Headed for Alpha?-(Probably)

[JTD]

I just spent some time reviewing active seasons. I started off by reviewing 2004:

After September 18th. 2004 four additional storms during the rest of the season (Lisa, Matthew, Nicole and Otto).

After September 18, 2003, 7 count em 7 tropical systems developed (Juan, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette and Peter)

After September 18, 1995, 5 tropical systems developed (Noel, Opal, Pablo, Roxanne, Sebastian and Tanya)

Using these 3 years as analog years, I would rate the chances of seeing Alpha as say 60-40 since it is not that far fletched to expect anywhere between 3-8 new storms based on history.

I venture to say that 2005 will be the worst hurricane season ever recorded in the Atlantic basin (one whose economic, social, and emotional costs will never be forgotten)

It's also interesting that 2005 and 1995 were both hyperactive. It's coincidental of course but interesting.

[wxmann_91]

Probably but not definately.

2002 only saw two storms form after Sept. 21.

1936 saw only one storm after Sept. 19, after an extremely active start (many of the earliest named storm records broken this year were set by 1936).

So theoretically, it is entirely possible that we only see one or two more named storms this year. But that is extremely unlikely.

[wxwatcher91]

I definitely think Alpha will happen this year

has anyone considered the possibility of activity hanging around into January?? the activeness of this year could tack onto next year's numbers!

[gilbert88]

has anyone considered the possibility of activity hanging around into January?? the activeness of this year could tack onto next year's numbers!

That would be like the mother of all tropical activity records.

[JTD]

Given that the atlantic is now moving into the wet MJO phase, I think that the odds are pretty low of activity kind of dying off.

This wet MJO should send the Atlantic flying.

We'll have to watch MJO, shear, dry air, etc very closely though.

[wxmann_91]

has anyone considered the possibility of activity hanging around into January?? the activeness of this year could tack onto next year's numbers!

That would be like the mother of all tropical activity records.

It could happen...

[cjrciadt]

Also happened in 1978, nothing is out of reach in the past 3 seasons.