What if Katrina had hit Alabama head on? (Riley)

[beachbum_al]

In the Birmingham News I found this and thought it was very interesting.

Riley: What if Katrina hit head-on?
Friday, September 16, 2005
KIM CHANDLER
News staff writer
MONTGOMERY - When Category 4 Hurricane Dennis threatened the Alabama coast in July, Gov. Bob Riley ordered the mandatory evacuation of all of Mobile and most of Baldwin counties 48 hours ahead of landfall.

When Category 5 Hurricane Katrina threatened the Big Easy, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin issued a mandatory evacuation of the below-sea-level city 20 hours before landfall.

Dennis turned out to be not much worse than a severe summer thunderstorm for much of the coast. And Riley took a verbal beating as 500,000 people sat on jammed highways trying to return home.
Katrina, of course, turned out to be as catastrophic as feared, and local and federal officials are drawing criticism for what's being called a bungled preparation and response.

Riley said in an interview this week that he was satisfied with the state's response to Katrina. Many local officials in south Alabama say they also are pleased. But some - even Riley - are wondering how Alabama would have fared if Katrina had landed directly on us, instead of Mississippi and Louisiana.

After facing three monster hurricanes within a year's time - Ivan, Dennis and Katrina - Riley said state officials have learned lessons, and gotten better, with each response. When Katrina blew through, Riley said, "I think it worked beautifully."

Riley said the state prepared resources to move into storm-struck areas soon after the winds cleared. Alabama Emergency Management Agency director Bruce Baughman said the agency had arranged for 55,000 bags of ice, 164,000 gallons of water and 108,000 prepackaged meals.

Additionally, 450 National Guard soldiers were ready to go to Mobile and Baldwin counties to help with traffic and security.

Bayou La Batre, a fishing village in south Mobile County, received some of the worst damage in Alabama from Katrina. An estimated 800 structures were unlivable after the storm surge ripped inland.

In the days after the storm, Bayou La Batre Mayor Stan Wright said he was largely pleased with the state's response. Ice and water were delivered in the town within 48 hours of Katrina, although supplies were exhausted within hours. Also within days of the storm, there were plans to bring in modular trailers as temporary housing for the estimated 3,000 people with damaged or destroyed homes, he said.

After Hurricane Ivan, Atmore Mayor Howard Shell berated the state as his people sat without ice and water for three days while listening to radio reports about deliveries in coastal counties. By contrast, Shell said, state assistance has been quick with the last two storms.

"We've had excellent communications after Ivan. I've got to say it was a learning experience for a lot of us," Shell said.

State Health Officer Don Williamson said the state has improved in establishing and staffing shelters for the sick and infirm.

Plan for nursing homes:

Some of the most horrific deaths from Katrina occurred in a New Orleans nursing home. Williamson said Alabama has relatively few nursing homes below Interstate 10, but he wants evacuation plans for those to be reviewed.

"I hope we would have done better than New Orleans appears to have done. But one of the reasons it looks like we did so well is because we were relatively spared," Williamson said.

Riley declined to compare Alabama's preparedness with Louisiana's and Mississippi's, but he defended his early evacuation order during Dennis in July.

"When we made that call on the evacuation the last time in Mobile, if it had gone into Mobile Bay, we would have seen the level of destruction that you see around Biloxi," Riley said.

Riley said he wants the state to run scenarios on what would happen if a Katrina-like storm hit Mobile and Baldwin counties dead-on.

"Let's say, `What if?' You've got to prepare for the worst contingencies," Riley said.

He is concerned about having adequate shelters in coastal counties for a Katrina-esque storm. "If we have a shortcoming right now, (it) is I don't have any level 4 or 5 shelters," Riley said.

Beginning with Ivan, Alabama put into use a plan to reverse traffic flow on Interstate 65 during an evacuation, so all lanes were headed northward. The plan worked for those who had cars, but some are concerned about those who don't.

"It seems to me that New Orleans really was a wake-up call. Shouldn't we have plans to load up city buses and schools buses to evacuate Mobile?" asked Kimble Forrister, state coordinator for Alabama Arise, an advocacy organization for the poor.


http://www.al.com/news/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1126862670216320.xml&coll=2&thispage=1

When Ivan threaten the Mobile area last year people thought Riley had lost his mind making all areas south of I-10 leave. That included the Daphne, Fairhope, Robertsdale, etc to leave. They moved the patients and nursing homes to facilities further north. I remember thinking why would they close down Thomas Hospital.

Well I think Katrina is the reason or should I say example of why he did this a year ago. After seeing what Katrina did I know why. I have always thought I was safe in Fairhope because some of the town is at least 30 to 50 ft above sea level but I wonder now. What if Katrina had came up through Mobile Bay? What if we got a direct hit? I think this is what scares me the most...It could had been us. Gov Riley also had a mandatory evac during Dennis for us. They kept calling places including City Hall until someone answer. I will never question my Governor again because in my opinion after seeing what happen in LA, MS, and AL from Katrina I think he has done the right thing!

[thunderchief]

I wonder where USS Alabama would have ended up, if the surge had been ~30 feet.

[f5]

heck she even pushed an oil rig into a bridge which is amazing just looking at the sheer size of that thing.If Katrina would of landed in al it would make Ivan look like a TS.but instead this hurricane picked a nice spot and that spot is NO.

[LAwxrgal]

heck she even pushed an oil rig into a bridge which is amazing just looking at the sheer size of that thing.If Katrina would of landed in al it would make Ivan look like a TS.but instead this hurricane picked a nice spot and that spot is NO.

Actually she landfalled south of NOLA and moved slightly east of the city pushing surge into the lake and decimating all of the Mississippi gulf coast and parts of Alabama. I shudder to think what would have happened had this thing gone into Mobile Bay. A catastrophe for sure.

This storm would have been catastrophic no matter where it made landfall.

[wxmann_91]

She made landfall in the worst possible spot where NO, Mississippi, and Alabama were all affected. Had she made landfall to the east NO would've been spared. Had she made landfall to the west Mobile would've been spared.

[f5]

She made landfall in the worst possible spot where NO, Mississippi, and Alabama were all affected. Had she made landfall to the east NO would've been spared. Had she made landfall to the west Mobile would've been spared.

that would be on the west side of NO