SECTORS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENT...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 29-30 DEG C...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS OR SO. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LATER IN THE
PERIOD WHEN STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM
THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS OUTPUT THROUGH 96 HOURS AND
A LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AT DAY 5.

BASED ON EARLIER RECON FIXES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN JUST WEST OF DUE
NORTH AND A LITTLE SLOWER...350/6. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60-65W WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING REGIME IS CONSISTENT WITH A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE....AND SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONU.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.1N 56.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.9N 56.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.9N 57.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 19.9N 57.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 58.4W 85 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 59.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 60.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 29.5N 60.0W 90 KT

[wx247]

Here is the 5 am public advisory since no one posted it.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...PHILIPPE PASSING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.0 WEST OR ABOUT 385
MILES... 615 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND A
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 56.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...PHILIPPE PASSING WELL EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES... 585 KM...
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 56.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[Brent]

HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A SOMEWHAT RAGGED
HURRICANE WITH THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. AN 1156 UTC SSMI
PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSOUS 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE SSMI MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 345/6 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
60W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...SINCE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE TO THE NORTH
THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.

DUE TO THE RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO LESSEN BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 56.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 56.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.2N 58.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.7N 58.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 59.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 27.5N 60.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 59.5W 90 KT

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 192039
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
REMAINS OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD
PATTERN...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/6 KT. THE FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED AS WELL. THE FORECAST MOTION WAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY N THE EXTENDED RANGE SINCE BOTH THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND CONSENSUS TRACKS BEGIN TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS
TRACKS.

MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM RITA WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM.
THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS PHILIPPE TO
A 90-KT HURRICANE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO AGAIN INCREASE IN 96 TO
120 HOURS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CLOSELY BUT IS
FAR LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL WHICH BRINGS PHILIPPE TO A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 18.0N 56.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 56.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.9N 57.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 21.8N 57.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 23.7N 58.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 59.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.5N 59.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 36.0N 56.0W 80 KT

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 355 MILES... 570 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 56.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...PHILIPPE SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340
MILES... 545 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 56.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

ALTHOUGH PHILIPPE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE
IMAGES AND BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT WELL DEFINED...BASED ON THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...THE HURRICANE
HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 70
KT. SOME VERTICAL SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED ON THE HURRICANE DUE TO A
SWATH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE OUTFLOW OF
RITA...NEAR AND NORTH OF 20N. HOWEVER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS SHEAR WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW
STRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...330/5.
TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60W.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 18.3N 56.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 57.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 22.3N 58.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 24.2N 58.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 28.5N 59.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 59.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 37.0N 53.0W 70 KT