What S Florida Local Mets are saying Thread Rita

[havok100]

RE: The birds...
I see plenty of birds hanging out on the rooftops and powerlines here in South Beach. Keeping my eye out for this one, not ready to go to Publix yet.

[T'Bonz]

Tropical Storm Watches now posted for Miami Dade/Broward County...according to Brian Norcross, Hurricane Watches will probably be posted for the same area by 8pm Tonight...Stay Tuned

Hmm. He thought the track would shift north and it shifted south.

[jkt21787]

Tropical Storm Watches now posted for Miami Dade/Broward County...according to Brian Norcross, Hurricane Watches will probably be posted for the same area by 8pm Tonight...Stay Tuned

they don't upgrade watches/warnings at 8 pm, so that doesn't make sense. Furthermore, upgrading a just issued TS watch to a hurricane watch just 3 hours later makes even less sense.

The TS watch will stand for at least during the night, IMO, and be re-evaluated tomorrow morning, unless there is a drastic change in the track/intensity tonight.

If I remember correctly (I'm sure you will all let me know that I am wrong) but didn't they upgrade during the intermedite adv. with Katrina?

they can upgrade in intermediate advisories, but only if the situation is changing rapidly as such. Typically, and most commonly, the upgrades are during the basic advisory times (11 and 5 am/pm). You only see changes in watches/warnings in between that time if the situation is changing so fast that it can't wait for the next "complete" advisory.

There would be no need to upgrade the watch 3 hours from now. It makes no sense whatsoever. They would have issued it as a hurricane watch NOW if they thought that was the valid threat at this time, and I seriously doubt their thinking will change in 3 hours unless this storm strenghtens rapidly in that time, which is not expected.

[DAVE440]

Thats interesting....I was just watching ch7 and they didn't mention anything about any watches at all for dade or broward. Maybe they
got the news too soon b4 going live.

[DAVE440]

Same Met just came back on and mentioned the watches and warnings... now saying Deerfield to Florida City Trop Storm watch.

Keys under hurricane watch.

[Bgator]

I think Miami dad ewill be under hurrican watches at 11....The locatiomn they put the LLC is way to far soith and it look sto be movind wnw!

[jkt21787]

I think Miami dad ewill be under hurrican watches at 11....The locatiomn they put the LLC is way to far soith and it look sto be movind wnw!

Satellite is very deceiving. Remember its being affected by southerly shear.

Recon was just in there, and they had a center fix which is represented in this advisory. Thats where the LLC actually is, not where they decided to "put it".

It could reform later, but right now the true center (LLC) is where NHC has it at.

[Ivanhater]

I think Miami dad ewill be under hurrican watches at 11....The locatiomn they put the LLC is way to far soith and it look sto be movind wnw!

Satellite is very deceiving. Remember its being affected by southerly shear.

Recon was just in there, and they had a center fix which is represented in this advisory. Thats where the LLC actually is, not where they decided to "put it".

It could reform later, but right now the true center (LLC) is where NHC has it at.

didnt recon fix it at 22 and 11min, wouldnt that be 22.7 not 22.2?

[ericinmia]

Sure the LLC might be where they put it... BUT


The Lowest pressure and the highest winds were displaced WELL NORTH EAST of the LLC... they were in the MLC.

That says enough in its own right... i see no reason for him adjusting it southerly. Conservatively he should have left the track as is... until the center becomes more defined. This is only going to add to the error of the eventual track.
-Eric

[mtm4319]

I think Miami dad ewill be under hurrican watches at 11....The locatiomn they put the LLC is way to far soith and it look sto be movind wnw!

Satellite is very deceiving. Remember its being affected by southerly shear.

Recon was just in there, and they had a center fix which is represented in this advisory. Thats where the LLC actually is, not where they decided to "put it".

It could reform later, but right now the true center (LLC) is where NHC has it at.

didnt recon fix it at 22 and 11min, wouldnt that be 22.7 not 22.2?

There are 60 minutes in a degree. It'd be at 22 and 11/60 degrees N; exact 22.2 is 22 degrees and 12 minutes.

[gtalum]

didnt recon fix it at 22 and 11min, wouldnt that be 22.7 not 22.2?

There arre 60 minutes in a degree. So 22 degrees 11 minutes is about 22.2 degrees.

[Ivanhater]

didnt recon fix it at 22 and 11min, wouldnt that be 22.7 not 22.2?

There arre 60 minutes in a degree. So 22 degrees 11 minutes is about 22.2 degrees.

opps, still learning...im only in intro to met

[jkt21787]

Sure the LLC might be where they put it... BUT


The Lowest pressure and the highest winds were displaced WELL NORTH EAST of the LLC... they were in the MLC.

That says enough in its own right... i see no reason for him adjusting it southerly. Conservatively he should have left the track as is... until the center becomes more defined. This is only going to add to the error of the eventual track.
-Eric

Thats very true, but the center of the storm is where the LLC is, NOT where the MLC is. If they put it where the MLC, then in reality they are not tracking the true center of Rita.

He probably shouldn't have gone southward, kept it the same, and see what happens to the center, then make appropriate adjustements.

[ericinmia]

I didn't mean to imply for them to put the center at the mlc if that is what your thinking?

here is what they should have done:

Mark the LLC... call it the center
Tell everyone about the MLC...
Tell them about the winds and pressure are displaced far into the MLC away from the LLC...
Tell everyone about how it will reform...
Tell people not to rely on the model guidance right now, until it gets aligned...
Explain why when and how it will align
Not adjust track at all, if anything simply imply that the track will be about the same... just from a higher starting cord. But NOT move the track southerly on points 24 hours+ from now.... that is stupid.
-Eric

[jkt21787]

I didn't mean to imply for them to put the center at the mlc if that is what your thinking?

here is what they should have done:

Mark the LLC... call it the center
Tell everyone about the MLC...
Tell them about the winds and pressure are displaced far into the MLC away from the LLC...
Tell everyone about how it will reform...
Tell people not to rely on the model guidance right now, until it gets aligned...
Explain why when and how it will align
Not adjust track at all, if anything simply imply that the track will be about the same... just from a higher starting cord. But NOT move the track southerly on points 24 hours+ from now.... that is stupid.
-Eric

Agreed and good points...

[ronjon]

I didn't mean to imply for them to put the center at the mlc if that is what your thinking?

here is what they should have done:

Mark the LLC... call it the center
Tell everyone about the MLC...
Tell them about the winds and pressure are displaced far into the MLC away from the LLC...
Tell everyone about how it will reform...
Tell people not to rely on the model guidance right now, until it gets aligned...
Explain why when and how it will align
Not adjust track at all, if anything simply imply that the track will be about the same... just from a higher starting cord. But NOT move the track southerly on points 24 hours+ from now.... that is stupid.
-Eric

I agree Eric - that didn't make sense to me from the NHC - especially since everything now, winds, lower pressure, convection, are much further N of the reported LLC. They're being too academic & not practial enough.

[StrongWind]

You've got to be kidding me. Hourly updates already? The hype machine is ridiculous, and I bet even more ramped now thanks to Katrina.

It might be "hype" in Memphis, but not for those on the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard.

It is hype to have one hour updates on a TS disturbance with uncertain development.

I'm all for keeping people informed but crying wolf will only just make people jaded, which means they may underprepare for the next serious storm. I think they need to be a little more responsible and keep the hype for storms that deserve it.

Hourly updates can be done w/o hype. It's important to catch people who may have had their tv tuned to HBO (or other non-news/local) all day.

[Windtalker1]

On channel 4 Miami during the Emmy Awards, a weather alert scrolled across the bottom of the screen stating that Rita is heading NW and the current watches will surly be upgraded at the 11pm update...They did not say wht will change to what but my guess is Hurricane watch in the Keys to a Warning, Tropical Storm Watch for Miami Dade & Broward County to a Warning and also have a Hurricane Watch issued for the same area.

[Scorpion]

Maybe they will issue a TS watch up to Jupiter Inlet?

[CentralFlGal]

Expires 6:00 AM EDT on September 19, 2005

Statement as of 11:15 PM EDT on September 18, 2005


... A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued
for coastal Miami-Dade and Broward counties...

... Areas affected...
this statement provides information for persons in Miami-Dade...
Mainland Monroe... Broward... Collier... Palm Beach... Hendry... and
Glades counties in South Florida.

... New information...
updated watches/warnings/storm information
updated wind impact
updated storm tide/storm surge

http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=miami%2C+fl#HUR

Hourly updates are appropriate for TDs with threat potential to major 'canes when you live in hurricane-prone areas. Not everyone sits in front of the tele all day long; folks coming home/going out at different times are sure to get the update if they're looking for it and can prepare accordingly.